Welcome To The 31 th HPC User Forum Meeting October 16, 2008

1. Welcome To The 31thHPC User ForumMeetingOctober 16, 2008

2. Special Thanks To:Imperial College LondonSimon BurbidgeSue Pritchett

3. Thank You To Our Sponsors:AltairFujitsuHPIBMPanasas

4. Steve Finn And Steve ConwayHPC User Forum Update

5. Introduction: HPC User Forum Mission • Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing, technical and business problems • A forum for exchanging information, identifying areas of common interest, and developing unified positions on requirements • Provide members with a continual supply of information on: • Uses of high end computers, high end best practices, market dynamics, computer systems and tools, vendor activities and strategies • Provide members with a channel to present their achievements and requirements to outside interested parties

6. Introduction: HPC User Forum Mission • European Meeting Goal: • Maintain a dialogue between US and European HPC users/buyers • Recognizing that European market dynamics are not identical to U.S. market dynamics • And that dynamics in Europe vary from country to country and region to region

7. Introduction: HPC User Forum Steering Committee • Paul Buerger • Ohio • Supercomputer Center • Steve Conway • IDC Research • Vice President • Jack Collins • National Cancer Institute • James Kasdorf • Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center • Doug Kothe • Oak Ridge National Laboratory • Paul Muzio • City University of New York • Michael Resch • HRLS, University of Stuttgart • Vince Scarafino • Industry Expert • Suresh Shukla • The Boeing Company • Robert Singleterry • NASA/Langley • Allan Snavely • San Diego • Supercomputer Center • Steve Finn • BAE Systems • Chairman • Sharan Kalwani • General Motors Corporation • Vice Chairman • Earl Joseph • IDC, Executive Director • Vijay Agarwala • Penn State University • Alex Akkerman • Ford Motor Company • Doug Ball • The Boeing Company

8. Important Dates For Your Calendar • HPC User Forum Meetings: • October 13 and 14, 2008 • HLRS/University of Stuttgart • October 16, 2008 • Imperial College London • April 20 to 22, 2009 • The Hotel Roanoke & Conference Center, Roanoke, VA • September 8 to 10, 2009 • Omni Interlocken Resort, Broomfield, CO • SC08 in Austin, Texas, November 15 to 21, 2008 • ISC08, Hamburg, June 23 to 26, 2009

9. IDC HPCMarket Update

10. Earl Joseph IDC HPC research studies, HPC User Forum, and strategic consulting Steve Conway HPC User Forum, consulting, primary user research and events Richard Walsh In-depth technical analysis, special studies, processor trends, and data center issues Jie Wu HPC research specialist, census and forecasts, China research, interconnects and grids Lloyd Cohen Director Worldwide Market Analysis, data analysis, workstations Beth Throckmorton Government account support, special projects Charlie Hayes Government HPC issues, DOE, and special studies Mary Rolph Conference planning and logistics IDC’s HPC Team ©2007 IDC 10

11. Top Trends in HPC HPC continues to show strong growth 10% this Q • 19% yearly growth over the last 4 years • We are forecasting 9.2% growth for the next 5 years • Blades are making inroads into all segments Major challenges for datacenters: • Power, cooling, real estate, system management • Storage and data management continue to grow in importance Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users • Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems

12. Why Has Technical Computing Grown So Quickly? • Price and price/peak performance of clusters has redefined the cost of technical computing • >6x better than RISC, >70x better than vectors • At the same time, “live” science and “live” engineering costs have escalated • Plus time-to-solution is months faster with simulations • Global competitiveness is driving R&D and better product designs • At the same time, x86 performance on technical applications is weak • Driving buyers to purchase a much larger number of processors • New materials and approaches require rewriting the “books and tables” which takes years – making simulations a faster solution

13. HPC Servers $10B Workgroup (under $100K) $2.4B Supercomputers (Over $500K) $2.7B Divisional ($250K - $500K) $1.6B Departmental ($250K - $100K) $3.4B 2007 HPC Market Size By Competitive Segments

14. Vendor HPC Market Shares In 2Q08:All HPC Segments

15. Total HPC Revenue by Processor Type

16. Why Is Commodity Hot? .. Price! HPC All Servers Processor Summary, 2007

17. HPC Cluster Update

18. HPC Cluster Revenue Growth Rates Growth Has Averaged Over 74%/yr Since 2002

19. 90% Cluster 80% Non-Cluster 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q103 Q203 Q403 Q104 Q204 Q105 Q305 Q106 Q306 Q107 Q407 Q303 Q304 Q404 Q205 Q405 Q206 Q406 Q207 Q307 Growth In HPC Clusters

