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The Long-Term Effects of War

The Long-Term Effects of War. James P. Smith RAND Corporation. Co-Authors on this Research. Iris Kesternich (Leuven), Bettina Siflinger (Tilburg), and Joachim Winter (Munich) Maximiliane Hoerl (Munich), Carina Steckenleiter (St. Gallen). My War is WW2. WW2 a catastrophic event

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The Long-Term Effects of War

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  1. The Long-Term Effects of War James P. Smith RAND Corporation

  2. Co-Authors on this Research Iris Kesternich (Leuven), Bettina Siflinger (Tilburg), and Joachim Winter (Munich) Maximiliane Hoerl (Munich), Carina Steckenleiter (St. Gallen)

  3. My War is WW2 • WW2 a catastrophic event • 39 million deaths in Europe and large lost of physical capital – 3% of world’s pop died in war • Persecution and property dispossession widespread • Many children without a father and women without a partner • Horrendous crimes against humanity • Political systems permanently altered • My question is • What were long term health and SES effects

  4. Topics Covered – the Impacts of WW2 on Whom? Not the contemporaneous effects Had to be alive in 2008- still living in continental SHARE SURVEY EUROPE Not the effects on participant soldiers and contemporary adults Not the Holocaust survivors who mostly did migrate Health outcomes 60 years later so one had to be relatively young during the war

  5. Topics Covered – Pathways Hunger Trust Unbalanced sex ratios Interspousal health correlations Absence of father

  6. DATA - SHARELIFE SHARE: Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Random sample of western continental European population age 50+ in 13 countries in 2008 Austria, Belgium,Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland SHARE Wave 1 (2004/05) , SHARE Wave 2 (2006/07), SHARE Wave 4+ 2010 and every two years there after Information about current life circumstances, health, SES, retirement, cognition, etc SHARE Wave 3 (2008) - Retrospective recording of pre-survey life history including WW2 period QUALITY OF RETRO DATA VERY GOOD

  7. DATA - EXTERNAL Experience of Combat operations by civilians by time and living region and length of combat within countries Civilian and Military causalities Caloric Restrictions by Time and Region in Germany Macro GDP growth rates and mortality by civilian/military Migration to and from countries Sex ratios by country, age, and year

  8. DATA – CURRENT SHARE OUTCOME MEASURES HEALTH – (DEPRESSION, DIABETES, HEART DISEASE, HEIGHT, OTHER) ECONOMIC – (EDUCATION, LN NET WORTH, LN INCOME) MARRIAGE (CURRENT STATUS, LENGTH OF MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, NUMBER OF KIDS)

  9. Channels Investigated • Macro GPD and Mortality Effects • Demographic - % father absent, sex ratios • Civilian experience of combat and hunger episodes • Dispossession, persecution, and migration

  10. Channels - GDP Macro EffectsGDP per Head Relative to USA

  11. Mortality and WW2

  12. % Father Absent at Age 10

  13. % Hungry

  14. Hunger Self-reports and WW2

  15. Hunger Self-reports and WW2

  16. Self-Reports of Hunger and Imposed Caloric Restrictions in Germany – self report is fraction hungry

  17. Ratio of Men to Women

  18. % Dispossessed

  19. Model Estimates - Before We Begin Some Selection Issues – Fertility, Mortality, and Migration • We have confined our analysis to the native-born in each country • Migration outflows significant in Czech Republic, Poland, and Germany • Migration during and after WW2 was quite difficult since not encouraged by receiving countries • Cannot dismiss that selective migration may play a role

  20. Types of Models Estimated • Kesternich, Siflinger, Smith, Winter • (1) Yitc = β1 * waritc + ß2 * malei + λt + ηc + εitc • Yitc is a health, SES, or channel outcome of individual i in time t in country c • Fixed effects for country (ηc) and time (λt ) • War measure • War1 = lived in a war country in a time of war- includes post war Germany and Austria (1946-1948) • War2 =number of months exposed to war 0, -0-2, 3 or more • Spain excluded due to civil war in late 1930s

  21. Models of Channels of War Effects – War1 Variable

  22. Models of Channels of War Effects – War2 Combat Variable

  23. Adult Health Outcomes with WW2 – War1 Variable

  24. Adult Health Outcomes with WW2 – War 2 Combat Variable

  25. Adult SES Outcomes with WW2 – War1 Variable

  26. Adult SES Outcomes with WW2 – War2 Combat Variable

  27. More on Hunger- It’s not just biology (see Barker) • Self- report Effects are actually strongest when hunger is experienced at ‘older’ childhood years

