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NWS Rip Current Forecasting Program

NWS Rip Current Forecasting Program. NWS Rip Current Forecasts. Surf Zone Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook Rip Current Statement. NWS Rip Current Outlooks Definitions. Rip Current Outlooks use the following, three-tiered set of qualifiers:

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NWS Rip Current Forecasting Program

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  1. NWS Rip Current Forecasting Program

  2. NWS Rip Current Forecasts • Surf Zone Forecast • Hazardous Weather Outlook • Rip Current Statement

  3. NWS Rip Current Outlooks Definitions • Rip Current Outlooks use the following, three-tiered set of qualifiers: • Low Risk of rip currents. Wind and/or wave conditions are not expected to support the development of rip currents; however, rip currents can sometimes occur, especially in the vicinity of groins, jetties, and piers. Know how to swim and heed the advice of lifeguards. • Moderate Risk of rip currents. Wind and/or wave conditions support stronger or more frequent rip currents. Only experienced surf swimmers should enter the water. • High Risk of rip currents. Wind and/or wave conditions support dangerous rip currents. Rip currents are life-threatening to anyone entering the surf.

  4. WFO Northern Indiana Rip Current Outlook Forecasting Scheme • Low Risk of rip currents. Waves forecast in the 1-3ft range or less. • Moderate Risk of rip currents. Waves forecast in the 2-4ft range. • High Risk of rip currents. Waves forecast in the 3-5ft range or higher. • Seiche activity increases rip current risk. • Weekends/Holidays…err on the side of caution • Climatologically low Lake Michigan water levels increase rip current risk while high levels decrease risk.

  5. Lake Michigan Water Levels

  6. Lake Michigan Water Level 1 1/2ft Below Normal

  7. Surf Zone Forecast

  8. Weather.gov/iwx

  9. Hazardous Weather Outlook

  10. Rip Current Statement- Moderate Risk

  11. Rip Current Statement- High Risk

  12. Rip Current Statement on NWS Web Page

  13. Headline in Point and Click Forecast

  14. http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/

  15. NWS Chat

  16. https://nwschat.weather.gov/

  17. 2010 Rip Current Statement Stats • Season is 130 days long • 28 Statements issued (approx. 22% of the days) • May 1 • Jun 7 • Jul 4 • Aug 7 • Sep 10 • By comparison… only 19 Lakeshore Hazard Messages issued in the summer of 2009

  18. Beach Observations

  19. Suggestions/Comments/Questions?

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