INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment

1. INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment A Climate Change Initiative Subodh Sharma, Adviser Ministry of Environment & Forests

2. Context Climate Change • Impact of human activities on climate systems is unequivocal. • Observed changes in climate over the Indian region: • An increase of 0.4oC in the last 100 years • Substantial changes in precipitation on a spatial scale • An increase in intensity of heavy precipitation events • Rise in sea level along the Indian coast @ 1.06-1.25 mm/year over last 40 years • Climate projections indicate- • Rise in temperature by 2-4oC by 2050s • Decrease in number of rainy days • Increase in intensity of rain fall • Adverse impacts on key economic sectors and vulnerabilities of climate sensitive regions

3. Relevance India’s socio-economic setting • Over 50% of population (> 500 million) without access to electricity. • Over 75% of household energy consumption is for the basic human need of cooking. Over 70% households use traditional biomass for cooking • 34.7% and 79.9% population below income level of $1 and $2 a day respectively • Illiteracy, Gender Inequality/Disempowerment, High Infant Mortality Rate and Maternal Mortality Rate, Poor Health & Housing result in India’s low Human Development Index (HDI) • India needs inclusive GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic & social well being.

4. The Concerns • Climate Change Impacts our activities in various Economic sectors • And ultimately • Sustainable development • Food security • Energy Security • Economic growth and development

5. Climate Change in the Indian Context

6. Climate Change Projections Seasonal Precipitation projections Seasonal Temperature projections Spatial patterns of projected seasonal surface air temperature change (°C) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. (SRES IS92a) Spatial patterns of projected seasonal precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for 2050s relative to 1990s, under transient increase of greenhouse gas concentrations (SRES Is92a)

7. Projected Climate Change over India • Increase in rainfall by 15-40% by the end of the 21st century with high regional variability • increase in mean annual temperature by 3°C to 6°C by the end of 21st century. The warming is projected to be more pronounced over land areas, with the maximum increase over northern India. The warming is also relatively greater in winter and post-monsoon seasons.

8. Salient FindingsClimate Change Parameters Trends for 2030s in A1B Intensity No. of Rainy days Key increase Slight increase No change decrease No particular trend

9. Salient FindingsTrends in Impacts for 2030s in A1B Key increase Slight increase No change decrease No particular trend

10. Impact Assessments T W Open for months 4-6 7-9 CARNICOBAR 10-12 N.A Agriculture Water Coastal zones 4.5t/ha (Control) 4.5/ha (Climate Change) 2.5t/ha (Control) 2.5/ha (Climate Change) Malaria • Acute physical water scarce conditions • Constant water scarcities and shortage • Seasonal / regular stressed conditions • Rare water shortages Forests

11. Projected Impact on River Runoff for the Period 2040-60 • Acute physical water scarce conditions • Constant water scarcities and shortage • Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions • Rare water shortages

12. Dry savannah Xeric Shrub land Tropical Seasonal Forest Boreal Evergreen Tundra Xeric woodland Impacts on Forest Biomes • Forest biomes in India seem to be highly vulnerable to the projected change • Majority of the vegetation is likely to be less optimally adapted to its existing location • Biodiversity is also likely to be adversely impacted

13. Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Malaria Increase in temperature is projected to enhance the occurrence and spread of Malaria Malaria is likely to occur at elevations higher than 1800m More states may offer climate opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year. Transmission windows may increase by 3-5 months in northern states and may reduce by 2-3 months in the southern states. Current Endemic regions of malaria Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s

14. Impact of increasing temperature on future wheat production Any decrease in irrigation in Indo Gangatic Plains (IGP) would further reduce yields

15. Vulnerable areas along Indian Coastline • A long term average rising trend of 1 mm/year in sea level observed • Sea level changes are also due • to – • Tectonic movement • Prevalent hydrography • Physiography. • A one-meter sea level rise is projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5764 km2 of land area will be lost along with 4200 km of roads

16. Emerging science questions • What is the current climate trend across the key regions in the country and how is it likely to behave in the in short, medium and long term future? • What are the implications of the projected changes of climate on ecosystems specific to these regions? • What are implications of changes in ecosystems on human societies including its health and migration of population in these regions? • What are the adaptation needs and associated costs? • What are the trends of agents of change? • How can we use the evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change?

17. Objectives • Objective 1: Observe and understand the short- and long-term changes in climate over India • Objective 2: Understand the impacts of changes in climate on key sectors of economy and at regional scales • Objective 3: Develop comprehensive climate change assessment and adaptation frameworks • Objective 4: To analyse the trends of greenhouse gas, other trace gas and pollutants emitted from various sectors • Objective 5: To build capacity for undertaking research to understand the changes in climate and related environment and develop strategies to combat the change

18. Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) :Institutional Mechanism • To build on existing network of Institutions (e.g. NATCOM) that comprise of Research institutions, Universities, Technical institutions, NGOs, private sector wide • Propose to involve Indian Expertise abroad • Create/Associate New Agencies and/or Devise Operational Arrangements • Participating Institutions shall serve as the KNOWLEDGE INSTITUTIONS

19. INCAA Programmes Developing scenarios Impact Assessments Integrated V&A Assessments INCCA Climate Change Fellowships Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme Black Carbon Ecosystem Monitoring Centre for Advanced Studies

