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Marine and Coast in a Changing Climate

Marine and Coast in a Changing Climate. Climate Adaptation. Elvira S Poloczanska Alistair J Hobday Anthony J Richardson Aug 2008. Outline. Value of marine and coast Climate change and marine ecosystems Vulnerability analysis Adaptation – focus on aquaculture.

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Marine and Coast in a Changing Climate

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  1. Marine and Coast in a Changing Climate Climate Adaptation Elvira S Poloczanska Alistair J Hobday Anthony J Richardson Aug 2008

  2. Outline • Value of marine and coast • Climate change and marine ecosystems • Vulnerability analysis • Adaptation – focus on aquaculture Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  3. Annual Value of Marine and Coastal Systems to Australia Recreational (global) value of GBR ~ A$846 million to A$1.9 billion (Carr and Mendelson 2003 Ambio) Economic values (Blackwell 2005): Open ocean A$ 464.7 billion Seagrass/algal beds A$ 175.1 million Coral reefs A$ 53.5 billion Shelf system A$ 579.9 billion Tidal marsh/mangroves A$ 39.1 billion Gross domestic product A$ 52 billion Fisheries and aquaculture A$ 2.12 billion (ABARE 2007) Ecosystem services product of Australian coastal ecosystems (Martinez et al 2007 Ecol. Econ.): Terrestrial A$ 10.8 billion Marine A$ 26.7 billion Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  4. Bringing Climate Change to the Fore 2006 • Stern Report • Inconvenient Truth • Drought (Hurricane Katrina) 2007 • IPCC 4th assessment report • Nobel Peace Prize

  5. Rainfall Projections (A1F1) Winter Summer 2030 2070

  6. Temperature Projections (A1F1) Winter Summer 2030 2070

  7. Past and future: temperature IPCC 2007

  8. Year 2007 385 ppm CO2 & Temperature (420,000 Years) Vostok Ice Core Data 400 350 300 Glaciations AtmosphericpCO2 , atm. 250 Deglaciations 200 150 -10 -5 0 5 IGBP 2000 Deuterium-based Temperature Anomalies, °C Courtesy David Ugalde, DCC

  9. Recent Surface Temperature Observations IPCC 2007

  10. Warming Hotspot Fastest warming in SH? Trend in Sea Surface Temperature: 1944-2005 • It’s not getting hotter everywhere…. Ridgway 2007

  11. Climate change means non-stationarity • We will be in “new water” compared with historical patterns Temperature °C • Summer SST (Jan-Mar) • 350 km movement Hill et al (2008) Salinity

  12. Get prepared for a changed future…

  13. The future is uncertain SST 2070s 9 different models

  14. Climate Change Impacts on the Ocean Poloczanska et al 2007

  15. Impact on marine systems • The biological attributes of exploited species and ecosystems that will likely be affected by climate change fall into four categories (i) phenology and physiology, (ii) range and distribution, (iii) composition and interactions within communities, (iv) structure and dynamics of communities.

  16. Terrestrial 764 28586 90% 94% Marine and Freshwater 1 85 99% 100% IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007 Figure SM-1.4. Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature used in chapter synthesis assessment in Section 1.4. At the global scale TER = Terrestrial; MFW = Marine and Freshwater, and GLO = Global.

  17. Marine systems inaccessible Satellites observe surface Few amateur naturalists Springwatch Survey (UK) in 2007: 24,453 obs Garden bird counts (UK) in 2007: >400,000 people Birds In Backyards survey (Australia) in 2006/07: 987 surveys Why? Reduced Observing Capacity Great Barrier Reef Snowdrop first flowering observations 2008: Springwatch Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science

  18. Why? • Distribution of global science funding (<11% marine) • Disentangling multiple stressors from poorly sampled systems • The way marine ecologists report findings • Limitations in the IPCC process • 4 out of 43 WG II authors “marine” • Guidelines for inclusion prejudice marine time series… Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  19. Climate Change and Marine Ecosystems: Overlooked • IPCC criteria: 20 years data minimum, end 1990 or later Funding crisis 1980s: 40% of European marine time series terminated Duarte et al. (1992) Nature Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  20. Marine Biota: Canaries of Climate Change • Distribution • Land:6.1 km per decadepoleward • Marine: 100s of kms per decade for phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish and intertidal fauna • Connectivity important • Phenology • Land:2.3 days earlier per decade (172 taxa) • Marine: ~8 days earlier per decade in plankton, marine turtles, and seabirds • Mismatch and energy flow Richardson & Poloczanska (2008) Science; Richardson (2008) ICES J Mar Sci Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  21. In Hot Water: Marine Systems • Temperature: proxy & driver for ecosystem state Ecosystem state High N Low N cold, well mixed, turbulent diatoms and large copepods new production high short, efficient food web support higher trophic levels warm, stratified, stable flagellates and gelatinous zooplankton recycled nitrogen long, inefficient food web few higher trophic levels • Land: no direct link between T, nutrients & state Richardson (in press) ICES J Mar Sci