20. Cluster Revenue Share by Processor

21. HPC Cluster Processor Shipments • HPC cluster processors are now shipping at a rate of over 2.8 million a year • Average yearly growth has been 44%

22. HPC MarketForecasts

23. HPC Forecast: Strong Growth Over Next Five Years ($ Millions) Source: IDC, 2008

24. HPC Application Forecast, 2007 - 2012

25. Summary Thoughts

26. Major Customer Pain Points Clusters are still hard to use and manage • System management & growing cluster complexity • Power, cooling and floor space are major issues • Third party software costs • Weak interconnect performance at all levels • Applications & programming — Hard to scale beyond a node • RAS is a growing issue • Storage and data management are becoming new bottle necks • Lack of support for heterogeneous environment and accelerators

27. Major Customer Pain Points Software is becoming the #1 roadblock • Better management software is needed • HPC clusters are hard to setup and operate • New buyers – require “ease-of-everything” • Parallel software is lacking for most users • Many applications will need a major redesign • Multi-core will cause many issues to “hit-the-wall”

28. Software – ISV Scaling Limitations TABLE 20 Typical Number of Processors the ISV Applications Use for Single Jobs CPU Range Number of Applications Percent 1 19 24.4% 2 - 8 25 32.1% 9 - 32 20 25.6% 33 - 128 9 11.5% 129 - 1024 4 5.1% Unlimited 1 1.3% Total: 78 100.0%

29. New Challenges Affecting IT Datacenters • The increase in CPUs and server units is creating significant IT challenges in: • Managing complexity • How to best manage a complex cluster • How to install/setup a new cluster without having to buy a large number of separate pieces • Power/cooling and Space • Application scaling and hardware utilization • How to deliver strong performance to users on YOUR applications • How to make optimal use of new processor and system designs

30. Questions? Please email: hpc@idc.com Or check out: www.hpcuserforum.com

31. Agenda: Thursday Morning • 9:00 Imperial College Welcome • 9:15 HPC User Forum Welcome/Introductions, Steve Finn and Steve Conway • 9:30 Jamil Appa, BAE Systems, HPC in Aerospace • 10:00 Doug Ball, Boeing, HPC Trends in Aerospace • 10:30 IBM Technology Update • 10:45 Isabella Weger, ECMWF, HPC and Weather Prediction • 11:15 Break • 11:30 Gerard Gorman, Imperial College, Software Engineering & Support • 12:00 Dr. Frank Baetke, HP, HP's Scalable Computing Strategy • 12:15 Lunch

32. Lunch Logistics

33. WelcomeTo The 31thHPC User ForumMeeting

34. Agenda: Thursday Afternoon • 13:15 Panasas Technology Update • 13:30 Terry Hewitt, EDS, Automotive Work for Rolls-Royce • 14:00 Fujitsu R&D Technology Update, Motoi Okuda • 14:30 Andrew Jones, NAG, HPC Trends and Issues • 14:45 Peter Haynes, Imperial College, Materials and Physics • 15:15 Vince Scarafino, HPC User Forum HPC Technology Panel Results • 15:45 Irene Qualters, SGI, Industrial Strength Linux • 16:15 Break • 16:30 Mark Parsons, EPCC Site Update and HECToR Program • 17:00 Bill Butcher, Altair Engineering, Update • 17:15 HPC trends at NASA, Robert Singleterry • 17:45 Wrap up and plans for future HPC User Forum meetings, Steve Conway and Steve Finn • 18:00 Guided Tour of Imperial College

35. Important Dates For Your Calendar • HPC User Forum Meetings: • October 13 and 14 • In Stuttgart, Germany • October 16 • At the Imperial College, London • April 20 to 22, 2009 • The Hotel Roanoke & Conference Center, Roanoke, VA • September 8 to 10, 2009 • Omni Interlocken Resort, Broomfield, CO • Supercomputing08 in Austin, Texas, November 17 to 21, 2007 • ISC08, Hamburg, June 23 to 26, 2009

36. Thank YouFor Attending The 31thHPC User ForumMeeting

37. Questions? Please email: hpc@idc.com Or check out: www.hpcuserforum.com