Proposal to the GOES-R Program Office

1. In Response to a Request for New Projects on Multi-Sensor, Multi-Platform Products Proposal to the GOES-R Program Office A Blended, Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index Presented at the GOES-R Risk Reduction Review July 24, 2009

2. Outline • Project Team • Motivation • Project Summary • Motivation for Improved Rapid Intensity Prediction • Pieces of the Puzzle • Multiplatform prediction algorithm • Relevance to the GOES-R Program • Need for 2010 funding cycle • Coordination with on-going projects • Budget

3. Project Team • John Knaff and Mark DeMaria • NESDIS/STAR/RAMMB • John Kaplan • OAR/AOML Hurricane Research Division • Jonathan Vigh • NCAR Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division • Andrea Schumacher • CIRA/CSU (soon to be Texas A&M) • Chris Velden and Chris Rozoff • CIMSS/UW

4. Project Motivation • Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) • Very poorly forecast by NHC • Large societal impact when it occurs near landfall time • Coastal evacuations inadequate • Improper preparation for wind damage • Potential for large loss of life • Number #1 priority for forecast improvements by NHC and JTWC

5. Hurricane Charley 2004 • Max winds increased from 95 kt to 125 kt in last 6 hours before landfall • NHC forecast showed 5 kt increase before landfall • Forecast models showed slow intensification

6. Pieces of the Puzzle-1The Operational Rapid Intensity Index • Developed by Kaplan/DeMaria under JHT funding • Current JHT project for additional improvement using OHC, TPW & GOES IR EOF analyses. • Provides probability of RIC • 30 kt max wind increase in 24 hr • Better skill than all models and NHC • Still has large False alarm rate • Input • Large-scale predictors from NCEP GFS • GOES data for storm’s convective strength and asymmetry • SST and Ocean Heat Content • Little mesoscale structure input Weights for RI Index Discriminant Analysis Function

7. Pieces of the Puzzle-2CIRA GOES-R Risk Reduction Project • Investigation RIC forecast improvements from GOES-R • GLM Proxy – World Wide Lightning Locator Network (WWLLN) data • ABI Proxy – SEVERI • Initial emphasis on WWLLN and RIC • Large-scale environment from NCEP GFS model analyses • Comparison of RIC and non-RIC sample means tests utility for input into discriminant analysis • No microwave input being considered Lightning density for RI and non-RI cases in low and high shear regimes

8. Pieces of the Puzzle-3Preliminary Studies with Microwave Imagery • Microwave imagery (MI) available from multiple sensors • SSM/I, SSMIS, TMI, AMSR-E, ASMU-B, Windsat • Ring structure in MI signal of mesoscale eyewall formation • Ring precursor to rapid intensification • Keiper (2008), Vigh (2009) • Often precedes signal in GOES IR • MI also helps identify secondary eyewall formation • Kossin and Sitkowski (2009)

9. Microwave Imagery for Hurricane Rita (2005) 55k 60 kt 75 kt 95k 115 kt 145 kt

10. Current Project Putting the Pieces Together • Using NHC operational RI Index discriminant analysis algorithm to combine info from multiple sources • Convective organization from MI • Lightning activity from GLM proxy • Cloud top structure from GOES and ABI proxy • Large scale environment from NCEP GFS model • Ocean input from SST and Ocean Heat Content analyses • Develop experimental RI Index

11. Team Contributions • RAMMB/CIRA/CSU (Knaff, DeMaria, Schumacher) • Project oversight, GFS, SST, OHC, GOES, ABI and GLM proxy database analysis • Combined MI algorithm development • JHT coordination for algorithm testing • OAR/HRD (Kaplan) • Adaptation of operational RI Index • Coordination with JHT • NCAR/MMM (Vigh) • Theoretical guidance • Microwave database analysis • CIMSS/UW (Velden Rozoff) • Microwave database analysis • Combined algorithm development

12. Relevance to the GOES-R Program • Improved Rapid Intensity Change (RIC) techniques listed as #1 priority of NHC and JTWC in most recent Joint Hurricane Testbed announcement • RIC forecasting is high priority in NOAA • No MI-based method currently exists • GOES-R GLM and ABI have large potential to improve RIC forecasting • Should be combined with other information • Official GOES-R Algorithm Working Group list includes just one product specifically for hurricanes • Improved Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) • ADT will help estimate initial intensity, but will have little impact on forecasting

13. Reasons for 2010 Funding Cycle • New Joint Hurricane Testbed project to improve existing rapid intensity index with microwave TPW product, improved surface flux estimates, EOF analysis of current GOES • Can leverage methods developed via JHT funding • Can leverage JHT testing for GOES-R project • Possible GOES-R proving ground emphasis at NHC and HRD in 2010 • Overlap with NASA/HRD 2010 hurricane field project • Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP)

14. Budget Estimate • Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, John Kaplan • STAR, OAR Base • Jonathan Vigh • NCAR Advanced Study Program (ASP) • CIRA research associate support $40K • HRD programming support $20K • CIMSS research scientist support $40K • Total FY10 funding request: $100K