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2. The influence of dispersal & seasonality on lynx dynamics in W. Canada Click here for audio Gabriela Yates & Mark Boyce University of Alberta

3. Hudson’s Bay Co. Fur Trading Records & MacLulich 1937

4. Cycle breakdown- localized areas • Lynx harvest in northern Alberta (Wood Buffalo Nat. Park) compared to Nordegg, Alberta site (Central Eastern Slopes). Boyce et al. 2005. Biological Conservation 126: 395. Mullen. 2006. M.S. Thesis, University of Alberta.

5. Cycle breakdown- provincial scale Results of spectral analysis of lynx population timeseries from harvest data AB & BC have significant cycles at a provincial scale Murray et al. In press. Journal of Wildlife Management.

6. Cycle breakdown- provincial scale Results of spectral analysis of lynx population timeseries from harvest data Border States do NOT have significant cycles Murray et al. In press. Journal of Wildlife Management.

7. Biological mechanismsaffecting southern cycles • Predator dispersal • Pulse from epicenter (Ranta et al. 1997) • Southern prey densities too low to support cyclic dynamics (Steury & Murray 2004) • Population sink • Immigration pulse from the core (McKelvey et al. 2000) • Hypotheses 1: Southern dynamics & persistence dependent on dispersal

8. Biological mechanismsaffecting southern cycles • Climate - seasonality • Synchrony vs. asynchrony (Stenseth et al. 1999,2004) • NAO • East-west (provincial statistics) • Sunspot driven weather (Sinclair et al. 1993, Sinclair & Gosline 1997) • Doesn’t explain eastern asynchrony (affected by NAO) • Seasonality produces phase locking (King & Schaffer 2001) • Hypothesis 2: Weakened seasonality reduces seasonal forcing sustaining multi-year oscillator

9. Research question • Are changes in lynx dynamics related to . human induced change? • Barriers to predator dispersal • Fragmentation due to industrial/urban development • Weakened seasonality • Temperatures of the boreal increasing since 70s • Climate change may have widespread consequences

10. Research objectives • Evaluate dispersal vs. seasonal-forcing hypotheses 1. Regionally document cycle break down -North-south gradient 2. Evaluate barriers to dispersal (via gene flow) across a latitudinal gradient 3. Radiocollar lynx to estimate model of habitats -Facilitate dispersal into South 4. Examine timeseries relative to climate data to evaluate seasonal-forcing

11. Obj 1. Cycles at appropriate scale • Untangling the South • Reduced amplitude • More variable periodicities • Less synchrony • Compile harvest data • Alberta & BC • Hudson’s Bay Company Archives prior to1950 • Provincial traplines 1950 - 2006. • Aggregate appropriately • Analyze across a latitudinal gradient using time-series methods Lynx harvest by trapline 1994-1999 Poole & Mowat 2001

12. Obj 2. Genetic view of dispersal • Dispersal – gene flow • Barriers in the increasingly fragmented south • Large sample sizes • Previous work • Central & northern Alberta study ignored south (Campbell & Strobeck) • Genetic drift in BC even w/ coarse-scale testing (Schwartz et al. 2002, Rueness et al. 2003) • Differentiation in the US (Schwartz personal communication) Campbell & Strobeck 2006

13. Obj 2. Genetic view of dispersal cont. • Planned methods • 2007-08 Alberta & BC trapping seasons • Skin from pelts • Estimated n = 250 • 20 microsatellite loci effective in lynx • Analysis • Genetic subpopulations using STRUCTURE software • Isolation at individual level • Isolation by distance • Isolation by landscape resistance (see Cushman et al. 2006) • Compare with habitat use data to unravel dispersal dynamics

14. Obj 3. Habitat selection for dispersal • Radiocollar sample • Estimated n = 20 • Central Eastern Slopes Area • Southwestern Alberta along Rockies • Exposed to forestry & land use change • Collaborate for robust model • Washington sample near BC border • NWT sample near Alberta border • Analysis • Step selection function (SSF) • Identify movement barriers throughout the region • Compare with evidence of gene-flow barriers

15. Obj 4. Climate analysis • Examine seasonality metrics • 50+ years of data from weather stations • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) • Warmer winters,  precipitation,  winter rain ratio, earlier snowpack melt • Research key component(s) of seasonality • Winter (November–March) PDO index • Temperature • snow pack depth • snow water equivalent • season length • Compare reduced seasonality & deterioration of cycles

16. Significance • Explaining breakdown in cycle • Dispersal in s. populations • Seasonality hypothesized to maintain cycle • Consequences - fragmentation & climate change • Seasonality as primary driver • Show how climate change is altering population cycles • Dispersal as primary driver • Habitat/dispersal maps identifying barriers in key habitats • Model modified human use for persistent populations & habitat connections

17. Questions?Advice? Gabriela Yates Mark Boyce University of Alberta Project Website: www.ualberta.ca/~gyates/projectlynx