  28. Self-Reporting of Hunger Against Caloric Restriction

  29. More on Hunger- It’s not just biology (see Barker) • Early Life Hunger could make one risk adverse about another such experience at older ages • One possible behavioral strategy is to increase food consumption share especially when income is low as an adult • Increases obesity and diabetes and poor health

  30. It’s not just biology- the adult poor who suffered from hunger as kids consume more food share as adults

  31. ANOTHER PATHWAY- ADULT TRUST Trust is important for Adult Social interactions We examined exposure to monthly caloric restrictions during and right after WW2 on trust decades later in Germany Use German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) Representative of German Population since 1984 Use our data on region and time variation in caloric rations

  32. ANOTHER PATHWAY- ADULT TRUST Trust of strangers is measured in three questions in 2003 On the whole can you trust people Nowadays one can’t rely on any one In dealing with strangers, it is better to be careful than trust them 4 categories (1,2,3,4) of response with 1 indicating less trust At any point of time calories restriction may vary a lot with in the population – eg farmers Question raised is why them and not me

  33. Another Pathway- Adult Trust Against Caloric Restriction

  34. Effects of Sex Ratios- EmpiricalStrategy • main specification: link individuals fertility and marriage outcomes with sex ratio in 1946 andcovariates • yicr=α+β(sexratio1946)cr+xꞌicrγ+λ5c +µr+εicr • sex ratio in birth cohort c and regionr • λ5c: 5-year cohort fixed effects; µr: regionfixed effects • x: educational attainmentmother/father • standard errors clustered on residencelevel • aboveregressionestimatedoverlifecycleattargetages20, 23,25,28,30,33, 35,38,40, 43, 45, 48,50 • interpretation: reduction in sex ratio from 10 men in every 10 women by 1 man to9 men in every 10women

  35. Unbalanced Sex Ratios and Total Fertility 1 1.251.5 .75 coefficients 0 .25 .5 -1 -.75 -.5-.25 20232528303335384043454850 age • reduction fertility at younger ages: 6.7% reduction #kids at mean (1.24) of age28 • catching up fertility later: 1.7% increase #kids at mean (2.03) of age50 • → importance of time at which long-term permanent effectsevaluated

  36. Pathway:Unbalanced Sex Ratios and Age FirstMarriage 1.5 1 coefficients .5 0 -.5 -1 20232528303335384043454850 age • increase age marriage at any age compared to high sex ratiopeers • 12.4% reduction in being married at mean (0.501) of age23 • 6.8% (3.2%) reduction in being married atage 25 (28) • 1.3% increase in being married at age45 • → negative consequences offset in longrun

  37. MainSpecification:Summary • high permanent imbalance in sex ratio leadsto • lower total fertility at younger ages(23–30) compared to high sex ratiopeers • catching up with high sex ratio peers at any age later than 35 until completed fertility (age50) • → higher probability of being unmarried and childless in 20s but catching upand • overcompensation from 30s to completedfertility

  38. The Northern Irish Future- Childhood Mental Health is Likely Very Important at Older Ages My research shows mental health is very important Similar Findings in USA and England USA based on retrospective PSID England based on prospective birth cohorts (1958 -1970) Need retrospective data on childhood and early adult years mental health challenges in NICOLA and TILDA

  39. Estimated Impacts of Poor Childhood Health on Adult Socioeconomic Status - PSID

  40. 1958 British Cohort- Effects on Schooling and Employment

  41. 1958 British Cohort- Effects on Ln Hourly Wages

  42. 1958 British Cohort- Effects on Ln Family Income

  43. 1970 British Cohort- Effects on Schooling and Employment

  44. 1970 British Cohort- Effects on Wages and Family Income

  45. Next Great Step- Nicola and TILDA Retrospective • Perhaps the richest diversity of early life experiences of any HRS countries around the world • The “troubles” but much more • The truth will ground the speculation

  46. Proportion in Bad Health by Years of Birth Cohort- The Irish Republic

  47. Retro Percentage Abused of All Irish-born by Birth Cohort—TILDA

  48. Main Conclusions • Retrospective events reported by individuals match the historical facts of the War • Large later-life Health and SES effects for those who experienced the war the most • Civilian experience of combat not the primary pathway • rather hunger, dispossession, persecution, and an absent father or husband are more important • Lets do a RETRO in NICOLA and TILDA • Make Love not War

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