S. Shyam Sunder Acting Deputy Director Building and Fire Research Laboratory

1. National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Programand theNational Institute of Standards and Technology Briefing for the NSTC Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction June 2, 2005 S. Shyam Sunder Acting Deputy Director Building and Fire Research Laboratory

2. NIST enables the future... by strengthening the innovation infrastructure to: • advance manufacturing and services • facilitate trade • enhance public safety & security • improve quality of life …and create jobs ... through effective partnerships with industry, academia, and other government agencies.

3. NIST assets and mission 3,000 employees 1,700 associates 1,900 users of facilities 1,500 affiliated field agents $858 million FY 2005 budget NIST Laboratories Advanced Technology Program Manufacturing Extension Partnership Baldrige National Quality Program NIST mission “To develop and promote measurement, standards, and technology to enhance productivity, facilitate trade, and improve the quality of life.”

4. Bill Phillips 1997 Nobel Prize in Physics John Cahn 1998 National Medal of Science Greg Linteris 2 Space Shuttle missions Anneke Sengers 2003 L’Oréal-UNESCO Women in Science Award Debbie Jin 2003 MacArthur Fellowship Eric Cornell 2001 Nobel Prize in Physics NIST has... ...world-class staff

5. NIST’s Intramural Laboratories

6. The Construction Industry • Represents 13 percent of GDP, $1.3 trillion in total value of work done per year, and between 5 and 7 percent of the U.S. workforce or 10 million workers. • Vast majority of the more than 1 million firms participating in the construction market are small, without the resources to conduct research needed to enhance productivity, construction quality, and public safety. • Over 80 percent of the firms are very small, with less than 10 employees. • Less than 1,000 firms employ 500 or more persons. Fire is a major problem in the United States, which has one of the worst fire fatality rates (13.5 per million) of industrialized nations. Even with improvements in fire protection and safety, 3,600 lives were lost in 2002, 22,000 more were seriously injured, and direct property loss reached $10 billion. • The building and fire communities we serve are vital • to the U.S. economy and public safety

7. BFRL at a Glance BFRL Mission Meet the measurement and standards needs of the building and fire safety communities. BFRL Vision The source of critical tools - metrics, models, and knowledge - used to modernize the building and fire safety communities. Key Facts World-class staff including 155 full time staff (126 professional) $40 million annual budget (60% direct appropriation; 40% reimbursable) Unique facilities including: Integrating Sphere UV exposure chamber; Tri-directional test facility; 12 million pound testing machine; Solar tracker; Large scale fire test facility; Environmental chambers The Nation’s primary federal civilian laboratory dedicated to meeting the measurement and standards needs of the building and fire safety communities

8. Building and Fire Research Laboratory Goals Homeland Security Enhanced Building Performance High-Performance Construction Materials and Systems Fire Loss Reduction

9. BFRL Strategic Goals High Performance Construction Materials and Systems: to enable scientific and technology-based innovation to modernize and enhance the performance of construction materials and systems. Enhanced Building Performance: to provide the means to assure buildings work (better) throughout their useful lives by providing knowledge, measurements and tools to optimize building life cycle performance. Fire Loss Reduction: to enable engineered fire safety for people, products, and facilities; and enhance fire fighter effectiveness. Homeland Security: to develop and implement standards, technology, and practices needed for cost-effective improvements to the safety and security of buildings and building occupants, including evacuation, emergency response procedures, and threat mitigation. Our programs are identified, developed, carried out, the results implemented, and consequences measured in partnership with key customer organizations

10. Director J. E. Hill Acting Deputy Director S. Shyam Sunder Associate Director P. Domich Office of Applied Economics H.E. Marshall Materials and Construction Research Division J. St. Pierre Acting Chief Building Environment Division G.E. Kelly Chief Fire Research Division W. L. Grosshandler Chief • Fire Fighting Technology • Fire Metrology • Analysis & Prediction • Integrated Performance Assessment • Materials & Products • Structures • Construction Metrology and Automation • Polymeric Materials • Inorganic Materials • HVAC&R Equipment Performance Group • Mechanical Systems & Controls • Heat Transfer & Alternative Energy Systems • Computer-Integrated Building Processes • Indoor Air Quality & Ventilation BUILDING AND FIRE RESEARCH LABORATORY ORGANIZATION

11. BFRL Professional Staff Math Bac. Other 22% 23% Econ/OR MS 25% 25% Physics PhD 53% 52% Phy. Sci. Chemistry BFRL NIST Engineering

12. National Construction Safety Team Act PL 107-231 • Congress directs NIST to investigate building failures that have resulted in “substantial loss of life or that posed significant potential for substantial loss of life.” • NIST investigations are to assess building performance and emergency response and evacuation procedures. • Building failures include those caused by extreme natural events (earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, etc.), building or community-scale fires, failure during construction or in active use, act of terrorism, Presidential disaster declaration, activation of National Response Plan. • Modeled by Congress after the National Transportation Safety Board; provides NIST with similar authorities. • NIST is carrying out the World Trade Center investigation and the Rhode Island Nightclub Fire investigation under the authority of the Act. • NIST is required to establish and deploy an investigation team within 48 hours of building failures to the maximum extent possible.