20. Water Agriculture Health Programme Components of INCAA Climate change Socio-economic Developing scenarios Impact Assessments Natural ecosystem Integrated V&A Assessments INCAA Water-Agri-food security-livelihood Sources Water-Gender-Poverty Black Carbon Water-health-livelihhood Monitoring & Modeling Forest-livelihoods Impacts Ecosystem-Livelihoods Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme Sea level rise- extreme event-livelihoods Centre for Advanced Studies Climate change & Biodiversity Ecosystem Monitoring

21. Deliverables INCAA will provide: • Annual Level Assessments at various levels • An Integrated Assessment of Science and Impacts of climate change in India across sectors • Archive and publish model products, scenarios, visualization products, assessments tools and approaches of assessments

22. CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: A 4X4 ASSESSMENT A SECTORAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS FOR 2030S INCCA Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007 INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment November 2010 Government of India Ministry of Environment and Forests Ministry of Environment & Forests Government of India May 2010 The INCCA Assessments Released in Novemeber,2010 Released in May, 2010 Available at www.moef.nic.in

23. INCAA & Network for preparation of GHG inventories 2007

24. Key Results • The total net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.71 million tons of CO2 equivalent (eq) of which - CO2 emissions were 1221.76 million tons; - CH4 emissions were 20.56 million tons; and - N2O emissions were 0.57 million tons • GHG emissions from Energy, Industry, Agriculture, and Waste sectors constituted 58%, 22%, 17% and 3% of the net CO2 eq emissions respectively. • Energy sector emitted 1100.06 million tons of CO2 eq, of which 719.31 million tons of CO2 eq were emitted from electricity generation and 142.04 million tons of CO2 eq from the transport sector. • Industry sector emitted 412.55 million tons of CO2 eq. LULUCF sector was a net sink. It sequestered 177.03 million tons of CO2. • India’s per capita CO2 eq emissions including LULUCF were 1.5 tons/capita in 2007.

25. The 4x4 Assessment • Focus on 4 climate sensitive regions in India - Himalayan Region - North Eastern Region - Western Ghats - Coastal region • Assess what would be the likely impacts in 2030s on - Agriculture - Ecosystems and biodiversity - Water resources and - Human health affected by climate variability • 2030s, appropriate for A1B scenario for adaptation.

26. Irrigated rice Rainfed rice Emerging results - Agriculture • There is a general decrease in productivity of crops however cash crops like coconut may increase. • Some species of marine fisheries are likely to have higher catch compared to others as their area of spawning shifts to higher latitudes • The livestock productivity is likely to be affected adversely with increase in extreme temperatures

27. Projected changes - Water Water yield – Himalayan region: is likely to increase North Eastern region:Reduction Western ghats: Variable water yield changes projected across the region Coastal region:A general reduction in water yield

28. Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity Projected changes in Forest vegetation Forests: Changes in vegetation type and decrease in Net Primary productivity is projected Grass land: Enhanced CO2 levels are projected to favor C3 plants over C4 grasses, but the projected increase in temperature would favour C4 plants Coral reefs: Increase in temperature will lead to bleaching of corals Mangroves: Sea-level rise leading to increase the salinity may favour mangrove plants that tolerate higher salinity Key: 1: Tropical evergreen forest/woodland, 2: Tropical deciduous forest/woodland, 3: Temperate evergreen broadleaf forest/woodland, 4: Temperate evergreen conifer forest/woodland, 5: Temperate deciduous forest/woodland, 6: Boreal evergreen forest/woodland, 7: Boreal deciduous forest/woodland, 8: Mixed forest/woodland, 9: Savanna, 10: Grassland/steppe, 11: Dense shrubland, 12: Open shrubland, 13: Tundra, 14: Desert, 15: Polar desert/rock/ice

29. Projected Changes in Human Health • Likely increase in morbidity due to rise in extreme temperatures • Likely increase in morbidity and mortality due to increase in water borne diseases (enhanced flooding and SLR) • Reduced crop yields may raise malnutrition cases (climate) • Increase in incidence of malaria due to opening up of transmission windows at higher altitudes (climate) 1970s 2030s Transmission windows of Malaria

30. Approaches to address Climate Change Strategies

31. Relevance and Opportunities for Geospatial Technologies Forestry Mapping Environmental Management In a number of Application Segments in the area of Aerial Photography Remote Sensing Climate Change Surveying Integrated Coastal Zone Management Disaster Management GHG Monitoring Data Analysis and Integration Earth Observation System Enhanced Relevance in light of the recent Cancun Agreements and Reporting requirements of the Parties

32. Thank You!

33. Institutional Arrangement- Inventory

34. NPL CPCB NSWAI EPTRI NIUA INCCA - Green House Gas Inventory INCCA MoEF Estimation Green House Gas Emissions LULUCF Agriculture Industrial Processes & Product Use Waste Energy CMA NBSSLUP FSI IARI CIMFR CEA UAS-B ISRO NDRI CII TERI JU IFGTB IIRS IGFRI CGCRI CRRI IIP AFRI NRSC IVRI ILZDA PCRA ARAI ARCBR ICFRE AMA SIAM NATRIP HFRI CSFE ISCA CRRI CMA TFRI FRCEH FAI CFRHRD RRI EIAI IWST NEERI

35. Institutional Arrangement – V&A