ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4: THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION

1. ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4:THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDSAND MIGRATION Lead partner and coordinator: Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden Partners: Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon University of Vienna, Institute for Geography and Regional Research, Vienna IGEAT, ULB, Bruxelles University G.d'Annunzio, Department of Economy and History of the Territory, Pescara NIBR, Oslo VÁTI, Budapest

2. Matrix for policy implications and policy recommendations Policentricicity – both means and objective

3. Policy recommendation 1: Stimulate natural population increase and TFR Points of departure: • Difficult through policy recommendations stimulate natural population development • Natural population development – cohort phenomenon • Natural population development – often a result of the age and gender structure Recommendations: • A common (European) social and family policy and a more active labour market policy that stimulates higher fertility • Better female labour market conditions stimulate childbearing • Out-migration regions – more attractive • Better child care – public or private (the three generation family is gone, defamilisation is a fact)

4. TFR 1999 to the left (more disaggregated in appendix A) Natural growth potential 2020 to the right

5. Policy recommendation 2: Hamper future asymmetrical east-west migration and stimulate symmetrical migratory flows Implications: • Increased east-west migration erodes territorial cohesion. • Out-migration of qualified people have negative consequences on spatial development and competitiveness Recommendations at meso and macro levels: • Stimulate symmetrical migratory flows • Close the gap in living conditions (in a wider sense) between regions and nations – symmetrical migratory flows • Stimulate structural transformation of the economy among the new EU-members – risks in short run but necessary in the long • Stimulate regional enlargement (even across borders) – larger local labour markets, decreased mismatch • Better accessibility • Don’t hamper migration in general – migration and mobility are lubricants for economic development!

6. International migratory balance (left) and immigrations rates (right)

7. Policy recommendation 3: About depopulation Implications: • depopulation - a risk for many regions both in short and long term • depopulation erodes territorial and social cohesion as well as competitiveness and sustainability Recommendations: • Multifunctional perspective on the agricultural sector in combination with better accessibly and services (micro/meso/macro) • Stimulate local and regional services to hamper out-migration (micro) • Sustainable use of resources and avoidance of environmental/ecological pressure in densely populated regions can be hampered by a successful policy to hamper out-migration from depopulation areas (micro/meso) • Stimulate growth poles in the depopulation areas (micro/meso)

8. Population change (left) and relative/structural depopulation (right)

9. Policy recommendation 4: Replacement migration Point of departure: Immigration is necessary in various degrees to hamper the decrease in population and labour force in EU29. Recommendations: • Sustainable development will not be achieved if immigrants are free to settle down wherever they want in EU29. • Immigration policies must promote immigration to peripheral areas that must be done more attractive. • Focus on immigrants with different skills and competence concerning various countries and regions in EU29. The need differ with regard to the economic and labour market structure. • Higher female labour force participation rates • Stimulate productivity development and structural transformation – substitute labour with capital and labour with labour

10. Replacement migration 2000-2050 (% of population)– model A (the worst case and unrealistic) Assumptions: Constant TFR No migration No productivity development

11. Gaps and further research Gaps: • Difficult to construct longer time series for EU29 at NUTS3 • Migratory movements: origin and/or destination both with EU29 and external migration • Data on international migration only on NUTS2 - impossible to distinguish intra29-migrant from and extraEU29-migrant on NUTS3 • Life expectancy data at regional levels • For many countries – elderly people are not disaggregated (only 70+) • The scale problem – more data on NUTS4/5 Further research: • Migratory gross flows and origin/destination on NUTS3 both with regard to internal and international migrations – necessary to analyse symmetrical migratory movements • Educational level of the migrants are in many cases missing • Age and gender structure at NUTS3 is “shaky” and for many countries nonexistent • The scale problem: NUTS2 and NUTS3 are in many cases too rough in order to analyse depopulation and the post-industrial migration and pattern. • The development from an industrial to a post-industrial migration and settlement pattern is a research field that will be increasingly important concerning spatial analyses