Unit III: Approaches to Conflict Analysis

1. Unit III: Approaches to Conflict Analysis A. Conflict Dynamics Approach

2. Conflict Analysis • Conflict Analysis is a tool to find out the root cause of the conflict. • According to International Alert, Conflict Analysis is identification and comparison of positions, values, aims, issues, interests, and needs of conflict parties. • Conflict analysis and Conflict Mapping may seems close but they are both different terms as Conflict Analysis finds out the root cause of the conflict where as Conflict Mapping seeks to explains a particular conflict such as who are the parties involved, locations, relationship between various actors etc.

3. Conflict Analysis • During Cold War, Conflict Analysis as developed largely to handle understanding of East – West Conflict. • It used tools such as system analysis and Game Theory to understand the cause of the Cold War. • The threat of the Nuclear Confrontation and the Global Reach of the Cold War made it urgent to understand the dynamics of the conflict. • The focus at that time was on finding out the root cause of the escalation and polarization during the Cold War, and how to manage and contain the violence built in such processes.

4. Conflict Analysis • The key question to peace researchers at that time was ‘How it was possible that three major powers (USA, Britain & USSR), which was united in the World Wars, later found themselves in a mortal conflagration. • Similarly it took relatively short time for integration of the two former enemies Germany & France. • Similarly, the world slowly observing intense internal strives in developing south. • This it was necessary to develop a conflict analysis models as well as integration models in order to address these conflicts.

5. Conflict Analysis • Various scholars worked into developing a model of Conflict Analysis which are as follows: • Conflict Dynamics Model • Need Based forms of Analysis • Rational, Strategic Calculation • Triple R – Triple M Model

6. Conflict Dynamics Model • A classical understanding of conflict sees conflict as a dynamic phenomenon: one actor is reacting to what other actor is doing, which leads to further actions. • In popular understanding, ‘it takes two to conflict’. • There are also other dynamics pushing the actors in conflicts into two camps (polarization), creating commanding leadership (centralization), and forming institutions with particular responsibilities & little insights (secrecy & protection). • The conflict takes life of its own, engulfing the actors and, seemingly irresistibly , pushing them into an ever increasing conflict.

7. Conflict Dynamics Model • The dynamics of the conflict removes all other possible actions and makes the conflicting parties blind to an extent that they see no other alternatives but to continue to react at increasing levels of threats and violence. • One of the conflict dynamics tool was Game Theory which is a way of illustrating how parties act within a confined set up by the game itself. • If the parties follows the rules, the outcomes are predictable, but it also raises the probability that actors can change the dynamics by making particular moves or even breaking some of the ‘rules’ that the conflict has generated. • Such an analysis was developed in 1960s, for the polarized East-West Conflict, suggesting credible de-escalating steps that could lead to positive responses. – The idea was if one actor begins to act, other(s) may follow and thus dynamics changes directions.

8. Conflict Dynamics Model • Johan Galtung introduces a slightly complicated version of Dynamic Model in 1960s – provides a helpful analytical tool. • It suggest that a conflict moves among the triangle’s three corner, where A refers to conflict attitude, B refers to behavior and C the conflict or contradiction itself. • A conflict sequence can begin from any of these corners. • Later in most of the Galtungs writings, he gives emphasis to C as more frequent starting point of the conflict.

9. Conflict Dynamics Model Content/Contradiction Attitude Behaviour

10. A ATTITUDE (hatred) B BEHAVIOR (violence) C CONTRADICTION (issue) CONFLICT Conflict Dynamics Model A conflict is a complex entity

11. Conflict Dynamics Model Attitudes • Cognitive – ascribing negative characteristics to others • Emotive – hate, anger, contempt, envy, self-aggrandizement • Preparatory – for later provocations, discrimination, threats, special laws, invasion, mass media propaganda etc.

12. Conflict Dynamics Model Behaviors – Conflict behavior is intended to deprive somebody else something of value – life property, identity, access, rights, welfare, dignity, security, prestige, status, freedom, resources etc. It is exertion of power based on: • Remuneration – positively: aid, rights, influence, payments negatively: boycott, strike, non-cooperation • Normativity – positively: appreciation, agreement, recognition, praise negatively: social exclusion, criticism, slander • Violence – positively: non-violence negatively: war, imprisonment, rights violation, harming, threatening, expelling.

13. Conflict Dynamics Model Conflict/Contradiction • Value Conflict – disagreement about what is of value • Rank Conflict – agreement that something is value but disagreement about how to distribute it. e.g. ? • Goal Conflict – the parties are subjectively defining it and conscious about having incompatible goals • Interest Conflict – objectively present but not necessarily conscious to parties? • Complexity – depends upon number of actors, issues & how deeply it touches to the life of the actors.

14. Conflict Dynamics Model Prognosis(forecast) of Conflict • Galtung’s view is that conflict can be transformed with this diagnosis model as dynamics of the conflict can be affected or steered in ways that makes conflict creative. • He views that conflict can be transformed by way of ‘transcendence’ (where the goals of both parties are fully met), ‘compromise’ (goals are met less than fully for the sides and ‘withdrawal’ (goals are given up) by means of dialogue. • Thus dynamic approach to conflict analysis points out to significance of establishing a dialogue between the parties through confidence building measures in all sectors which can be instrumental in changing the dynamics of the conflict.

15. Conflict Dynamics Model A D – A wins, B Wins A win B Loss C -Compromise O - Withdrawal B B win, A loss

16. Thank You!!!