1 / 53

Videoconferencing: the Next Frontier or the Newest Hinterland??

Videoconferencing: the Next Frontier or the Newest Hinterland??. Andrew W. Davis Managing Partner Wainhouse Research LLC andrewwd@wainhouse.com. Outline. Where have we been…. A statistical summary What’s happening now The view from 10,000 meters Back to earth realism. Factory Shipments.

rigg
Download Presentation

Videoconferencing: the Next Frontier or the Newest Hinterland??

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Videoconferencing:the Next Frontier orthe Newest Hinterland?? Andrew W. Davis Managing Partner Wainhouse Research LLC andrewwd@wainhouse.com Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  2. Outline • Where have we been…. A statistical summary • What’s happening now • The view from 10,000 meters • Back to earth realism Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  3. Factory Shipments Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  4. Factory Revenues Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  5. Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  6. Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  7. Desktop Statistics • Numbers too obtuse to be meaningful • Dedicated desktop conferencing clients .. hardware and software based (Polycom) • Server based solutions (Arel) with endpoints free • Video enabled web conferencing (WebEx services, WiredRed products) • IM and video chat sessions (AOL, Yahoo) • Videotelephony services (SightSpeed) are not included in my industry endpoint numbers • Logitech claims over 25,000,000 web cams shipped Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  8. Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  9. Outline • Where have we been…. A statistical summary • What’s happening now • The view from 10,000 meters • Back to earth realism Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  10. audio video data The Enterprise A Brief History: Vertical Pipes • Voice, video, data on separate networks • Separate endpoints • Separate purchasing • Separate support teams/reporting/mgmt 1985-2001 Model Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  11. audio video data The Enterprise Network Convergence Necessary but not sufficient to drive adoption IP Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  12. Communications Convergence • Deploy a single communications application that integrates voice, video, web (portal) • Add IM and Presence • Add browser interface • Integrate with enterprise scheduling, directories Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  13. Applications Convergence Business Applications • Collaboration becomes a feature, not a stand-alone solution • Could be vertical application specific • Contact center, tech support, etc. Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  14. And Now… Everyone is Pushing Unified Conferencing? The Best of Both Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  15. Unified Communications Real-Time Media Voice, Video, Data, Text, Wireless, Telecom, Internet Devices PC, Laptop, Tablet PC, PDA, Desktop and cell phone, softphones, pagers Real-Time SIP Based Services Presence, Identity, Authentication Collaboration Services Conferencing, IM, Presence, Mobility, V-Mail, E-Mail Business Application Integration CRM, ERP, MS Office, Sharepoint Portal Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  16. Microsoft’s View Intra-enterprise communications Inter-enterprise communications Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  17. Microsoft’s View Intra-enterprise communications Inter-enterprise communications Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  18. Unified Collaborative Communications End User Interface Real-Time Collaboration IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  19. Unified Collaborative Communications New applications Presence leverage Messaging Contact centers Open architecture API Flexibility 3rd party interworking Investment protection End User Interface Real-Time Collaboration IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  20. End User Non-Real-Time Real-Time Unified Messaging Content Management & eRooms IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Unified Collaborative Communications Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  21. End User Non-Real-Time Real-Time Unified Messaging Content Management & eRooms IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Unified Collaborative Communications MICROSOFT Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  22. End User Non-Real-Time Real-Time Unified Messaging Content Management & eRooms IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Unified Collaborative Communications CISCO Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  23. End User Non-Real-Time Real-Time Unified Messaging Content Management & eRooms IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Unified Collaborative Communications IBM Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  24. End User Non-Real-Time Real-Time Unified Messaging Content Management & eRooms IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Unified Collaborative Communications POLYCOM Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  25. End User Non-Real-Time Real-Time Unified Messaging Content Management & eRooms IP Telephony Collaboration Portal UI Business Process Software Unified Collaboration Environment Infrastructure Services Media Servers, Rights