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Drought Outlook - High Plains

Drought Outlook - High Plains. Doug Kluck Regional Climate Services Director July 24, 2013 doug.kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 816-564-2417 (c). Last 30 Days: Percent of Normal Precipitation. Last 30 Days Precipitation. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/. Last 30 Days Temperatures.

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Drought Outlook - High Plains

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  1. Drought Outlook - High Plains Doug Kluck Regional Climate Services Director July 24, 2013 doug.kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 816-564-2417 (c) Last 30 Days: Percent of Normal Precipitation

  2. Last 30 Days Precipitation http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/

  3. Last 30 Days Temperatures

  4. Current Drought

  5. (Modeled) Soil Moistureas of July 18 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/

  6. Current Streamflow http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=ww_current

  7. Official Weather/Climate Outlooks(Temperatures, Precipitation & Drought) • 2 weeks out (8-14 days) • Monthly - August • 3 Month (August – September - October) • Drought Outlooks • *New* Monthly (August) • 3 Month (August – September – October) • El Nino/La Nina Outlooks and what they mean • Short Term (next 7 days) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  8. Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities for 7/31-8/6/13 Precipitation Temperatures http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

  9. August Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Precipitation Temperatures http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

  10. 3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities(August – September – October) Precipitation Temperatures http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

  11. Drought Outlooks August – September - October July http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

  12. La Nina or El Nino or Neither?

  13. Last five years have seen two ‘double-dip’ Las Niñas in a row, followed by a brief excursion to what looked like an El Niño event in 2012, a return to ENSO-neutral conditions as of last fall , with a recent drift towards La Niña.http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei

  14. If we look at similar 12-month runs of over the last six decades, there are three cases that were most similar: 1961-62, 1984-85, and 1998-99. The three most dissimilar (inverse) runs were in 1968-69, 1986-87, and 1989-1990. All six of these cases ended up with La Niña-like conditions later that year (flipped sign for the inverse cases). The odds for at least weak La Niña conditions are at least equal if not higher than ENSO-neutral for the next 3-6 months. The odds for El Niño are negligible in this time frame.

  15. Based on some ‘climate risk calculations (top) that show a double risk for very dry conditions during La Niña summers.Using similar May-June values of this SOI as observed in 2013, the right panels show average outcomes for June-July (top right) and August-September (bottom rightthe worst-case scenario... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/climaterisks/

  16. 7 Day Accumulated PrecipitationFinally Some Good News http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

  17. Thank You • Next Monthly Midwest and Great Plains Climate/Drought Outlook Webinar • August 15, 2013, 1 pm CDT – Sign Up Here: • http://drought.gov/drought/news/midwest-and-great-plains-drought-webinar-aug-15 • Or Send me an email at: Doug.kluck@noaa.gov and I’ll get you on our mailing list to get invitations and other climate information. Doug Kluck Doug.kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008

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