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Understanding Long-Term Southern Plains Drought Trends

Explore the causes and projections of drought trends in the Southern Plains region, including factors like global warming and natural variability. Analyze historical records and climate models to anticipate changes in precipitation variability and temperature. Stay informed on potential shifts in La Niña patterns and implications for drought intensity. Contact Texas State Climatologist John W. Nielsen-Gammon for more insights.

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Understanding Long-Term Southern Plains Drought Trends

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  1. Long-Term Trends in Southern Plains Drought John W. Nielsen-Gammon Texas State Climatologist Texas A&M University n-g@tamu.edu

  2. Definitions • Long-term: between 2 and 50 years from now • Trends: changes in expected frequency, duration, or intensity • Causes considered here: • Global warming • Natural ocean variability (ENSO, etc.)

  3. Key elements of drought • Too little rainfall • Too much evaporation (too hot) • For too long

  4. No big trend; what about variability? • Mixed signals from the historical record • Mixed signals from climate models • Changes to La Niña expected • Might become more common or intense • Might become less common or intense

  5. Left: observations. Right: projected change in annual precipitation variability (teal=increase, orange=decrease) from two climate models [Wetherald 2009].

  6. Schubert et al. (2009)

  7. Schubert et al. (2009)

  8. Hoerling et al. (2009)

  9. Hoerling et al. (2009)

  10. Shin et al. (2009)

  11. Nigam et al. (2011): AMO-Atl

  12. Pacific Texas Atlantic

  13. Long-Term Trends • Temporary period of reduced rainfall • Similar to 1950s! • A few more short droughts, or a long one? • Permanent period of increasing temperature • Higher evaporation • Reduced streamflow, reservoir levels • Greater water demand • Intensified drought

  14. Contact Information • John W. Nielsen-Gammon • n-g@tamu.edu • http://atmo.tamu.edu/osc • http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss • 979-862-2248

  15. Control Warming PDO Residual Wang et al. (2009)

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