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Hellenic Forum Athens 6 March 2007

Hellenic Forum Athens 6 March 2007. Peter M. Swift. Hellenic Forum FLEET DEVELOPMENT. Peter M. Swift. Tanker fleet development. m dwt. No. Assumptions for period until 2009:

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Hellenic Forum Athens 6 March 2007

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  1. Hellenic ForumAthens6 March 2007 Peter M. Swift

  2. Hellenic ForumFLEET DEVELOPMENT Peter M. Swift

  3. Tanker fleet development m dwt No Assumptions for period until 2009: Scheduled phase out for the period: 15.5 m dwt including 4.2 m dwt that should already have been phased out earlier than 2007 Assumed removals 2007 – 2009: 29 m dwt (including conversion + other demolition)

  4. Record ordering - despite high prices (mdwt) 80 70 1993 and earlier sizes except 60 Handy VLCCs were defined differently Chem/Spec) 50 Panamaxes 40 Aframaxes 30 Suezmaxes VLCCs 20 10 0 1998 1990 2006 2000 2001 1988 1989 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2002 2003 2004 1993 2005

  5. Demolition: slowed in recent years(mdwt) 30 Others/NK Bangladesh 25 Pakistan India 20 Taiwan 15 Korea China 10 5 0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

  6. Average age steadily reducing (tankers above 10,000 dwt) 16 14 12 10 8 6 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Years

  7. Double-hull percentage rising steadily 100 15 18 21 24 27 32 33 % dwt share* : 80 41 49 SH/DB/DS 78 60 94 DH 85 82 40 79 76 * Assumes 73 68 67 phase out 59 51 according to 20 regulations 22 (rounded 6 upwards, 25 0 years after 2010 1991 1997 End 06 End 10 End 03 End 04 End 05 End 07 End 08 End 09 End 02 . %

  8. (Single Hull) Tanker Phase Out- an “uncertainty” post 2010 70 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH 60 until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 50 OPA90 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 m dwt Assumptions : MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015

  9. Market development - One scenario

  10. Chemical Carrier Fleet • 70% of fleet double hull, almost all of remainder double bottom or double side – average age 11.5 years, • Large order book (37% of existing fleet by dwt), • Significant changes to MARPOL Annex II from Jan 2007, principally in carriage of veg oils – several uncertainties.

  11. Chemical tanker fleet by hull number

  12. Chemical tanker fleet and age distribution 14 12 Age 10 years : 18+ 3,000 - 17,000 dwt: 32% orderbook 8 15-27 20-24 6 15-19 4 0-14 Source: 2 Inge Steensland 55% 37% 38% 18% 0 Shipbrokers Existing On order Existing On order Existing On order Existing On order 3-10,000 dwt 10-17,000 dwt 17--30,000 dwt 30,000 dwt + m dwt

  13. Reclassification of Annex II products

  14. Major exporters of vegetable oils m ts

  15. Further information available at www.intertanko.com The Revisions to MARPOL Annex II (entry into force 1/1/2007) A Practical Guide November 2006

  16. Changes in the pipeline Chemical Carriers: • Proposals from the Inter-industry Group to amend SOLAS to provide for the application of inert gas to new oil tankers of less than 20,000 DWT and to new chemical tankers.

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