Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin America

1. EULAKS FLACSO, México 2008 Core elements of Foresight in Europe and Latin America Rafael Popper – rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester

2. About the Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (PREST) Our Research is broadly grouped into five key themes that reflect both strengths of the Institute and areas of potential growth: • Technology strategy and innovation management, covering a wide range of topics relating to R&D, innovation strategy, internationalisation and tacit knowledge. There is particular interest in themes such as innovation in defence and security and in medical innovation • Services and organisational innovation reflecting Manchester's outstanding track record of research in this field. This covers a range of topics including measurement, management and outsourcing • Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence draws on the extensive and long-standing reputation of Manchester in this field and developments in key areas such as foresight and evaluation of technology programmes • Innovation and sustainability is a rapidly growing area of activity which covers environmental management, sustainable consumption and recycling. There is close collaboration with colleagues at the Tyndall Centre in Manchester • Innovation, innovation systems and economic development covering familiar issues such as innovation and national and regional development as well as important emerging themes such as innovation as a sustainable route out of poverty in developing economies. Manchester has a particularly outstanding record in the understanding of the dynamics of innovation through evolutionary approaches.

3. http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=3977 • Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for thedevelopment and implementation of research and innovation policy. • The main focus of activity has been at national levelas governments have sought to: • set priorities; • build networksbetween science and industry; • change the administrative culture & research systems and; • encompass structured debates with wider participationleading to the creation of common visions.

4. Pro. F Pol. Par.

5. Evolution of Foresight Programmes/Exercises

6. Why? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

7. Rationale 1: Directing or prioritising investment in STI (Setting general research directions by identifying previously unknown opportunities) Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Informing funding and investment priorities, including direct prioritisation exercises; • Eliciting the research and innovation agenda within a previously defined field; • Reorienting the science and innovation system to match national needs, particularly in the case of transition economies; • Helping to benchmark the national science and innovation system in terms of areas of strength and weakness, and to identify competitive threats and collaborative opportunities; • Raising the profile of science and innovation in government as means of attracting investment.

8. Rationale 2: Building new networks and linkages around a common vision Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Building networks and strengthening communities around shared problems (especially where work on these problems has been compartmentalised and is lacking a common language); • Building trust between participants unused to working together; • Aiding collaboration across administrative and epistemic boundaries; • Highlighting interdisciplinary opportunities.

9. Rationale 3: Extending the breadth of knowledge and visions in relation to the future Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Increasing understanding and changing mindsets, especially about future opportunities and challenges; • Providing anticipatory intelligence to system actors as to the main directions, agents, and rapidity of change; • Building visions of the future that can help actors recognise more or less desirable paths of development and the choices that help determine these.

10. Rationale 4: Bringing new actors into the strategic debate Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Increasing the number and involvement of system actors in decision-making, both to access a wider pool of knowledge and to achieve more democratic legitimacy in the policy process; • Extending the range of types of actor participating in decision-making relating to science, technology and innovation issues.

11. Rationale 5: Improving policy-making and strategy formation in areas where science and innovation play a significant role Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Informing policy and public debates in these areas; • Improve policy implementation by enabling informed “buy-in” to decision-making processes (for example, so that participants in foresight activities are able to use the understanding acquired here to argue the case for change, and to bring it to bear in more specialised areas than the Programme as a whole has been able to).

12. How? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

13. Foresight should be carefully planned(Popper, 2008) Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Rationales • Sponsor(s) • Objectives • Orientation • Resources • Core team * • Time • Money • Infrastructure • Cultural • Political • Approaches • Time horizon • Methodology • Workplan • Activities • Tasks • Deliverables • Scope • - Context • Coverage • Project team * • - skills • Partners • Sub-contractors • Steering Group • Experts • - Thematic • Sectoral • - Regional • National • International • Champions • Thematic • … • International • Panels • Methodologist • Facilitators • Rapporteurs Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (e.g. elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) Advising - Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations - … Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making - … • Learning • - Process • - Products • Evaluation • Impacts • Efficiency • Appropriateness • Dissemination • - Shared Visions • - Foresight Culture • - … The Foresight Diamond Step 5: evaluating KNOWLEDGE Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipationof possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues

16. Who? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

17. http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_outlook_gfo_2007.pdfhttp://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/efmn_global_foresight_outlook_gfo_2007.pdf Mapping Sample Over 1600 cases R. Popper (2008)

19. Global foresight practices (1/3) The main sponsor of foresight is the Government The main users of foresight are the Gov. depts/agencies Research Community Firms

20. Global foresight practices (2/3) The most common time horizons are 10,15,20 years The most common territorial scopes are National Sub-national