13. Prior NIST Investigations… • Results: • Probable technical cause • Lessons learned: successes and failures • Improvements to standards, codes, and practices, technologies • Establish future research priorities • Earthquakes San Fernando, CA (1971) Mexico City, Mexico (1985) Loma Prieta, CA (1989) Northridge, CA (1994) Kobe, Japan (1995) Kocaeli, Turkey (1999) • Hurricanes Camille, MS/LA (1969) Alicia, Galveston, TX (1983) Hugo, SC (1989) Andrew, FL (1992) Hurricane Mitch and Georges, LAC (1998) • Construction/Building Skyline Plaza Apartments, Bailey’s Crossroads, VA (1973) Willow Island Cooling Tower, WV (1978) Kansas City Hyatt Regency, Kansas City, MO (1981) Riley Road Interchange, East Chicago, IN (1982) Harbor Cay Condominium, Cocoa Beach, FL (1981) L’Ambiance Plaza, Hartford, CT (1987) Ashland Oil Tank Collapse, Floreffe, PA (1988) U.S. Embassy, Moscow, USSR (1987) Murrah Federal Building, Oklahoma City, OK (1995) • Tornadoes Jarrell, TX (1997) Spencer, SD (1998) Oklahoma City, OK (1999) • Fires DuPont Plaza Hotel, San Juan, PR (1986) First Interstate Bank Building, Los Angeles, CA (1988) Loma Prieta Earthquake, CA (1989) Hillhaven Nursing Home (1989) Pulaski Building, Washington, D.C. (1990) Happyland Social Club, Bronx, NY (1990) Oakland Hills, CA (1991) Hokkaido, Japan (1993) Watts St, New York City (1994) Northridge Earthquake, CA (1994) Kobe, Japan (1995) Vandaila St, New York City (1998) Cherry Road, Washington, DC (1999) Keokuk, IA (1999) Houston, TX (2000) Phoenix, AZ (2001) • Existing Authorities: • NCST Act (2002): building failures, evacuation and emergency response procedures • NIST Act (1986): structural investigations • NEHRP Reauthorization Act (1990): earthquakes • National Post-Storm Data Acquisition Plan: wind, storms and floods • National Response Plan: structural and fire safety; disaster operations and situation assessment; urban and industrial hazard analysis; mitigation • Fire Prevention and Control Act (1974):fire investigations

14. North tower South tower WTC Investigation Some Questions: • How and why did WTC 1 stand nearly twice as long as WTC 2 before collapsing (102 min. vs. 56 min.) though they were hit by virtually identical aircraft? • What factors, if any, could have delayed or prevented collapse of the WTC towers? • What factors, if any, could have saved additional lives or minimized loss of life among the ranks of first responders? • Would the undamaged WTC towers have remained standing in a conventional large building fire? • How well did practices used in the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the WTC buildings conform to accepted national practices, standards, and codes? National Benefits: • Improvements in the way buildings are designed, constructed, operated, and used. • Improved tools, guidance for industry and safety officials. • Improved codes, standards, and public safety.

15. NEHRP: History and Overview • Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (P.L. 95-124) established NEHRP • NEHRP is the federal government’s coordinated long-term nationwide program to reduce the risks of life and property in the United States resulting from earthquakes. • NEHRP authorizes funding for four principal agencies: • Federal Emergency Management Agency • National Institute of Standards and Technology • National Science Foundation • United States Geological Survey • The NEHRP budget was about $115 million in FY 2004. • Congress reviews and reauthorizes NEHRP typically every 2 or 3 years.

16. Seismicity of the United States

17. Earthquake Ground Shaking Hazards

18. Earthquake Loss Estimates • Average financial loss associated with U.S. earthquakes is $10 billion per year for buildings, transportation networks, and other lifelines systems, and business disruption. • Potential loss estimates of a large earthquake in a major U.S. urban area now approach $200 billion. • Slow implementation of new mitigation technologies, combined with continued widespread development in areas of high seismic risk, has resulted in a rapid and steady increase in societal vulnerability to a major earthquake. • Ninety percent of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, and most tsunamis that have caused severe devastation have been earthquake generated. • An earthquake along the 680-mile undersea fault known as the Cascadia subduction zone off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and northern California could generate a tsunami similar to the northern coast of Sumatra and would give only 10-20 minute warning time to the residents in coastal communities along the Pacific Northwest.

