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Mercator Ocean: Enhancing Arctic Ocean Forecasting

Mercator Ocean, a leader in global ocean monitoring and forecasting, provides innovative solutions for Arctic GOOS. Offering real-time data assimilation, operational forecasting, and advanced ocean modeling. Explore our products at www.mercator.eu.org

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Mercator Ocean: Enhancing Arctic Ocean Forecasting

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  1. Pierre BAHUREL & Gilles GARRIC MERCATOR OCEAN MERCATOR OCEANFrench Global Ocean Monitoring and ForecastingContribution to Arctic GOOS 12 September 2006, Bergen, NERSC, ARCTIC GOOS meeting

  2. SATELLITE MODEL FORECAST In SITU MERCATOR OCEAN devoted to Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting • Ocean observations • 3D modelling • Real-time Data Assimilation • Operational forecasting since 2001 • A public company since 2002, entirely devoted to ocean forecasting Global ocean Coverage ¼° High res. 1/15° N.Atlantic and Med Sea First bulletin 1/3° N.Atlantic Kick-off A progressive implementation From Research to Operations A 10-year project 2003 2001 2005 1995

  3. Mercator Ocean forecasts online

  4. Example : the Sept 6 Bulletin (Forecast for Sept 19)

  5. Example : the Sept 6 Bulletin (Forecast for Sept 19)

  6. Mercator Ocean and the Arctic • The Global Ocean ¼° forecasting system • Version 1 • ¼° Global Ocean NEMO model ; • assimilation of sea surface height (altimetry) ; • operational since october 2005 • Version 2 • ¼° Global Ocean NEMO model + Louvain Ice Model • assimilation of sea surface height + in situ T/S + SST; • Under development ; operational in 2007

  7. Global Ocean Prediction system Version 2 with ice model (2007) Multi-data (SST, SLA and in situ T/S profiles) and multivariate assimilation (SEEK filter analysis method) + Global Coupled Ocean-Ice Model (NEMO/LIM2) ¼° ORCA grid resolution (Arctic and Nordic Seas : 8-18 km) ; 50 oceanic vertical levels (1m at the surface); 3 levels in viscous-plastic sea ice model. Runoffs (Iennissei, McKenzie, Ob, Lena, …) + ECMWF atmospheric forecasts and analysis + Monitoring and Forecasting Real-time operations Mercator Grid. Horizontal resolution in km

  8. Arctic and Nordic seas circulation • Ability to reproduce the complex circulation in the semi-enclosed Arctic basin. Mercator Ocean ¼° Global ocean output Surface current (m/s)

  9. Observations Cersat/Ifremer(12.5km) Arctic and Nordic seasSea ice Sea ice concentration – Mean March 2001 Model (Ocean+LIM2) MERCATOR (1/4°)

  10. Arctic and Nordic seasSea ice, concentration and thickness Mercator ¼° Global ocean model in the Arctic – Mean March 2001 Sea ice thickness Sea ice concentration

  11. Katabatic winds Sea ice concentration Sea ice production Arctic and Nordic seasSurface energy and Freshwater budgets • Exchanges between the upper ocean and atmosphere through the sea-ice cover and through open water (leads/polynyas) • An example from Mercator/Antarctica coastal polynias Realistic representation of the Prydz Bay polynia lifecyle.

  12. Conclusion & Related activities • A global operational forecasting system available • MERCATOR OCEAN will upgrade in 2007 its operational ¼° global ocean system, to extend its real-time monitoring and forecasting capacity to sea ice. • First outputs in the Arctic region are very encouraging. • Science • Investment on ocean/ice modelling (G.Garric) • Systematic comparison with observations (coll. IFREMER) and error analysis  Assimilation in sea ice • Implementation of sea ice-related metrics in the operational system (coll. NERSC) • IPY • Collaboration with Canada (IPY ; inter-comparison of sea ice models – Canadian Archipelago) • Connected to DAMOCLES IP • MERSEA, GMES and MCS • MERCATOR OCEAN, active partner of the MERSEA IP, deeply involved in the transition to an operational Marine Core Service • MERCATOR OCEAN is operating the European global ocean system • Contribution to the Arctic is build through NERCS coordination. Strong collaboration Mercator Ocean / NERSC to set up the relevant operational service. • MERCATOR OCEAN is ready and willing to contribute to the Arctic GOOS initiative

  13. Look at our products on the website www.mercator.eu.org Ask for products products@mercator-ocean.fr Contact our ice model expert Gilles.Garric@mercator-ocean.fr Contact me Pierre.Bahurel@mercator-ocean.fr Contacts

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