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FY07 Hydro Group Proposals to AHPS SLF Theme Team

FY07 Hydro Group Proposals to AHPS SLF Theme Team. Mike Smith October 12, 2006. Hydrology Lab. HSEB. HSMB. Hydro Ensemble Prediction Group. Hydro-Met Analysis Group. Design Studies Center. Hydrologic Modeling Group. Hydraulic Modeling Group. Seann Reed Mike Smith

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FY07 Hydro Group Proposals to AHPS SLF Theme Team

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  1. FY07 Hydro Group Proposalsto AHPS SLF Theme Team Mike Smith October 12, 2006

  2. Hydrology Lab HSEB HSMB Hydro Ensemble Prediction Group Hydro-Met Analysis Group Design Studies Center Hydrologic Modeling Group Hydraulic Modeling Group

  3. Seann Reed Mike Smith Victor Koren Fekadu Moreda Ziya Zhang Zhengtao Cui Fan Lei (10/31) Eric Anderson (1/4) Who is in our group? Victor Ziya Fekadu Fan Mike Seann (Contractor) Zhengtao

  4. Hydrologic Modeling Group General R&D Topics to Meet NOAA/NWS Goals Improved Calibration Tools -CAP -ICP Improved Site Specific Model Energy Budget Snow Models (SNODAS) Statistical Distributed Flash flood model Distributed Snow-17 - Better Forecast Accuracy - More Specific and Timely information on Fast Rising Floods Improved Calibration Science -Multi-objective -Soil moisture + Other obs. Distributed Rainfall/Runoff Models Improved Initial Model Parameters New rainfall-runoff Models -DMIP 1,2 - Prototype Products for Water Resources Program Soil Moisture Soil Tempature Surface Water

  5. SLF Proposed Projects Thursday October 12, 2006 1. Calibration R&D 2.Prototype water resource products

  6. 1. Calibration R&DFY07 Tasks • Need • Must deliver calibration tools to keep pace with new science releases, e.g., distributed modeling, ability to compute soil moisture, finer time/space scales etc. • Reduce overall effort to calibrate models (all models need calibration!) • Meet AHPS goals

  7. FY06 AHPS FundingCalibration R&D

  8. 1. Calibration R&DFY06 Accomplishments • Soil moisture and calibration • Submit paper on Simplified Line Search (SLS) to OHD review • Presented findings at major int’l. hydrology conference • Explored use of X-DMS as a way to look for spatially uniform precip for lumped models. (DMIP 2)

  9. ObservedSimulated Discharge Objective function: Minimize errors ObservedSimulated Soil Moisture 0-25 cm depth ObservedSimulated Soil Moisture 25-75 cm depth

  10. 1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.1 Incorporate soil moisture, temperature into lumped and distributed SAC calibration strategy • Develop ‘proof of concept’ narrative • Explore appropriate weighted objective functions • Explore other search algorithms • Develop appropriate averaging of soil moisture, temperature over desired area • Deliverables • Guidelines on how to do it • Prototype calibration tools • Requirements for ICP enhancements

  11. 1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.2 Enhance Existing Statistics Program: STAT-Q What is STAT-Q? -Analyzes two time series for run-period and event statistics; prototype sent to all RFC’s several years ago, sub-daily time steps -Complements NWSRFS STAT-QME operation (limited to daily flows) 1.2.1 Tasks • Add ability to analyze multiple time series (more than current two) • Add ability to output to Excel, ‘R’ etc for easy plotting • Create HOSIP documents for AWIPS 1.2.2 Deliverables • Updated prototype tool and documentation • HOSIP documents for AWIPS delivery

  12. 1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.3 Auto-calibration of lumped and distributed models Proposed Approach: Auto calb. algorithm & a priori parameters 1.3.1 Tasks - Modify distributed model to efficiently link to auto-calb procedures (current approach: manual scaling of parameters) • Explore appropriate multi-time scale objective functions • Determine appropriate search algorithms for this approach • Develop requirements to add new algorithms and new obj. functions to AWIPS NWSRFS OPT3 program 1.3.2 Deliverables • Prototype distributed, lumped calibration tools • Requirements for ICP enhancements for lumped tools • Requirements for modifying NWSRFS OPT3 to include new items Minimize K= hours, days, months,…

  13. 1. Calibration R&D Cost Estimates

  14. Prototype Water Resource Products • - Motivation 1. FY07 Hydrology Program Annual Guidance Memorandum Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services • Produce water resource information fields from distributed models to support water resource management and environmental stewardship 2. NOAA AGM 2008-2012, page 8

  15. Prototype Water Resource Products • - Motivation, cont’d 3. Existing RFC needs: ‘We are also interested in the modified SAC model, particularly since we are somewhat “on the hook” to try to develop a soil moisture product (graphic) which conveys the current model states. This has been a recurring request (several years) which we have delayed, but was recently placed on a list in Central Region which specifies that we begin attempts to address this.” John Halquist, March 18, 2005

  16. Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006 Water Resource Services Physical Sciences Observe Watershed and soil condition forecasts for hazard resilient communities • Run-off or River flow • Soil moisture • Soil temperature • Precipitation • Snowpack • Surface storage • Ground water • Water temperature • Water quality Short- to long-term water risk information to support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship Monitor & Predict Physical Science Research Analyze Inform Risk Reduction Research Planning Education Socioeconomic Sciences Mitigating Action

  17. Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006 High Resolution Soil Moisture Forecasts – near term activities Test prototype version of soil moisture products from CONUS runs of HL-RDHM and compare with other models Implementation of HL-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model uses: • Hillslope routing within each model cell • Cell-to-cell channel routing • Uncalibrated, a-priori parameters for Sacramento (SAC-SMA) and channel routing models

  18. Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006; Moreda et al., 2005 Use of Soil Moisture to Evaluate Distributed Models Initial test results: October 1998 – September 1999; 75 basins within the Oklahoma Mesonet HL-Distributed Model MOSAIC NCEP NLDAS HL model Higher Correlation Upper 10cm Lower 30cm 12

  19. FY07 Tasks • Continued evaluation of prototype products • Illinois (other) soil moisture data • Soil temperature data • Formal analysis of results from New Mexico rangeland study. • Contribute to and leverage related projects • NLDAS: NCEP sponsored CONUS scale runs of several models • Leverage independent analyses of models and data • Compare NLDAS coarse scale to OHD fine-scale products • Analyze surface water storage as new product

  20. 2. Prototype WR Products Cost Estimates

  21. 2. Prototype WR Products: Deliverables

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