19. NEHRP Reauthorization Act of 2004 • Congress completed thorough two-year review of NEHRP, resulting in enactment of P.L. 108-360, signed into law October 25, 2004. These include hearings held by the House Science Research Subcommittee and the Senate Space, Science, and Transportation Subcommittee. • Congress recognized that slow implementation of new mitigation technologies, combined with continued widespread development in areas of high seismic risk, has resulted in a rapid and steady increase in societal vulnerability to a major earthquake. Potential loss estimates of a large earthquake in a major U.S. urban area now approach $200 billion. • Congress reauthorized NEHRP for five years (FY 2005 to FY 2009) with an average authorized budget of $180 million per year, an increase of about $75 million per year.

20. NEHRP Authorized Budgets ($M) • Agency/Initiative FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2009 • FEMA 21.0 21.6 23.6 • NIST 10.0 11.0 14.6 • NSF 38.0 39.1 42.8 • NEES (O&M) 20.0 20.4 21.9 • USGS 77.0 84.4 88.9 • ANSS (not less than) (30.0) (36.0) (36.0) • NEHRP Total 166.0 176.5 191.8

21. NEHRP Strategic Priorities • Congress strongly endorsed the priorities identified in the 2001-2005 NEHRP Strategic Plan, developed in partnership with the broad stakeholder community from the private sector, state and local governments, academia. • The authorized increases were well thought out and directed at specific initiative areas that address several key national needs. These include: • Completing the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) by USGS • Developing, operating, and maintaining the George E. Brown, Jr., Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) by NSF • Implementing an R&D roadmap to close the “research-to-practice” gap by NIST • Operating and maintaining the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) by USGS and NSF

22. Mandated Program Activities • Develop effective measures for earthquake hazards reduction • Promote the adoption of earthquake hazards reduction measures by Federal, State, and local governments, national standards and model code organizations, architects and engineers, building owners, and others with a role in planning and constructing buildings, structures, and lifelines through: • grants, contracts, cooperative agreements, and technical assistance; • development of standards, guidelines, and voluntary consensus codes for earthquake hazards reduction for buildings, structures, and lifelines; • development and maintenance of a repository of information, including technical data, on seismic risk and hazards reduction • Improve the understanding of earthquakes and their effects on communities, buildings, structures, and lifelines, through interdisciplinary research that involves engineering, natural sciences, and social, economic, and decisions sciences • Develop, operate, and maintain an Advanced National Seismic Research and Monitoring System, the George E. Brown, Jr. Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation, and the Global Seismographic Network.

23. NEHRP Lead Agency • Congress recognized that NIST had a critical role to play and was best suited to provide leadership and coordination for NEHRP. • P.L. 108-360 designates NIST as the lead agency for NEHRP, transferring responsibility from FEMA which had that role from the program’s inception. • The law assigns NIST responsibilities for the overall planning, coordination, and management of NEHRP, with several new responsibilities that were not carried out previously. • The law also assigns NIST significant new R&D responsibilities to close the “research-to-practice” gap and accelerate the use of new earthquake risk mitigation technologies based on the earth sciences and engineering knowledge developed through NEHRP efforts. • Congress authorized $10 million for NIST in FY 2005, $11 million in FY 2005, increasing to $14.6 million in FY 2009.

24. Agency Roles and Responsibilities • FEMA is responsible for emergency response and management, estimation of loss potential, and implementation of mitigation actions.  • NIST conducts applied earthquake engineering research to provide the technical basis for building codes, standards, and practices, and provides the NEHRP lead agency function. • NSF conducts basic research in seismology, earthquake engineering, and social, behavioral, and economic sciences and operates the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (which includes the tsunami wave basin research facility and supporting tsunami research).  • USGS operates seismic networks, develops seismic hazard maps, coordinates post-earthquake investigations, and conducts applied earth sciences research (which includes tsunami research and risk assessment).  • NSF and USGS jointly support the Global Seismographic Network (GSN)—the main facility for pinpointing earthquakes in real time.