  22. Human Impacts on the World’s Oceans Halpern et al. 2008 Science

  23. Human Impacts on the World’s Oceans <200m globally Halpern et al. (2008) Science

  24. Exposure (E) Sensitivity (S) Potential impact Adaptive capacity (AC) Vulnerability Case Study 1: Vulnerability Index (Allen Report 2005) Vulnerability: Potential to be damaged, altered or to resist change ‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change’ (IPCC 2001)

  25. MEoW Regionalisation (WWF)

  26. Estimating Vulnerability – Adaptive Capacity Dimension

  27. Estimating Vulnerability – Exposure (Climate Change) Dimension

  28. Climate Change Dimension A1B A2 2030 2060

  29. Estimating Vulnerability – Sensitivity Dimension

  30. Vulnerability 2035 2065 Western Bassian South Australian Gulfs Great Australian Bight

  31. Responding to climate change Two points of action: mitigation (addressing the cause) and adaptation (planned response to the changes) Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks Adaptation involves adjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional structures. Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  32. Climate Impacts and Adaptation Science BIOLOGY Reviews Desk-top studies Discovery science Socio-economic Experiments Models Detection Impacts (Attribution) Observations Model scenarios Evaluation Adaptation (strategies) Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  33. Recent Reviews – Biological Hobday, A., Poloczanska, E., Matear, R., Preston, N., Okey, T. A., Thresher, R., Klaer, N., Lyne, V., Bax, N., Rintoul, S. Caputi, N. Young, J. Leaper, R. Hobday A.J., Okey T.A., Poloczanska E.S., Kunz T.J. & Richardson A.J. (eds.) 2007. Impacts of Climate Change on Australian Marine Life. Hobday A.J., E. Poloczanska, R. Matear (eds.) 2008. Review of Climate Impacts on Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture Voice et al (2006). Vulnerability to climate change of Australia’s coastal zone Marine Ecosystems under Threat

  34. Climate Change Impacts on Aquaculture Do we have the management structure to take opportunities and reduce impact?

  35. Climate impacts on aquaculture • Physical environment changes • Winds => increase (site selection?) • Temperature => increase (species selection?) • Rainfall => decrease?? (runoff impacts) • Biological relationships for (sea) farmed species (systems) • Algal blooms – temperature and stratification • Pathogens – temperature • Economic impacts • Fuel costs (cost) • Increased demand for farmed species (benefit) • Fish meal demand and price (cost?) • Biofouling – (cost) • Challenges for future prediction: mismatch of scales • Spatial scales: large for physical predictions and offshore • Temporal scales: short for biological time series

  36. Adaptation is crucial Aquaculture is “ahead” with regard to planning Adaptation a standard business practice (genetic improvement)

  37. Key Points: Climate Change and Fisheries and Aquaculture • Understanding climate impacts on fisheries • Studies of climate variability lead to understanding about climate change impacts. • Paleo-ecology studies can shed light on past response to climate fluctuation • Fisheries will be impacted differently according to the physical changes in the regional environment and species characteristics • A number of stocks are over-exploited; the additional impact of climate change is of concern to future sustainability. • Increased temperatures at the southern end of species’ ranges leaves little room for further southward migration, thus fishers will likely be affected. • Socio-economic Impacts • Aquaculture industries have considerable adaptation potential via selective breeding, regulating the environment, and new species opportunities • Wild fisheries will see increased opportunity where warmer-water species move southward or increase • For southern fisheries, reconciling non-climate threats with increasing temperature will require proactive management. • Management structures and policies that account for climate change will allow most flexibility in adapting to future patterns.

  38. Key questions for fisheries and aquaculture • Will my species be impacted? • How, positive/negative? • Will there be new opportunities? • Species, markets, social? • Is my business adaptable to CC? • Clients, seasons, processing, transport • Is management policy compatible with CC? • Spatial management and allocation of rights to area and species?

  39. Rational options Appealing options Efficient options Choices: Informed, efficient, pragmatic Hobday, Marshall, Marshall

  40. Rational options Appealing options Efficient options Choices: Informed, efficient, pragmatic with climate change, a change in the space Hobday, Marshall, Marshall

  41. Alistair Hobday Phone: +61 3 Email:alistair.hobday@csiro.au Anthony Richardson Phone: +61 3 Email:anthony.richardson@csiro.au Elvira Poloczanska Phone: +61 3 6232 5141 Email: elvira.poloczanska@csiro.au Climate Adaptation Flagship Climate Impacts Group http://www.cmar.csiro.au/climateimpacts/ Thank you Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

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