World Meteorological Organization

1. World Meteorological Organization New Initiative to Support the CAT Insurance and Weather Risk Management Markets By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme “WMO EXPERT MEETING ON REQUIREMENTS OF THE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE AND WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT MARKETS” Geneva, Switzerland 5-7 December 2007

2. Agenda • Brief overview of WMO • WMO Initiatives in Support of Financial Risk Transfer Markets • Expected outcomes of this meeting • Next Steps

3. Brief Overview of WMO- Specialized Scientific and Technical Agency of the United Nations Responsible for Observing, Monitoring, Detecting, Forecasting and Warnings of Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Conditions- 188 Members, Represented by the Heads of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services at the WMO Governing Bodies

4. Natural Hazards Weather, Climate and Water … Primary mandate for: Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, cold waves, droughts, volcanic ash transport, air pollution, Sand and dust storms, etc. Contributing to: Forest fires, locust swarms, health epidemics, tsunami, etc…

5. Research Side: International Coordination of Scientific Research and Assessment World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/THORPEX IPCC Northern AtlanticOscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation

6. Operational Side:Global Coordination of Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Space Agencies • Coordination of global observing networks • In situ and Satellites • National data policy and exchange issues • Standardization and protocols for information content, exchange, exchange • Observations, bulletins and forecasts • Sectoral requirements for products and services • Global Telecommunication System (GTS) • Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) • International and Regional Cooperation Projects and capacity development of NMHS

7. Global Coordination of National Observing Networks & Global Telecommunication System Coordinated Satellite Activities Global Observing System Global Telecommunication System Global Data Exchange: WMO Resolutions 40 and 25 Global Data Processing and Forecasting

8. Communication and Dissemination International & regional level: Global Telecommunication System National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Media General public Private sector Government and civil defence authorities

9. WMO’s Framework in DRMDerived fromHyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation Risk Identification and Assessment Risk Reduction (Prevention & Mitigation) Risk Transfer Sectoral planning Early Warning Systems Emergency Preparedness & Planning Education and training Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends Vulnerability assessment Risk quantification Cat Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Derivatives Information and Knowledge Sharing

10. Strong Wind Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Heavy rainfall / Flood Heatwaves Need for Prevention and Mitigation Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Energy Water Resource Management Food security Transport Intensity Industry Health Urban areas Exposure is increasing ! Hazard Frequency

11. Conclusions from 4th IPCC Assessment ReportWG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

12. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Assessment Input into probabilistic risk modeling …. • Historical and real-time hazard databases • Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies • Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts • Probabilitic climate models – Forward looking hazard trend analysis Initiation of “Hazard Programme” of NMHSs in 2008.

13. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Reduction • Input into sectoral planning • Mainstreaming hydro-meteorological risk assessment inzoning and land use planning, urban and infrastructure development, etc. • Early warning systems • Probabilistic forecasting and warnings from next hour to longer climate timescales • Integration of risk information into warning messages • Communication and dissemination • Supporting emergency preparedness and response • Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations Risk reduction through mitigation, prevention and preparedness…

14. WMO National and Regional Projects for Implementation and Strengthening of Multi-Hazard EWS • EWS Demonstration projects • France • China (Shanghai) • India • 3 countries in Central America (with World Bank and IFRC) • US/Canada transboundary • European river basin (transboundary) • Eastern Europe (with World Bank and ISDR) • Technical Capacity Development for Specific Hazards • Severe weather (Southern Africa and Pacific) • Flash flood guidance system (Central America and Southern Africa) • Sand and dust storm (Middle-East and Northern Africa) • Drought (South-East Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa)

15. WMO Initiatives in Support of Financial Risk Transfer Markets- Extremes - Deviations from Normal

16. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to Financial Risk Transfer Markets • Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis • Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement • Forecasts for management of risk portfolio • Technical support and service delivery

17. Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Large Variation in Technical Capacities of National Meteorological and and Hydrological Services … • 187 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were surveyed: • Hydro-meteorological observing networks, weather and hydrological stations, satellite receiving platforms • Forecasting of extremes and deviations from the mean • Their capacities to deliver products and services to support disaster risk reduction • Categorization of capacities (low, medium, high)

18. Countries Participating in the Country-Level DRR Survey 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded Least developed countries: 25/50 50 % Developing countries: 85/137 54 %

19. Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Exchange & Forecasting Capacities GLOBAL

20. At National Level Many Challenges Remain • Lack of political recognition of benefits of investing in observing networks, data management systems, Data Rescue Programmes, etc. • Institutional capacity • Operations and sustainability of observing networks • Data collection and management systems • Data rescue to translate paper-based records into digital records • Quality control to ensure consistency and completeness • Capacity to archieve large databases • Availability of data to users Development of these capacities should be considered as an investment for enhanced risk management and economic development.

21. First Step: Identification of Requirements of CAT Insurance and Weather Risk Management Markets • Expert Meeting on Dec 5-7, 2007 at WMO Headquarters • WB, WRMA, WFP, Reinsurance Sectors, • National Meteorological Services and climate research community (Canada, USA, Brazil, India, China, Morocco, Ethiopia, Malawi, Finland, France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand) • Expected Outcomes: • Role of NMHS in supporting Financial risk transfer markets (NMHS as information provides) • Documentation of concrete requirements of these markets • Prioritization and joint planning for the development of national projects

22. 2008 onwards: Facilitation of Products and Services at national level • Guidelines for standardized data and forecast products • Work with partners on country-specific cases • Facilitation of networking with NMHSand Space agencies • Training of NMHS • Development of standard indices (WMO technical commissions) • Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations) • Modernization of observing networks, Data Rescue Programmes and capacity development of NMHS (in cooperation with World Bank and other International Development Agencies) • Raise political awareness on benefits of (with private and public partners) • Development and sustainability of observing networks and data management systems • Open data policy issues

23. New Book: “Managing Weather and Climate Risks Through Financial Risk Transfer Markets” (to be Released in 2008)Planning Details Will be Released Week After the Expert Meeting

24. Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/