European Territorial Scenarios and VISION for 2050

1. European Territorial Scenarios and VISION for 2050 Andreu Ulied, MCRIT Lead Partner ET2050 ESPON MC Meeting, Krakow, December 1, 2011

2. FromProject Specifications: The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholdersat European, national and regional level, having 2050 as time horizon

4. Europe 2030 Reflexion Group “The challenges we face today are different to those of the past and call for different responses. Whether we look at relative demographic and economic decline, climate change or energy shortages the challenges can only be properly understood and tackled when situated in a regional and global context… …the choice for the EU is clear: reform or decline”.

5. ET2050 Consortium: 13 institutions from 10 EU countries ET2050 Objective: Supporting policy-makers defining the VISION ET2050 Methodology: Scientific and Politically driven ET2050 Work plan:Five Steps towards the VISION ET2050 End goal: The VISION 2050 IntroducingET2050…

6. ET2050 Consortium

7. ET2050 Consortium

8. ET2050 Consortium POLIMI Roberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi IOM Marek Kupiszewski Dorota Kupiszewska RIKS Jaspers de Vliet Hedwig van Delden Nordregio Alexandre Dubois University of Thessaly (UTH)Harry Coccosis WSEJacek Szlachta ISISCarlo Sessa ERSILIA Jaume Jorba MCRIT, LP Andreu Ulied Oriol Biosca Rafael Rodrigo TERSYN Jacques Robert IGEAT Moritz Lennert Valérie Biot Jean-Michel Decroly GEPHYRES / IGEAT Phillipe Doucet RKKIvan Illes Katalin Süle S&WMichael Wegener Klaus Speakermann ESPON CU Sara Ferrara Marjan van Herwijnen Sounding Board Patrick Salez Karl Peter Schon

9. ET2050 Objective Supporting policy makers in formulating a VISION, long-term integrated and coherent, for the (smart, sustainable and inclusive) development of the EU territory up to 2050.

10. ET2050 Methodology Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)

11. Politically-driven: Participatory Activities • ET2050 will follow a Participatory approach mostly aiming to support • policy makers to develop the common VISION • Workshops for policy-analysts/makers and experts • Personal interviews and small consultation/focus groups • Online surveys and interaction

12. Scientifically driven: ET2050 Five-Steps • Step 1: Present State of the European territory • Step 2: 2030 and 2050 Baseline Scenarios • Step 3: 2050 Territorial Extreme Scenarios • Step 4:Supporting Policy-makers to develop the2050 VISION • Step 5: 2030 Midterm Targets and Pathways

13. ET2050 Work plan

16. Definition of criteria to evaluate policy-aims • Definition of relative weights (in the ESPON MC frame) • Identification of scientifically sound indicators to measure the criteria (to be calculated with outputs produced by forecast and foresight models) • Evaluation of the scenarios, and based on the evaluation adjustment of the scenarios • Evaluation of the VISION, and based on the evaluation refinement

17. Present State (1)

18. Present State: transnational strategic reports (1) (To support policy-makers) the expert “catalytic” approach will be based on:

19. Present State: future-oriented reports for sectors (1)

20. Baseline Scenario (2)

21. Example of 2050 Baseline: TV+ (Transvisions, DGMOVE, 2008) Baseline Business as Usual Scenario

22. Extreme Scenarios (3)

23. Extreme Scenarios (3)

24. According to Project Specifications: This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within main corridors. Europe of the Flows is characterised by strong connections between cities and transport nodes that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as enhancing connections and long distance networks and global integration ex. Flows? SPSP / Infographic Group United Kingdom view by Alessandro Augiri

25. According to Project Specifications: This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within existing cities; cities that have a role as driving forces in the global, national and/or regional level. Europe of the Cities is characterised by economically strong and compact cities that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as intensified use of urban space, strong preservation of open space, reduction of long-distance traffic ex. Cities? SPSP / Infographic Group Netherlands // Paul van Hemert

26. According to Project Specifications: This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments mainly take place on the basis of specific regional identities and strengths. Europe of the Regions is characterised by strong urban and rural territories that form a mosaic of different regions and types of territories with strong identities. Political focus lies on issues such as regional self-reliance, small-scale development and landscape protection. ex. Regions?

27. Initial Assessment:Opinions of the ET2050 experts

28. European Territorial VISION 2050 (4) A scenario describes what will possibly happen under certain preconditions. ET2050. The prospective scenarios should define a realistic playing-field for the Territorial VISION. And the VISION must help to define policy-relevant scenarios.

29. European Territorial VISION 2050 (4) The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic (no linear neither sequential) allowing the ESPON Monitoring Committee to take active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios Scientifically-driven VISION Scenarios Politically-driven

30. The European Territorial VISION 2050 and the scenarios

31. The VISION for 2050 From the Project Specifications: The VISION should provide a coherent framework to formulate territorial policy actions at different policymaking levels and to assess and support policy initiatives from other sectors, all with a European perspective. The VISION is expected to have a strategic character that allows giving direction to the policy debate on territorial development. This project aims at supporting policymakers in formulating this long-term integrated and coherent vision on the development of the European territory A VISION is a dream of a future “ideal Europe”

32. The VISION for 2050 • The European Territorial VISION could include three components: • A set of commonly agreed general territorial objectives and principles, with quantified goals. • A series of (non‐binding) policy and governance recommendations likely to make the realisation of the VISION possible • A series of schematic maps of the European territory displaying strategic, structuring elements

33. Example of strategic maps:Keeble Economic Potential & Blue Bannane (1980s)

35. Example of strategic maps:Europe 2000 + (late 1980s, DGXVI, EC)

36. Example of strategic maps:Europe 2000 + (late 1980s, DGXVI, EC)

40. Example of strategic maps:ESPON3.2 (mid 2000s, ESPON)

42. Mid targets and Pathways (6) Sensible midterm targets (2030) that need to be met in order to guarantee that the European territory sufficiently develops into the direction of the TerritorialVISION. Targets will be realistic but ambitious, address different levels of geographical scale, and types of territories and regions.

43. “Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”