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European Security: A View from East-central Europe

European Security: A View from East-central Europe. Pál Dunay, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 16 September 2008. East-central Europe.

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European Security: A View from East-central Europe

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  1. European Security: A View from East-central Europe Pál Dunay, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 16 September 2008

  2. East-central Europe • The eastern part of Central Europe. Former socialist/communist countries that were historically East of the Elbe and West of the border of the Soviet Union. (Former non-Soviet Warsaw Pact (NSWP).) The three Baltic states qualified in this group so did Slovenia and Croatia. • Civilizational divide. Empires until 1918... • Since then: Small and medium-size countries

  3. EUROPE in 1970

  4. End of the Cold War • The countries of the region used this period for rapid internal and external politico-economic re-orientation. • Challenging tasks: Everything urgent... • Countries with little political stability. (governments come and go). Does not help complex transformation. • Externally: abolish the past, integrate in a new future.

  5. Benign external environment in the 1990s • The advantage of thinking in regional terms. • Residual threat perceptions. Difficult to identify. • Difficult to answer the questions: - Who is the source of threat? - What is the source of threat? • Yugoslavia: War without horizontal escalation tendency.

  6. The changing status quo • Support to the change of political status quo. - The decisive role of the U.S. in the process. - Pro-change of status quo in East-central Europe. - Earns credit in the region. • Resistance to change remains limited from the „loser” of the process: Russia.

  7. The New Europe • Unification or redivision of Europe? • Ignoring soft resistance. • „Return to Europe” (Hável) • Terminating the „ferry-boat country status”. • Keep supporting the change of status quo in the western Balkans. • Support for support...

  8. Integration • Institutional integration followedgrass-root economic, political and military integration. • Moving from policy-taker to policy-shaper status? (And certainly not to the status of policy-maker.) • Interactive process: The geopolitics of Europe is affected by East-central Europe’s participation in the EU and NATO.

  9. The early-21st century • The global change of status quo under U.S. leadership continues and divides Europe. • ECE hesitantly (?) follows the U.S. • The more the countries of the region are concerned about their security, the more forthcoming they are on supporting the U.S. • The illusion of Europe „whole and free” recedes in a distance and finally vanishes.

  10. Status Quo • U.S.: Seize the moment to continue to change the global status quo. Costs are mounting... • Russia: Builds its own sphere of influence (empire?) and finds the time appropriate to reverse the status quo that has changed to its disadvantage. • Brezhnev-doctrine for the 12 former Soviet republics?

  11. The Problems for East-central Europe • Whose position should countries of the region share if their mentors show in different direction? • The geographic confines of their interests. • Security matters are broadly defined and more integrated with other issues. • How could any of these countries deny the right of others for peaceful democratic transformation when they have benefited from the same process?

  12. Tendencies • A new combination of old and new security matters. • Terrorism? • Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction? • Organized crime. • Energy security. • Hegemonic aspirations to curtail the freedom of choice of other countries. • Militarization of the political conflict between Russia and the West.

  13. No new structure, new agenda • The structure of international relations has not changed since the early-1990s. • The issues have changed, most notably with 9/11. • The recent assertive politics of Russia vis-a-vis countries that have embarked upon „colour revolution” is worrying for the region.

  14. No new structure, new agenda (2) • The reaction to the redivision of Europe: - No interest in the division for some. - Joining the conciliatory line of some western countries (Germany, others?) - Confrontational line – resisting the revision of the status quo – for some others. • Are we heading to a world that we once understood? No, but...

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