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Application of KERMIT in the DOE LTS process

Application of KERMIT in the DOE LTS process. Julia Matevosyan, Resource Adequacy January, 2014. Motivation.

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Application of KERMIT in the DOE LTS process

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  1. Application of KERMIT in the DOE LTS process Julia Matevosyan, Resource Adequacy January, 2014

  2. Motivation • ERCOT’s transmission planning processes so far relied on generation expansion tools (Market Power), production cost simulation tools (PROMOD, UPLAN) and tools for AC analysis (PSS/E, PowerWorld). • These tools do not capture intra-hourly production variability of the renewables and ability of the future generation fleet to maintain system frequency at all times. • Planning scenarios with high share of renewables may require higher operating reserves to achieve acceptable frequency performance. • Consideration of higher operating reserves impacts unit commitment and dispatch. It may also impact generation expansion in a scenario. • Need for a new tool that would capture: • Renewable power production uncertainty and variability; • Relevant ERCOT market and operation processes.

  3. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT analysis • ERCOT procured KEMA’s Renewable Market Integration Tool (KERMIT), for assessment of operating reserves needed to balance generation portfolios with increasing share of renewables. • KERMIT is Simulink/Matlab/Excel based platform. • Models generation fleet, load and renewable variability, generation and system frequency control actions (governor response, AGC). • Simulates second-by-second system operation, for 24 hour horizon. • Provides an assessment of a power system’s ability to achieve adequate balancing and maintain system frequency.

  4. Relevant ERCOT Processes and Modules in KERMIT KERMIT Modules Inertia response First few seconds Governor response 10-30 seconds Regulation (AGC) 20 seconds to 5 minutes SCED every 5 minutes Separate Module outside of KERMIT Unit Commitment Every hour

  5. Metrics to use for reserve adequacy analysis For planning scenarios, real time operation can be simulated with KERMIT for representative days in a year. The following metrics can be used to assess reserve adequacy of future generation scenario: • Sufficiency of available resources to balance renewables and load variability; • System frequency second to second; • Compliance with NERC’s Control Performance Standard 1, (CPS1 ≥ 100%), If reserve adequacy is not established, higher reserve requirements should be added in production cost simulation and study needs to be re-ran.

  6. Scenarios studied in KERMIT as a part of DOE LTS • Scenario 3 (S3) – BAU all Tech • 18 GW Wind & 2.5 GW Solar • Year 2022 • Scenario 8 (S8) Environmental with DR/EE mandates, • 50 GW Wind & 1.5 GW Geothermal • Year 2016

  7. Results of Reserve Adequacy Study for Planning Scenarios The results from the KERMIT study show: • Unit commitment in both scenarios does not have sufficient dispatchable capacity to follow 5-minute to 5-minute net load ramp-ups in spring and autumn months (low load/high wind situations); • In both scenarios without additional reserves, NERC Reliability Standard is not fulfilled (CPS1<100%); • Hypothetical reserve with 0 start up time and ramping capability of 800MW/5min (S3) and 1300 MW/5min (S8) was added to achieve CPS1 score similar to the current situation; • Seldom-occurring high-magnitude net load ramps call for significant increase in deployments of existing quick-start/non-spin reserves. • In S8 at low load/high wind conditions, conventional generators are dispatched close to minimum and are not able to follow 5-minute to 5-minute net load ramp-downs. Wind energy curtailment.

  8. Results of Reserve Adequacy Study for Planning Scenarios

  9. Impact of the assumptions • Only normal operation was studied with KERMIT for the future scenarios. • Scenarios with large amount of renewable (non-synchronous) generation may lead to unacceptably large frequency deviations during generation outages. • This may become a limiting factor on share of renewables that can be reliably integrated in the ERCOT system. • The study was based on the assumption that ERCOT electricity market design will remain unchanged. • More frequent deployment of non-spinning reserves and intra-day unit commitment compared to current situation may call for changes in market design and/or Ancillary Services products.

  10. Conclusions • ERCOT has recently improved the planning process to include the impact of high renewables on the system. • In both studied scenarios the system needs more reserves through a new 5 min AS product or increase in Regulation Reserve requirement. • There are a few but highly impactful high magnitude ramps caused by renewables • Curtailments will be necessary to maintain system reliability in low load/high wind situations • Simulation of generator outages in KERMIT may put additional restrictions on amount of renewables in ERCOT system and will be studied in the future work.

  11. Appendix: Planning Process Future generation mix scenario Production Cost Simulation (PROMOD) Is solution feasible? No Transm. upgrades Yes Transm. violations? Yes No Results New sub-process in a Long Term Study

  12. Appendix: Unit Commitment -> SCED Module -> KERMIT Load, 1-sec Hourly Load Load 5-min Varia-bility UC SCED KERMIT (Inertia, Gov. resp. AGC) Gen. Outputs 5-min Dispatch Hourly Gen. Dispatch Frequency Wind Curtail. Wind, 5-min Varia-bility Hourly Wind Wind, 1-sec 1 second resolution 5 minute resolution 1 hour resolution

  13. Appendix: KERMIT PGen PRRS Δf Load RRS Load (1-sec) Freq. change AGC Δf ΔPReg PLoad Conv. Plants PG  Δf PGen PBP Δf PRenew Renewables PBP SCED (5-min) PBP Renew. (1-sec) PRenew. PStorage Δf Storage

  14. Appendix: DOE LTS Scenario Examples S8, 2016, 39 GW of new wind S3, 2022, 7GW of new wind, 2.5 GW solar Economic assessments performed as part of the DOE study suggested increasing proportions of wind generation on the ERCOT system. We needed to assess the adequacy of operational reserves for increasing proportions of wind and solar generation.

  15. Appendix: Scenario 3 (BAU All Tech with New Wind profiles)

  16. Appendix: Scenario 8 (Environmental Base)

  17. Appendix, new wind projects in S8 (2016) Zone MW NORTH13 260 NORTH CE766 WEST5 490 SOUTH CE200 SOUTH17 809 Austin601 Dallas776 Total 38 900

  18. Appendix, new wind projects in S3 (2022) Zone MW NORTH4792 NORTH CE205 WEST1 971 Total 6 968 Wind (7 GW) Solar (2.5 GW) Gas (17.9 GW)

  19. Studied scenarios, S3 and S8

  20. Appendix: Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study

  21. Appendix: Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study

  22. Appendix: Results of Reserve Adequacy Study for a Planning Scenario

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