21. Guides & Handbooks Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008) • Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007) • Global Foresight Outlook (2007) http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/foresight/rif_guide.pdf http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/efmn/gfo_2007.pdf • The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook • Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages)

22. EU Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC • TFP created in 1999 • Main actors • UNIDO • Governmental agencies and departments • Main objectives • Foresight culture • High-level political awareness • Industrial & technological development • Main activities • Capacity building / Training courses • Seminars / conferences • Sectoral / industrial exercises • Publications • Main countries • Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela

23. Foresight in Mexico • Main actors • Javier Barros Sierra Foundation • College of Mexico • Autonomous University of Mexico • Technological Institute of Monterrey • Foresight outlook • In the 1980s Mexico led the first Latin initiative to promote the integration of foresight efforts in many countries, the so-called Technological Prospective for Latin America (TEPLA), which helped to translate selected European foresight experiences into Spanish. • In 1990s the country showed a decline in regional leadership • Since 2000 foresight work has begun torecover. • Current activities are mainly related to entrepreneurial foresight and efforts of public institutions focused on education, science and technology. • There is also a Mexican node of the Millennium Project, a chapter of the World Futures Society (WFS) and an online journal for prospective studies which has provided a space for disseminating experiences in Spanish • capacity-building and teaching programmes • Whilst Mexico has a long tradition in forecasting and futures research, it has yet to organise a fully-fledged national foresight programme.

24. EU Foresight in Argentina • TFP created in 2000 • Main actors • Secretary for Science & Technology - SECyT • UNIDO link • Main activities • Learning from international experiences • diagnostic studies in 3 sectors: Biotechnology, Chemical and Textile industries • Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001) • (most recent) Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015 (not called foresight!) • started in October 2003, completed in 2005 • coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation (ONCTIP) • Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas • Over 4,000 people involved • Main goals: • To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI • To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities • To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007 • To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP

25. EU Foresight in Chile • TFP Created in 2001 • Main actor • Ministry of Economy • Main objectives • discovery pathways toward a desired future • identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement. • Main methods • Brainstorming • Delphi • Main activities • ‘e-ducation industry’: ICT applied to Education • aquaculture industry • wine production and exports • biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture • biotechnology applied to forest industry • the Chilean software industry.

26. Foresight in Cuba • Main actor • Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT) • Main objectives • Monitoring emerging technologies • developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors • developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed to reactive • Main methods • Technology watch (trends & disruptions) • Brainstorming • Delphi • Main activities • Health • Biotechnology • Information technology

27. EU Foresight in Peru • Main actors • UNIDO link since 2001 • CONCYTEC since 2002 • Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002 • Main objectives • Build foresight capabilities • Support exercises in strategic sectors (mainly pilots!) • Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners • Main methods • Brainstorming • SWOT • Scenarios • Cross-impact • Main activities • textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea products and water, new materials, energy, housing and construction and tourism

28. Foresight in Uruguay • Main actors • Presidency • UNIDO link (2000) • Various ministries • Main objectives • competitive industrialization of the country • integration of knowledge in the value chain • Main methods • Brainstorming • Surveys • Panels • Delphi • Scenarios & recommendations • Main activities • Energy • Transport and logistic • Biotechnology & agriculture

29. EU Foresight in Venezuela • Main actors • MCT, CENDES, IESA • UNIDO link • UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA, UNESR, 4-sight-group • Main objectives • Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises • Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological sovereignty • Main methods • Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog, Interviews • Main activities • Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry; Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011 • National Plan for STI 2005-2030 • Main actors • FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES, universities • Main objectives: • To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders • To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people • To promote a selective assimilation of technologies • To promote pertinent technological developments

30. EU Foresight in Brazil • Main actors • MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq • UNIDO link (with MDIC) • UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others • CGEE • Main objective • To inform both government and industry about possible impacts of S&T trends • Main methods • Brainstorming • Prioritisation workshops and surveys • Delphi • Scenarios & cross-impact • Main activities • Brazil 2020 • MST / PROSPECTAR • MDIC / BTFP • NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos • CGEE activities…

31. Brazil: PROSPECTAR Programme • Main actors • MST, National Council of S&T (CCT) + Anchor Institutions, CNPq, Fund for National Studies & Research (FINEP) & a team from the Centre of Advanced Studies and Systems of Recife (CESAR) • Main objectives • To examine macro-issues related to STI with a focus on technological trends and inform key stakeholders about the future impacts of trends • Main methods • Brainstorming & prioritisation • Delphi • Main areas • Agriculture; Health; Energy; Telecommunications and IT; Materials; Hydro resources; Aeronautics; and Space • Main remarks • The massive mobilisation of the scientific community (>10k people) • The programme raised awareness of the challenges Brazil was facing as a federation & raised the importance of Foresight in the scientific community

