1 / 11

The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity

The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity. Phil Rees QMSS2 Summer School Projection Methods for Ethnicity and Immigration Status 2-9 July 2009 School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK. Outline of topics. Internal migration: definitions and sources

ramona
Download Presentation

The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity Phil Rees QMSS2 Summer School Projection Methods for Ethnicity and Immigration Status 2-9 July 2009 School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK

  2. Outline of topics • Internal migration: definitions and sources • The evidence for ethnic differences in internal migration • Raymer and Giullieti • Hussein, Stillwell and Norman • Framework for estimation of internal migration • Available data sets • The exercise for the afternoon

  3. What is internal migration? • Internal migration is the change of residence within a country • Both origin and destination residence is within the same country • The changes of residence are usually aggregated into origin-destination tables • Origins and destination zones are usually based on the administrative hierarchy of the country (e.g. ward  municipalitycountyregion; LAU1LAU2NUTS3NUTS2NUTS1) • For the purposes of population projection, you normally ignore intra-zone migration

  4. What are the important interactions? Evidence from the literature • Work of Raymer and co-authors establishes that OD patterns differ between ethnic groups • But only five ethnic groups • Work of Hussein and Stillwell show that the ethnic groups differ in net migration patterns • But only seven ethnic groups

  5. Hussain & Stillwell: net migration results

  6. Table 1: Portion of an internal migration matrix, 2001 Census Census data are transitions over one year, 2000-1

  7. Table 2: Part of a Patient Register Data System PRDS matrix,2006-7 PRDS migration data are transitions adjusted to agree with NHSCR migration data which are moves

  8. NHSCR data for UK NUTS1 regions , 2006-7

  9. Migration schedule by single years of age (2001 Census)

  10. Problem: how to use this information to produce a consistent estimate? • Definitions of dimensions • O = origins (352 LAs in E, 22 in Wales, Scot + N Ire) • D = destinations (ditto) • E = ethnic groups (16 in 2001 Census) • A = ages (0 … 100 for projection model) • S = sexes (men, women) • T = time intervals (my: 2000-1 to 2007-8) • One solution: ODE + AS + T • Use the origin-destination structures by age multiplied by age-sex probabilities for all migrants multiplied by time series factors • Can we do better than this?

  11. Exercise • Aim: to help me to develop a feasible model for estimating internal migration by ethnicity that captures the main effects but is not too complex • Read and report on the set of papers • Raymer 2008 RMF • Raymer 2008 EAPS • Raymer and Giulietti 2009 • Stillwell and Hussein 2008 • Hussein and Stillwell 2008 • Stillwell, Hussein and Norman 2008 • Design a possible solution

More Related