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Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications

Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications. Tom Hopson. Outline. Thorpex -Tigge data set Ensemble forecast examples: a) Southwestern African flooding. THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble . TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

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Ensemble Forecasting: Thorpex-Tigge and use in Applications

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  1. Ensemble Forecasting:Thorpex-Tiggeand use in Applications Tom Hopson

  2. Outline • Thorpex-Tigge data set • Ensemble forecast examples: • a) Southwestern African flooding

  3. THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble • TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble • component of the World Weather Research Programme • TIGGE archive consists of ensemble forecast data from ten global NWP centers • designed to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. • starting from October 2006 • available for scientific research • near-real time forecasts (some centers delayed)

  4. Archive Status and Monitoring, Data Receipt UKMO CMC CMA ECMWF MeteoFrance NCAR NCEP JMA KMA NCDC IDD/LDM HTTP FTP Archive Centre CPTEC Current Data Provider BoM Unidata IDD/LDM Internet Data Distribution / Local Data Manager Commodity internet application to send and receive data

  5. Archive Status and Monitoring, Variability between providers

  6. Archive Status and Monitoring, Archive Completeness PL = Pressure Level, PT = 320K θ Level, PV = ± 2 Potential Vorticity Level, SL = Single/Surface Level

  7. Archive Status and Monitoring, Archive Completeness PL = Pressure Level, PT = 320KθLevel, PV = ± 2 Potential Vorticity Level, SL = Single/Surface Level

  8. Outline • Motivation for ensemble forecasting and post-processing • Introduce Quantile Regression (QR; Kroenker and Bassett, 1978)post-processing procedure • Ensemble forecast verification • Thorpex-Tigge data set • Ensemble forecast examples: • a) Southwestern African flooding • b) African meningitis • c) US Army test range weather forecasting • d) Bangladesh flood forecasting

  9. Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa

  10. Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … ECMWF 24hr precip

  11. Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … NCEP GEFS 24hr precip

  12. Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … ECMWF 5-day precip

  13. Early May 2011, floods in southwestern Africa -- examine ens forecasts … NCEP GEFS 5day precip

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