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Planning for Performance Based Solutions

Planning for Performance Based Solutions. Brian Isaacson, AICP Program Director, MnDOT Metro Program Management. Overview. Process followed Initial results Problems… Reasonableness? Conclusions…. Process Followed. Developed traffic forecasts

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Planning for Performance Based Solutions

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  1. Planning for Performance Based Solutions Brian Isaacson, AICP Program Director, MnDOT Metro Program Management

  2. Overview • Process followed • Initial results • Problems… • Reasonableness? • Conclusions…

  3. Process Followed • Developed traffic forecasts • Based on Metro Council/State demographer population and employment forecasts • Used current regional plan network assumptions (almost no improvements in study area)

  4. Initial results… • Traffic volumes – • Similar to those on I-494 in Bloomington • Design effect: • Called for 12 lane cross section on I-94, 6 lanes on TH 610 • Directional movements at many of the ramps connecting I-94 and TH 610 • High ROW need

  5. Problems… • Forecasted volumes seemed high for the area • Peaking characteristics • Daily forecast volumes • Called demographic assumptions into question • Both had dramatic effect on potential design • Ancillary concern that at this scale, the project would potentially be too expensive to deliver in any reasonable timeframe

  6. Reasonableness? • Re-examined demographics • Population and employment trends vs. expected 2030 figures • Revisited volumes at key locations • Entering volumes at District boundary exceeded what is possible…

  7. This….

  8. Would have to look like this…

  9. What to do? • Need to make distinction between • Known/existing volumes and demographics • Those attributable to development that has yet to be realized/appear on the horizon • Update traffic forecasts based on revised demographics

  10. Known vs. Future

  11. Revised results • Volumes consistent with rest of the region • Design effect: • Analysis of existing vs. speculative volumes provides insights as to which movements are “required” • Potentially allows for reduced cross section (mainline I-94 and TH 610) • Reduced ROW imapcts under reduced cross section

  12. Conclusions… • Risk assessment is an element of the overall forecasting process – now more than ever… • Rates of growth (demographic and volume) are all worth analyzing in greater detail • With the level of uncertainty in the current economic climate, the emphasis should be on known values (employment, population, volumes) as touchstones for analysis • Identifying the gap between existing and future – understanding the likelihood that the future

  13. Closing thought… • The greater the discrepancy between known/existing values and projected values (and their potential effect on design/scope), the greater the need for understanding the probability of how long/under what circumstances will bring the future conditions to fruition

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