Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department WIS Common Alerting Protocol Implementation Workshop Geneva 6-7 April 2011

2. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” • Eugenia Kalnay (2003) • From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

3. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries(Cg-XV, 2007) “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” WMO Strategic Thrusts • Improved Service Quality and Service Delivery • Improved delivery and access to high quality weather, water, related environmental predictions, information, and services • Reduced risks and potential impacts of hazards • Strengthening Capacity Building

4. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO SWFDP Main Goals • Improve Severe Weather Forecasting • Improve lead-time of warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users, including media, disaster management and civil protection authorities, and user communities in the various socio-economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, etc.) SWFDP provides a practical and beneficial platform for preparation and dissemination of multi-hazard, early warnings SWFDP Regional Subprojects • Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria) • South Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington) • Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries; possible start-up 2011) • Eastern Africa (in development, 6 countries; possible start-up 2011) • Several others being considered

5. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process Disaster Management Centres Global Centers RSMC Pretoria NMCs Global NWPcentres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; National Met. Centres maintain responsibility/authority over national warning services, issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; liaise with Disaster Management, and contribute feedback and evaluation of the project 5

6. SWFDP – Southern Africa (in progress) • 16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, • Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF Since 2006 6

7. Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress) WMO • Project develop in progress • Focus on: • Strong winds • Heavy precipitation • Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) • Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries • Domains: (TBC) • 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) • 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) • Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) • Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD • National Met. Centres:Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia • Possible start-up 2011

8. Proposed SWFDP – Southeast Asia WMO SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress • Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf) • Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell) • Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E • Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material) • Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) • National Met. Centres:Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam • Possible start-up 2011

9. PWS SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Radio; TV E-mail; etc. Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products Media National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) Global Centres Regional Centre Guidance Products (risk/probability) Disaster Management and Civil Protection RSMCs-TC Specific Communication Systems TC GDPFS Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) main components

10. Public Weather Services SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Radio; TV E-mail; etc. Media Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) in the SWFDP context SWFDP is helping WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting to support multi-hazard warning services with improved content (including reliability, lead-time) Within the generic framework and activities of SWFDP, CAP fits in the "dissemination" part This could include regional parts as well a national parts Should become CAP-enabled

11. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. Flash Flood Guidance HWR PWS General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) Specific Comm. Systems Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) Global Centres Regional Centre Guidance Products (risk/probability) RSMCs-TC TC GDPFS WMO SP WWRP Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems Satellite Imagery and Tools Research Projects SWFDP links and synergies SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Radio; TV E-mail; etc. Media Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems

12. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings • Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS) • High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves), and applications (e.g. AgMet) • Forecast Verification • Warning Services (e.g. alerting technologies, exchange) • Phase in other developments • Forecasting gaps: • Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events • Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) • Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations

13. SWFDP – paving the way for the future “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in … detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; … “… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;” … Tell us how to fish Show us how to fish Fish with us - Eugenia Kalnay (2009)

14. SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services Thank you! Peter Chen pchen@wmo.int Alice Soares asoares@wmo.int Haleh Kootval hkootval@wmo.int