25. Lead Agency Functions • The NEHRP Lead Agency oversees the planning, management, and coordination of the program. • Chair the Interagency Coordinating Committee (ICC)—composed of the directors of FEMA, USGS, NSF, OSTP, and OMB. • Provide coordination by working with the ICC, which is required to meet no less than 3 times a year, to: • develop, not later than 6 months after enactment, and update periodically a strategic plan that establishes goals and priorities for the program, and a detailed management plan to implement the strategic plan; • provide guidance to the program agencies in preparation of annual budgets, and develop and submit annually a coordinated interagency budget that ensures appropriate balance among the program activities and in accordance with the strategic and management plans; and • transmit—at the time of the President’s budget request to Congress—annual report with consolidated program priorities, budgets, and results, including an assessment of program effectiveness.

26. Lead Agency Functions (2) • Establish and support operation of an Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction with members to be selected and appointed by the NIST Director. The Advisory Committee is required to: • Submit a report to the NIST Director—not later than 1 year after enactment and at least once every 2 years thereafter—on its findings related to trends and development, program effectiveness, and the management, coordination, and implementation of the program. • Report on its recommendations for ways to improve the program. • Ensure that the Program includes the necessary steps to promote the implementation of earthquake hazard reduction measures by Federal, State, and local governments, national standards and model building code organizations, architects and engineers, and others with a role in planning and constructing buildings and lifelines. • Request the assistance of Federal agencies other than the program agencies, as necessary to assist in carrying out the law.

27. Plan for NEHRP Program Office • Subject to availability of funds, NIST plans to establish a NEHRP Program Office within its Building and Fire Research Laboratory. • The Office with the status of a NIST division, will be led by a full-time NEHRP Director who will be appointed at the SES or equivalent level in keeping with prior practice. • The Office will include 5 NEHRP-wide program coordinators, a committee secretariat (ICC, Advisory Committee, ICSSC, and liaison with the USGS Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee), an administrative officer, and a secretary. • The NEHRP program coordinators will cover the following areas: • Earthquake Risk Mitigation, including codes and standards for buildings and lifelines, NEHRP Provisions • Earthquake Sciences, including ANSS, GSN, Post-EQ investigations • Earthquake Engineering, including NEES and Performance-based earthquake engineering • Emergency Management and Social Sciences, including earthquake preparedness and loss-estimation. • Program Planning, Evaluation, and Budget

28. “Research-to-Practice” Gap • NEHRP Strategic Plan identified a major technology transfer gap that limits the adaptation of basic research knowledge into practice. • At the request of NIST, the Applied Technology Council developed an R&D roadmap in 2003 to address the “research-to-practice” gap. • The R&D roadmap, developed by leading industry and other stakeholders, identified the need for $6.5 million in sustained annual funding for its implementation.

29. R&D Roadmap Goal and Outcome • Goal: To develop more efficient, effective, and technically reliable practice for earthquake engineering design and construction. • Outcome: To realize—in real life and in real buildings and lifelines—the potential of the significant investment the nation has made in developing new information and knowledge through research over many years. • Better earthquake safety • Adequate post-earthquake functioning • More economy in construction • The R&D roadmap provides a framework through which the practicing engineering professions can form a permanent link with the information and research resources of the federal government and universities. • R&D roadmap implementation is planned to be user- and needs-driven and run like a business enterprise, combining both an extramural component (60%) and an intramural component (40%)

30. R&D Roadmap Technical Elements • Subject area: Systematic support of the seismic code development process. • Program Element 1 Provide technical support for the seismic practice and code development process. • Program Element 2 Develop the technical basis for performance-based seismic engineering by supporting problem-focused, user-directed research and development. • Subject area: Improve seismic design and construction productivity. • Program Element 3 Support the development of technical resources (e.g., guidelines and manuals) to improve seismic engineering practice. • Program Element 4 Make evaluated technology available to practicing professionals in the design and construction communities. • Program Element 5 Develop tools to enhance the productivity, economy and effectives of the earthquake resistant design and construction process.

31. R&D Roadmap Cost Estimate ($M) • Program Element Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Sustaining • Code development support program • Program Element 1 • Technical support for short-term projects that • support practice and code development 1.00 0.75 0.75 1.00 • Program Element 2 • Long-term problem-focused research on • performance-based seismic engineering 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 • Improving design and construction productivity • Program Element 3 • Problem-focused research and technical resources • development (guidelines and manuals) 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 • Program Element 4 • Evaluated technologies distilled and distributed • through TechBriefs 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 • Program Element 5 • Productivity and interoperability 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.25 • Total 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

32. NEHRP Lead Agency Cost Estimate • Lead Agency Management Function $3.5 M/yr • Lead Agency R&D Roadmap $6.5 M/yr Implementation • FY 2006 Authorization $11 M/yr

33. Current Status • Formulation and submission of FY 2007 budget request. • Consultations with OSTP and NEHRP agencies on how best to move forward in the interim. • Briefings to stakeholder community on plans and status