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Towards the comparative analysis of the case studies: current and next steps

Carlo Giupponi 1,2 1 Università degli Studi di Milano 2 FEEM. Towards the comparative analysis of the case studies: current and next steps. SMART Workshop Tunis September 2004. WP10: Issues for the Grenoble meeting. How far we are from the work plan agreed in Tunis?

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Towards the comparative analysis of the case studies: current and next steps

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  1. Carlo Giupponi1,2 1Università degli Studi di Milano 2FEEM Towards the comparative analysis of the case studies: current and next steps SMART Workshop Tunis September 2004

  2. WP10: Issues for the Grenoble meeting • How far we are from the work plan agreed in Tunis? • How to finally meet the overall objectives of WP10? • How to disseminate results (D10.3)?

  3. WP10 objectives • To identify commonalities and differences and relate them to the specific regional setting; • To identify more generally applicable results that are invariant across the case studies; • To organize these finding in terms of a comparative policy assessment (existing and desirable, future ones) and best practice examples – contribution to sustainability.

  4. WP10: Tasks

  5. STEPS MEETING THE OBJECTIVES OF WP10 1) Definition of scenarios 3) Definition of sustainability indicators 2) Definition of responses CA on existing policies for each scenario 4) Model runs (4) on the 3 scenarios with current responses CA on proposed policies for each scenario 5) Model runs (12) on the 3 scenarios with possible future responses CA on proposed policies responses for each scenario 6) Sustainability analysis of the proposed responses Dissemination of results 7) Reassessment of results according to the DPSIR framework

  6. Where we are • In Tunis we have to agreed on: • - scenarios • responses • sustainability indicators • In Grenoble we should clarify what is left to be done to reach the final step of the comparative analysis: • - Scenario definition • Responses options • Sustainability indicators

  7. Scenarios Scenarios are defined by COMMON VARIABLES representing DRIVING FORCES and PRESSURES

  8. Responses WDM WSM WQM

  9. Sustainability indicators Sustainability indicators are defined by COMMON VARIABLES representing the expected STATE (changes)/IMPACTS (effects) of RESPONSES MDGs ? Water sanitation

  10. Model outputs and MC analysis 3 scenarios, 1 Current +3 Future Responses (WD, WS, WQ) 3x4 = 12 runs of models per each CS 16 sets of results of (7) sustainability indicators Analysis matrix with 7 rows (indicators/criteria) and 16 columns (response options/scenarios) Hence, for each CS:

  11. Future plans Can we confirme the above? • If yes: next steps may be: • Agree upon the methods for the final CA step (MCA, ES, MOA); • Involve partners in the pre-final step and identify needs for refinements (new runs?) • Involve partners in the final step (MCA GDM?) • If no: • Identify what is feasible and refine/adapt the proposed approach if needed

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