32. Brazil: The BTFP Programme • Main actors • Secretary of Industrial Technology (STI) at the Ministry of Industry, Development and Commerce (MIDC) • UNIDO, EMBRAPA + Anchor institutions • Main objective • To contribute to development of the productive sector • Main methods • Foresight techniques applied to productive chain methodology • modelling; segmentation; performance indicators; critical factors; future events; Delphi survey + scenarios & cross-impacts (optional) • Main areas • Civil construction; Textiles & clothing; Plastics; and Wood & furniture • Main remarks • The methodological approach proved to be useful to understand the complexity of long-term planning on issues concerning a large variety of market segments and stakeholders (from raw material producers to final consumers)

33. EU Brazil: NAE activities • Main actor • Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE) of the Presidency of the Republic • Main objective • to define national objectives based on a large-scale dialog between different stakeholders of society • Main methods • Trends & issues. 600 experts looking for Megatrends in 7 dimensions: Institutional; Economic; Socio-cultural; Territorial; Knowledge; Environment; and Global • From 50 strategic themes to strategic goals & objectives • Strategic Focus (cross-impact + Delphi + Scenarios) • Main projects • Improving the quality of basic and primary education • Main remarks • Results are still being processed but the response rate has been very satisfactory (around 38,000 participants)

34. EU Brazil: CGEE activities • Main actors • CGEE + sponsors + other relevant stakeholders • Main objective • To support and execute foresight activities in Brazil • To raise awareness of about the future of key sectors • Main methods • Brainstorming surveys • Workshops • Delphi • Main projects • Energy, Biofuel, Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, Climate Change, and Water Resources, among others • Main remarks • Companion-system • Innovation portal • Delphi system

35. EU Foresight in Colombia • Main actors • Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA • UNIVALLE, Externado • CAF, CAB, UNIDO (incubation) • Main objectives • Building capabilities & foresight culture • Fund and execute exercises • Main methods • Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact • Scenarios & recommendations • Main activities • Electric Sector • Food Packaging Sector • Lacteous Sector • Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley • Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander • Making Cartagena a tourist destiny • Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains • Among others…

36. EU Colombian Foresight Programme (1st Cycle)

37. EU Colombian Foresight Programme (2nd Cycle)

38. EU Latin Foresight Panorama (Experiences and Cooperation) * State of evolution:position of foresight/future activities in the country along a spectrum from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I] + Level:national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac] # Focus:foresight [F/s], policy action [P] ~ Objectives:anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P] Countries with 1 or more foresight projects with Europe

39. With whom? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

40. Monitoring Foresight Cooperation

41. Core Elementsof Foresight Cooperation Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Knowledge Transfer Advice / Support Process Design Methodology support Process Management Training / Capacities Basic Intermediate Advanced Post-graduate Sustainable Partnership Joint Research LA funded EU funded EU-LA funded Shared Platforms Knowledge base Infrastructures Instruments

42. Core Elementsof Foresight Cooperation Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Advice and Support • For example, in Colombia: • Public sector • Colciencias, SENA, DNP, Ministries, etc. • Private sector • Chambers of Commerce • Public enterprises • Academic sector • UNIVALLE, National University, etc.

43. Core Elementsof Foresight Cooperation Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Training / Capacities • Capacities building activities • On demand • National Foresight Programmes, Research Centres, Etc. • Mobility Programmes • Successful one-off experience • SELF-RULE • Post-graduate programmes • Under construction

44. Core Elementsof Foresight Cooperation Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Research • Joint research projects • Methodological standards (CO-UK) • Mapping/monitoring foresight • SELF-RULE and EFMN (EU-LA) • Evaluation of foresight experiences • Colombian Foresight Evaluation (CO-UK)

45. Core Elementsof Foresight Cooperation Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Shared Platforms • Knowledge base • Publications • Books • Chapters • Papers • Reports • Case studies / data bank • Case studies repository ???

46. So, what? Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

47. Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls…) Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their implications • Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles - SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M (support action) • Activity 8.4. Europe in the world • Area 8.4.1. Interactions and interdependences between world regions and their implications - SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action)

48. Cooperation Opportunities(FP7 Calls…) Manchester Institute of Innovation Research • Activity 8.7. Foresight activities • Area 8.7.5. Mutual learning and co-operation - SSH-2009-7.5.1 - Consolidating the information system for foresight– EUR 720.000 Euros Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions) At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are established in the same MS or AC. Coordination and support actions (support actions) At least 1 legal entity

49. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rafael Popper Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk Gracias!