Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor

1. Climate Change, Disaster Risk and the Urban Poor February 16, 2012: | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Judy L. Baker Lead Economist, Urban Practice, World Bank Institute

2. Presentation • I. Background and Approach • II. Vulnerability of Cities • III. Vulnerability of the Urban Poor • IV. Building Resilience for the Urban Poor

3. I. Background • The Mayor’s Task Force launched in December ‘09 at Mayor’s Summit in Copenhagen during COP-15 • Objectives: • Better understand the links among climate change, disaster risk and the urban poor • Identify good practices for building resilience • Propose policy and investment programs for scaling up efforts to reduce risk for the urban poor • Task Force Members: Dar es Salaam, Jakarta, Mexico City and Sao Paulo

4. Approach • Global Study • Led by World Bank, brought together global experiences • City Level Case Studies • Risk assessments following three pillar approach “Urban Risk Assessment” to assess institutional, socioeconomic, and hazard impact • Teams included city officials, local experts, and World Bank • Compiled existing information • Field work included institutional mapping, interviews in low income areas

5. II. Vulnerability of Cities • Urbanization is defining this century • 70 million people move to cities each year • Pressure on cities to provide urban infrastructure, services and safe land • Cities are vulnerable to climate change and natural hazards • Often located in coastal areas, along rivers, seismic zones, and cyclone prone zones. • Changing climate results in more extreme weather events leading to flooding and coastal storms, sea-level rise, and higher temperatures

6. Vulnerability of Cities • Significant impacts on infrastructure, basic services, natural environment and residents • Built environment • Natural environment • Residents • Impacts of disasters are more devastating in cities due to high concentration of economic assets and people • Multiple efforts to rank exposure in cities; all show increasing risk

7. III. Vulnerability of the Urban Poor • Urban Poor are on the front line • Most affected by low intensity, high frequency events • Live on most undesirable lands which are more affordable • Steep hillsides, flood plains, coastal areas • Housing quality is very low • Basic services are limited • Poor drainage, solid waste collection, water and sanitation, roads – heavy rains turn into floods • Risk of water scarcity, contamination

10. Vulnerability of the Urban Poor • Risks linked to density • Disease can spread rapidly through slums • Layout and site conditions of slums can vary also affecting risk • High density, hazardous locations, and irregular layout of slums present highest risk • Less information, fewer safety nets for protection • Coping mechanisms rely on social networks, and adhoc adaptation • Can sometimes include risk of maladaptation

11. IV. Building Resilience for the Urban Poor • Cities are the drivers for addressing urban risk • Recommended actions require strong institutions for designing and implementing integrated policies • Key areas: • i. Understanding risk at the city and community level • ii. Integrating climate change and disaster risk reduction for the poor into urban planning • iii. Providing basic services in low income areas • iv. Bridging communities and local governments to work together • v. Opening new finance opportunities

12. i. Understanding risk • City and community level risk assessments are needed to inform decision making, action plans • Urban Risk Assessment Framework

13. Jakarta Slum Areas and Flooding

14. Understanding risk, lessons • Data, data, data • Critical for decision making • Mapping informal settlements • Increasingly done by residents themselves, with new technology • Key lessons from city cases: • Multidimensional approach is useful • High level support critical • Coordination across agencies is essential • Access to information was difficult • Action planning is a natural follow up to process involving multiple agencies

15. ii. Integrating risk reduction into urban planning and management • A growing list of cities provide good examples: e.g. Cape Town, Ho Chi Minh City, Quito, Jakarta • Balancing policy tradeoffs between risk reduction, urban development and poverty reduction is difficult making • Land use policies are most instrumental • Prevent building and settlements in high risk areas • Proactive sites and services projects reduce risk, but often in periphery • Efficient transport systems • Can increase land supply with access and mobility • Can result in urban sprawl

16. Integrating risk reduction into urban planning and management • Investing in slum upgrading and basic service provision reduces risk • Sometimes resettlement will be necessary • How to address uncertainty in planning? • Tools such as ‘robust decision making’ are being used. • Approach aims to minimize negative consequences for stakeholders and identify choices that are robust over many future scenarios

17. iii. Strengthening Institutional Capacity to Deliver Results • Cities are the drivers for addressing risk • Multiple agencies currently involved • Basic Service Provision, Climate Change, Disaster Management, Urban Planning and management, Poverty Reduction Programs • Institutional arrangements typically complex spanning municipal & administrative boundaries • Strengthening institutional capacity requires collaborative governance, involving multiple stakeholders • Approach may require new mechanism that is formalized such as inter-agency working group

18. Strengthening Institutional Capacity to Deliver Results • Good practices in service delivery, slum upgrading early warning systems, safety nets exist • Lessons: implemented with strong political commitment and leadership, good governance, good management including coordination across groups, community participation. • May require new incentives, structured reward system • Capacity Building Programs • WBI E-Institute • Knowledge Exchange activities • Peer learning • Research institutions

19. iv. Bridging communities and local governments to work together • Much is happening at the community level • Gap between local governments and poor often around informal settlements, much need in linking communities to network infrastructure • Numerous good examples exist • Facilitated through mutual recognition of roles • Understanding what is happening at the local level • Understanding what city’s constraints are • Strong local organizations and leaders are important

20. v. Opening new financing sources • Major financing needs for urban infrastructure and basic services, information systems, safety nets and capacity building • Estimating the cost of adaptation is challenging • Cost-Benefit has been used • Casablanca case: Early warning systems are very cost effective • Experiences with costs for slum improvements • Existing resources rely on national and local revenues, private sector, PPPs, loans and grants through development banks • Few climate change programs explicitly for cities, or for the poor

21. For more information www.worldbank.org/urban jbaker2@worldbank.org

22. Thank You! Judy BakerLead Economist, Urban Practice World Bank Institute The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433Tel: (202) 473-7243