The ShakeOut Scenario What will a big San Andreas earthquake really be like?

1. November 12–16, 2008 The ShakeOut Scenario What will a big San Andreas earthquake really be like? Ken Hudnut & Team ShakeOut

2. USGS Multi-Hazard Demo Project • Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist • Dale Cox, Project Manager • Suzanne Perry, Staff Scientist • Earthquake Scenario Coordinators: • Dan Ponti, Anne Wein, Rich Bernknopf, and Ken Hudnut (all at USGS), Mike Reichle and Jerry Treiman (CGS), Keith Porter and Dennis Mileti (Univ. of Colorado), Jim Goltz (OES), Hope Seligson (MMI Eng.), and Kim Shoaf (UCLA) • ShakeOut Earthquake Contributors - Source Description, Surface Faulting and Ground Motions: • Brad Aagaard and Ned Field (USGS), Rob Graves* (URS), Lisa Star and Jonathan Stewart (UCLA), Thomas Jordan,* Gideon Juve,* Philip Maechling,* David Okaya,* Scott Callaghan* (USC), Jacobo Bielak,* Ricardo Taborda,* Leonardo Ramirez-Guzman,* Julio Lopez,* and David O'Hallaron* (CMU) and John Urbanic* (PSC), Geoff Ely* (SDSU/UCSD), Kim Olsen,* Luis Dalguer* and Steve Day* (SDSU), Yifeng Cui,* Jing Zhu,* Timothy Kaiser,* Amit Chourasia,* and Reagan Moore* (SDSC), Chen Ji (UCSB), Swami Krishnan, Matt Muto and Jeroen Tromp (Caltech) * participant in the SCEC/CME collaboration, funded by the National Science Foundation

3. San Andreas M 7.8 Shaking

4. Fault Offset Landers, California M 7.3 - 1992 earthquake; ~1 meter (3 feet) offset

5. Big Fault Offset! Wairarapa fault, New Zealand - 1855 earthquake; ~18 meter (54 feet) right-lateral offset

6. Northridge 1994 over in 30 sec’s ShakeOut rupture unzips SE to NW, taking 90 seconds; Shaking lasts >3 min.’s in LA & Ventura

7. Emergency Response With 13 million people at high shaking, mutual aid must come from far away when the transportation routes are damaged

8. Economic impact ~$50 billion in shaking damages ~$65 billion fire damages ~$100 billion business losses Bottom line: $213 billion

9. Mitigation works! Retrofitted freeways, structures, utilities reduced the losses

10. Shakeout scenario: fire following earthquake 2 largest peacetime conflagrations: 1906 San Francisco, 1923 Tokyo. Why? Numerous simultaneous ignitions Degraded fire-resistive building features Reduced pressure in water mains Saturated communications When ignitions:response capabilities pass a tipping point, get conflagrations Special study by C Scawthorn, SPA Risk Created procedures currently used by insurance industry Review panel: Donald Manning, retired chief, LAFD Donald Parker, California Seismic Safety Gerry Malais, LAFD Michael Reichle, California Geological Survey Larry Collins, LAFD USAR Task Force 103

11. Shakeout Scenario: fire following earthquake SPA Risk study: No Santa Ana winds, not worst case 1,600 ignitions occur requiring response of a fire engine 1,200 exceed capability of 1st responding engine, become large fires (several city blocks) in Riverside, San Bernardino, LA, & Orange Counties Conflagrations of 10s of blocks in each of 4 counties Orange County & Los Angeles basin: dozens of fires, each 10s of city blocks, merge into conflagrations destroying 100s of blocks 200M sf of buildings burn ≈ 133,000 single family dwellings Economic loss: ~$70B Expert panel review findings: Manning: “1200-1600 ignitions is reasonable… a higher number is possible” Parker: “A good practical number” Malais: “Great report.” Don’t dispute number of ignitions. Reichle: “No problem with study at all.”

12. ShakeOut scenario: highrise steelframe buildings Issue Many welded steel moment frame connections fractured in 1994 Northridge earthquake In Kobe, 10s of SMRFs collapsed, though different from LA design & construction No US buildings have collapsed, but ShakeOut is longer, stronger, and richer in long-period motion than Northridge. 600-800 8+ story WSMFs in study area Special study Caltech performed finite element analyses of model pre- and post-Northridge WSMFs Expert panel from SAC Steel Project reviewed Ron Hamburger, SGH Greg Deierlein, Stanford University Jim Malley, Degenkolb Engineers SAC steel: FEMA-funded joint venture of Structural Engineers Association of California, Applied Technology Council, and Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering. Produced FEMA 350-series reports.

