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U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cay Goude Ryan Olah Steve Detwiler Victoria Poage Derek Hilts

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cay Goude Ryan Olah Steve Detwiler Victoria Poage Derek Hilts. California Department of Fish and Game Matt Nobriga. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Bruce Herbold. U.S. Geological Survey Pete Smith. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Mike Chotkowski

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U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cay Goude Ryan Olah Steve Detwiler Victoria Poage Derek Hilts

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  1. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cay Goude Ryan Olah Steve Detwiler Victoria Poage Derek Hilts California Department of Fish and Game Matt Nobriga U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Bruce Herbold U.S. Geological Survey Pete Smith U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Mike Chotkowski Lenny Grimaldo Fred Feyrer Shane Hunt U.C. Davis Michael Johnson Summary of Central Valley Project and State Water Project Effects on Delta Smelt Frederick Feyrer U.S. Bureau of Reclamation on behalf of the OCAP Technical Support Team:

  2. Non-native species Food Contaminants Zooplankton (Jul-Oct) Bennett (2005) Background • Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is highly complex • Decline of delta smelt cannot be solely explained by CVP/SWP • operations Kimmerer (2008) Bennett (2005)

  3. Background • Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is highly complex • Decline of delta smelt cannot be solely explained by CVP/SWP • operations • Direct effects – entrainment • Indirect effects – hydrodynamic conditions

  4. Background • Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is highly complex • Decline of delta smelt cannot be solely explained by CVP/SWP • operations • Direct effects – entrainment • Indirect effects – hydrodynamic conditions Effects analysis organized by season and life stage

  5. Quantitative Life Cycle Model Under Development, . . . still is Individual-based model Kenny Rose Wim Kimmerer Matrix models Bill Bennett Particle tracking model Stephen Monismith

  6. Organization of the effects analysis

  7. Organization of the effects analysis • Winter: • Entrainment of migratory and • spawning adults

  8. Organization of the effects analysis • Winter: • Entrainment of migratory and • spawning adults • Spring & Summer: • Entrainment of larvae and juveniles

  9. Organization of the effects analysis • Winter: • Entrainment of migratory and • spawning adults • Spring & Summer: • Entrainment of larvae and juveniles • Fall: • Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults

  10. Total combined salvage Flow NTU & Delta outflow 2003 Turbidity 12 ntu Salvage Grimaldo et al. (2009) Winter (December-March) Entrainment of migratory and spawning adults • First flush and turbidity trigger • migration (Grimaldo et al. 2009)

  11. 50 15 19 7 4 FWS (2008) Kimmerer (2008) Winter (December-March) Entrainment of migratory and spawning adults • First flush and turbidity trigger • migration (Grimaldo et al. 2009) • Salvage patterns reflect Old and Middle • River flow (Kimmerer 2008; Grimaldo et al. • 2009)

  12. 50 15 19 7 4 FWS (2008) Kimmerer (2008) Winter (December-March) Entrainment of migratory and spawning adults • First flush and turbidity trigger • migration (Grimaldo et al. 2009) • Salvage patterns reflect Old and Middle • River flow (Kimmerer 2008; Grimaldo et al. • 2009) • Variable cumulative proportional loss of • population (Kimmerer 2008)

  13. Model Scenarios • Empirical • Study 7.0 – present day • Study 7.1 – near future • Study 8.0 – future (2030 development) • Study 9.0 – future (2030 development) • Study 9.1 – 0.33-meter sea level rise • Study 9.2 – wetter and warmer • Study 9.3 – wetter and warmer still • Study 9.4 – drier and warmer • Study 9.5 – drier and warmer still Near future Far future Climate change

  14. Winter (December-March) Entrainment of migratory and spawning adults • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) Increased frequency of more negative Old and Middle • River flow

  15. Winter (December-March) Entrainment of migratory and spawning adults • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) Increased frequency of more negative Old and Middle • River flow • B) Increased entrainment

  16. Spring & Summer (April-June) Entrainment of larvae and juveniles

  17. Spring & Summer (April-June) Entrainment of larvae and juveniles • Salvage patterns reflect Old and Middle River flow • (Kimmerer 2008; Grimaldo et al. 2009) • Variable cumulative proportional loss of population • (Kimmerer 2008)

  18. Spring & Summer (April-June) Entrainment of larvae and juveniles • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) Increased frequency of more negative Old and Middle • River flow in wet and above normal years

  19. Spring & Summer (April-June) Entrainment of larvae and juveniles • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) Increased frequency of more negative Old and Middle • River flow in wet and above normal years • B) Increased entrainment in wet and above normal years

  20. Fall (September-December) Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults

  21. Probability of occurrence Secchi depth 1:1 Specific conductance Feyrer et al. (2007) Fall (September-December) Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults • Delta smelt habitat is related to salinity • and turbidity (Bennett 2006; Feyrer et • al. 2007; Kimmerer et al. 2009)

  22. Fall (September-December) Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults • Delta smelt habitat is related to salinity • and turbidity (Bennett 2006; Feyrer et • al. 2007; Kimmerer et al. 2009) • Suitable habitat is related to X2 • (Feyrer et al. 2008)

  23. Fall (September-December) Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) X2 shift upstream

  24. Fall (September-December) Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) X2 shift upstream • B) Habitat space reduced

  25. Fall (September-December) Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults • Effects of modeled CVP/SWP operations (FWS 2008): • A) X2 shift upstream • B) Habitat space reduced • C) Loss of variability

  26. Summary Winter (December-March) - Entrainment of migratory and spawning adults • Increased frequency of more negative Old and Middle River flow • Increased entrainment • -In all but critical years Spring & Summer (April-June) - Entrainment of larvae & juveniles • Increased frequency of more negative Old and Middle River flow • Increased entrainment • -In wet and above normal years Fall (September-December) - Rearing habitat of maturing pre-adults • X2 shift upstream • B) Habitat reduced • C) Loss of variability

  27. Additional Considerations • Recent high exports and entrainment coincident with POD • (IEP 2008) • Abundance negatively related to exports * • (Bennett 2005; Thompson et al. 2010) • Entrainment is not a substantial source of mortality in every year • (Bennett 2005; Manly and Chotkowski 2006; IEP 2008; Kimmerer 2008) • Disproportionate cohort mortality • (Bennett 2005) • Weak statistical link between habitat and abundance • (Feyrer et al. 2007)

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