Management, Directories, Presence, Telephony Unified Collaborative Communications AVAYA Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  26. Outline • Where have we been…. A statistical summary • What’s happening now • The view from 10,000 meters • Back to earth realism Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  27. Room or group videoconferencing ISDN connectivity Stand-alone applications Unified collaborative communications IP connectivity Workflow integration at the desktop The Big Picture OLD NEW Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  28. Travel reduction Saved expenses Eliminate downtime Better teamwork Instantaneous communications Faster decision making Shorter time to market The Big Picture OLD NEW Hard benefits – easy to measure Soft benefits – difficult to measure Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  29. Society and Technology BAD Business Travel Inefficiency Videoconferencing NOT SO BAD 9/11/01 Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  30. The Big Picture OLD NEW • Aethra • Polycom • Sony • TANDBERG • Avaya • Cisco • IBM • Microsoft • Siemens Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  31. PictureTel VTEL GPT Mitsubishi The Big Picture REALLY OLD OLD NEW • Aethra • Polycom • Sony • TANDBERG • Avaya • Cisco • IBM • Microsoft • Siemens Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  32. Outline • Where have we been…. A statistical summary • What’s happening now • The view from 10,000 meters • Back-to-earth realism Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  33. Room videoconferencing systems Focus beyond travel reduction Management Interoperability Reliable ease of use What’s Missing Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  34. Personal Enterprise Videoconferencing Workflow integration Bandwidth Management PC complexity solutions What’s Missing Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  35. Consumer Videoconferencing Integration with Internet services Supportable systems PC complexity solutions Low cost appliances What’s Missing Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  36. Video Realism • Bandwidth is not (yet) free, especially in QoS environment • NAT-firewall obstacles remain • PC-based systems still problematic • For many, video remains a novelty • Video at desktop can be enslaving, not liberating Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  37. Presence • Embryonic today, a nuisance • Sophisticated tomorrow • Control systems • Multiple devices • Multiple networks • Intelligent rules Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  38. Innovator’s Dilemma Room Videoconferencing Systems Current technology High End User Rqmts Endpoint Quality Reliability Ease-of-Use, etc. Mainstream Requirements New technologies Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  39. Mainstream Requirements Innovator’s Dilemma Desktop Videoconferencing Systems Quality Reliability Ease-of-Use, etc. Capabilities Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  40. 2001: 49% 2003: 77% 1/95: 10% 1/04: 0.5% Internet Performance Support for VoIP Packet Loss Source: NetworkWorld 4/4/05 p22 Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  41. Innovator’s Dilemma The Internet Customer Requirements QoS VPN Public Internet Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  42. Technology Advances Technology Assimilation Gap Vendor technology capability Customer technology capability Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  43. The History of Videoconferencing Market Forecasts Revenues Optimist 1995 Optimist 1997 Optimist 1999 Optimist 2001 Pessimist Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  44. Adoption Time Gap PC = 120 million VoIP = 5 million DVC = 0.1 million PC Log (Adoption) VoIP Adoption Curve Unified Communications Adoption Curve Time Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  45. Dynamic Value Proposition 2008 Video 2006 Web Value Voice 2004 IM Fax Email Progress over time Complexity Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  46. The Desktop Environment is Mutating • Video is evolving from a desktop application to a desktop feature • Culture of anywhere, anytime connectivity will drive future • Most of the new IP-based features and services have not yet been invented • Look for impact of major vendors Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  47. Unified Collaborative Communications • Integrated with business process software • Used in everyday environment • Positions video as an add-on • Requires user education, rollout plans, training • Requires infrastructure investment Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  48. The Room System Environment is NOT Mutating • Systems continue price/performance improvements • Interoperability remains a problem, growing with increasing complexity, functionality, codec choices Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  49. Final Thoughts for End Users:Convergence Eliminates Barriers • Between geographies • Between time zones • Between teams and people • Between devices • Between applications Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

  50. Final Thoughts for End Users • The virtual enterprise • Collaborative groups • The real-time enterprise (Just In Time everything) • The ultimate competitive advantage • Translating learning into action • Faster decision making • Shorter time-to-market Your Source for Information & Analysis on Rich Media Communications

More Related