13. ShakeOut scenario: highrise steelframe buildings Caltech extrapolated from a few model buildings: suggests 8 collapses Expert panel: “The fact that there were no collapses in previous US earthquakes cannot be taken as evidence that there would not be collapses in this scenario. In fact, the possibility of some collapses is quite credible.” Mini study: 1+ collapse If multiple collapses, 75% - 100% of highrise (10+ story) collapses would be pancake-style, not partial Scenario: 5 collapses (11-15 stories, 200,000 – 300,000 sf, up to 1,000 occupants each), 10 red tags, 20 yellow tags SMRF: special moment-resisting frame

14. Shakeout: nonductile reinforced concrete Issue: ductile detailing can lead to collapse RC construction has improved since 1971 San Fernando, but older buildings still remain 60+ pre-1976 highrise concrete buildings 1000s of mid- and lowrise buildings of this type UCLA NEES Grand Challenge team: Where, how many such buildings? Estimate red tags & collapses 1971 San Fernando

15. Shakeout: nonductile reinforced concrete UCLA study: ~1,000 such buildings in LA county Mostly lowrise, avg 50,000 sf ea Finite element analyses of model NDRCMF extrapolated to population: 10-100 collapse 2x as many red-tagged 90% of collapses are partial, unlike highrise steel-frame Scenario: 50 collapses (10x as many as steel); 5,000 – 10,000 occupants 100 red tagged buildings 1994 Northridge 1995 Kobe

16. Shakeout scenario: electric power Expert panel • 10 experts from LADWP, Southern California Edison, MWD, City of Riverside, Cal ISO Panel findings Immediate loss of power throughout region Collapse of some high-tension towers, damage to transformers on overhead poles, Generating plants taken offline for inspection LA, Riverside, & San Bernardino Counties: 30-50% of service restored in 24 hrs 75-90% restored in 3 days ~100% restored within 1-4 months Ventura, Orange, & Imperial Counties: 75% restored in 12-24 hr, 90% in 2 days Kern & San Diego Counties: 90% restored in 24 hr PGA, rupture, transmission lines, & electric power plants

17. ShakeOut scenario: water supply Issues: Aqueducts cross fault several places: California Aqueduct (2x), LA Aqueduct (1x), Coachella Canal (3x), & Colorado River Aqueduct Aqueducts and tunnels also sensitive to landslide, liquefaction far from fault Shaking, liquefaction, & landslide, damage pipes, esp. older cast iron… Groundwater supply needs power, pumps, tanks, and other treatment equipment often damaged in earthquakes San Francisco Marina District, 1989

18. ShakeOut scenario: water supply Expert panel: 19 reps from 8 agencies MWD, LADWP, San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District, Dept Water Resources, East Valley Water, USGS CA Water Science Center, Long Beach Water Department, Water Replenishment District of SoCal (of perhaps 50-100 systems) Panel findings Within 10 miles of fault & isolated areas: damage impairs supply for up to 6 months Everywhere with MMI VIII+, 1/2 of customers lose service for up to 1 week because of loss of power, damage to pumps, tanks, etc. In Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino Counties, 5% of customers lose service for 1-8 weeks

19. ShakeOut scenario: dams Issues Main rupture goes through Palmdale Reservoir Strong shaking at older earth dams could lead to damage Damage could cause evacuation Panel 10 experts from DWR, MWD, LA County Public Works, LADPW, USGS CA Water Science Center Scenario Flooding occurs near Palmdale Reservoir Damage causing concern is serious enough to evacuate homes in several places. ~50 dams experience MMI VIII+ ~25 of these would be of concern ~3 dams in MMI VIII+ are nearly full, have transverse cracking at crest, muddy water emerging at toe, warranting evacuation There are evacuation procedures, but what actually happens may be more chaotic MMI, rupture, & dams

20. ShakeOut scenario - rail Issues BNSF, UP, Metrolink cross rupture >20 places 100 BNSF trains/day cross Cajon Pass Trains have derailed in earthquakes In 2004, ~8% of (non-earthquake) derailments resulted in hazmat release (fuel from locomotives, liquids from cars) Trains carry large fraction of transshipments from Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Special study (Bill Byers, ret BNSF) 5 BNSF & UP trains within PGA > 0.5g Reasonable to expect up to 3 derailments Minor hazmat release occurs, require cleanup but not evacuation Service restored within 2 weeks, though afterslip and large landslides are issues Damage to rail bridges is possible, e.g., prestressed concrete on steel piers at Cajon Creek; damage likely restored for at least 1 line within 1 week Rail and PGA

21. ShakeOut scenario damage conclusions HAZUS analysis produces macroscopic damage and loss estimates To supplement or replace some HAZUS estimates, special-focus studies occurred for several building types, lifelines, and fire following earthquake Steel frame, fire following, & all lifelines: study replaces HAZUS Nonductile concrete, URM: study agrees with HAZUS Woodframe: study contributed to HAZUS analysis This presentation has summarized only a few of these HAZUS, REDARS 2, and structural analyses informed but did not dictate scenario results, which are based on detailed analysis, experience, & consensus Realistic damage was depicted by research teams and panels of current & former lifeline utility engineers and executives, engineering scholars, structural design practitioners, construction contractors Damage depictions are founded on past earthquake and laboratory experience & study, but mindful of how the scenario event differs from past events & studies Significant effort was spent to identify mitigation measures—how to make the scenario impacts less than they otherwise could be

22. Uncertainties = reduced use Stability of ground motion predictions Engineers believing the ground motions Ways to quantify utility outages Exposure database is non-existent Ways to quantify mortality

23. The Great Southern California ShakeOut • November 12-16, 2008 • A week of special events that will inspire southern Californians to get ready for big earthquakes • Features a region-wide earthquake drill on Nov. 13 • millions of participants: schools, families, community groups, business, etc. • Los Angeles International Earthquake Conference • Public Rally/Festival in downtown Los Angeles • More at www.ShakeOut.org

24. ShakeOut Schedule