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Change in the Middle East

Change in the Middle East. Tunesië-Egypte het begin van een dominorevolutie? . End ‘dictatorships of sultans’?. Divided region. Common: dictatorships, weak opposition. Regimes lack ideology or vision.. Real independence traded for support of the West.

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Change in the Middle East

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  1. Change in the Middle East Tunesië-Egypte het begin van een dominorevolutie?

  2. End ‘dictatorships of sultans’? • Divided region. • Common: dictatorships, weak opposition. • Regimes lack ideology or vision.. • Real independence traded for support of the West. • History! After colonization, transition to authoritarian states. • Power of the people. • Humiliation versus dignity. • Defeated generation (post ’67). • Myth of passivity overcome.

  3. Stability versus dictatorships • West: geo-strategic interests. • Lip service to democracy: • Attitude versus Saudi-Arabia. • Human rights clause in agreements. • Lower standard for democracy in region. • Fear of political Islam. • Dictators played into this.

  4. No social activism? • Region immune for change? • Police states not to be confused with docility. • Eighties trade-unions against IMF. • Growth NGOs. • Yet, no change. • Autoritharian corporatism. • Social pact with state.

  5. Revolutions or protests? • Jasmine revolution: start. • Results too early to judge. • Socio-economic factors: • Unemployment, demography. • Growth without redistribution. • Informal economy, corruption. . • Trigger: political reform. • End political exclusion. • Protest not predominantly nationalistic or religious.

  6. Egypt • Military Council leads transition. • Pushed reform constitution. • Interest in democratization? • Strong ties with business elite. • Weak opposition. • Lead: former NDP and MB. • Strong labor movement, no impact. • Post-Islamic revolution? • MB strengthened. • Sectarian violence. • Divide power with Islamists.

  7. Egypt • Pivotal role in the region. • Mediation Hamas-Fatah. • Stance towards Iran. • Khamisi: Revolution has just begun. • Need to complete the revolution. • Elections September. • Economic model: continuation neoliberal model?

  8. Old and new powers • Israel prefers status quo. • Peace agreement with Egypt? • Previous regimes predictable. • Role Turkey more pronounced • More defiant: Gaza, Syria. • Example Islamic democracy. • Iran: breaking its isolation? • Confrontation Saudi-Arabia. • Saudi-Arabia: • Prevents change. Contra-revolution? • Different stance international community?

  9. Challenges • Result transition in Egypt and Tunisia? • Revolution not finished. • Conservative forces. • Socio-economic problems. • Regime Kadhafi and evolution military intervention. • New geopolitical situation necessitates other policy US and EU. • Position towards Islamists. • Human rights and conditionality? • Political and socio-economic reforms. • Immigration.

  10. More information • Websites: • Media: The Guardian and BBC. • Blog: The Arabist. • Books: • The great war for civilization, Robert Fisk. • The Arabs, Eugene Rogan. • What’s really wrong with the Middle East, Brian Whitacker.

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