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Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks

This summary discusses Mexico's recent efforts to study migration through the use of different sources such as the ENOE survey and administrative data. It highlights the use of these sources to measure migration flows and stocks and provides numerical results and trends. The article also discusses the age and sex structure of international migrants in Mexico and the use of ACS and birth certificate data to estimate the Mexico-born population residing in the USA.

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Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks

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  1. Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex) Joint UNECE/EurostatWorkSessiononMigrationStatistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

  2. Summary • Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration. • Flows • From 2006, quarterly LFS has been used to follow changes in household composition, specially via migration. • Arrivals or departures of dwellers over 3-months are recorded. • Quarterly birth-, death-and migration-rates produced. • Stocks • For emigrants, look at administrative “paper trail” in destination countries. • Example, NCHS information regarding the mother’s place of birth. • Combine with ACS’ birth-rates and age-sex structures for the Mexico-born population residing in the USA to obtain estimate for that population size. • On-going work that could be used in other regions.

  3. Layout • Flows: ENOE, Mexico’s quarterly labour force survey • Stocks: ACS plus Birth Certificate data

  4. Flows: ENOE, Mexico'sQuarterlyLabourForceSurvey

  5. ENOE One of thelongest-runningstatisticalprojects in the country. • Mainpurpose, to produce national and state-levelquarterlyunemploymentrates. • Informationcollectedcontinuouslyoverthree-monthperiods. • Samplesizefixed at 120,060dwellingseveryquarter. • New entries are randomlyselectedwithunequalprobabilitiesfromstratifiedsamplingframe.

  6. Rotation pattern • Eachquarter, 20% of householdsleavesampleaftercompletingfive-interview tour, • replacedby new (semi-)panel withsamesize, • remains in sampleforfiveconsecutive rounds of interviews, onequarterapart. • Hence, 80% quarter-to-quartersampleoverlap. • Useful in determiningquarterlychangepatterns in • householdcomposition, • occupational status of individuals, • etc.

  7. Rotation Pattern Common sample in two successive quarters due to ENOE's Rotation Pattern

  8. InformationCollected

  9. MonitoringHouseholdComposition Interested in learningaboutpeoplewho: • are no longerpart of thehouseholdbecause of • deathor • emigration, or • join as new members of thehouseholdbyreason of • birthor • immigration.

  10. New Panel's First Interview In addition to job data, initial roster of individuals in each household is developed. Recording, among other socio-demographic variables, • place of birth, • age, • sex, • relationship to head of household, • educational characteristics (for human-capital studies), http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/hogares/regulares/enoe/default.aspx?\&\_s=est\&\_c=14731

  11. Subsequent Interviews Informationforimmigrantsincludes • Former place of residence (stateor country), • socio-demographiccharacteristics, • reasonsformigrating: • workorstudy, • marriageordivorce, • healthreasons, • joiningthefamilygroup, • environmental • violence, criminal or social.

  12. Subsequent Interviews Information for emigrants includes • Place of destination (state or country), • reasons for migrating • work or study, • marriage or divorce, • health reasons, • joining the family group, • violence, criminal or social.

  13. Consequences of RotationPattern

  14. Expansion factors Must take into account: • Changes in population size. • Expand to 80% of population size, at best. • Differential non-response.

  15. Consequences for Immigration • Estimates total number of immigrantsreceivedbyhouseholdsoveronequarter. • In otherwords, households are considered "at risk" of receivingoneor more migrants. • Use expansionfactorsforhouseholds • Immigrationshownrelativetopopulationsize.

  16. NumericalResults

  17. Quarterly Net Migration Rates in Mexico, 2006-2012. 2006-II 2006-IV 2007-II 2007-IV 2008-II 2008-IV 2009-II 2009-IV 2010-II 2010-IV 2011-II 2011-IV 2012-II http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/muestra3.asp?tema=22&s=inegi&c=279

  18. Year-over-Year Job Growth in Metropolitan Areas, USA, 2001-2011 (Natural Resources, Mining, Construction) Source: http://www.pittsburghtoday.org/view_economy_job_growth_years_change.html, Aug. 3rd, 2011.

  19. Results. • Decliningtrend in thenumber of outmigrantsfrom 2006 • Burst of thehousingbubble in the US? • Stablesituationforimmigration, includesreturnmigrants. • Distinctseasonalpatternexhibitedbybothout- and in-migrantsoverthesameperiod • Vanishestowardtheend. Multiplicativeseasonality?

  20. Age and Sex Structure

  21. Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2009. • Low frequency of inter-state migration difficults production of reliable estimates for greater geographical disaggregation. • Age and sex characteristics of the migrant population, stable. • When records over the 2006-2009 period are pooled, age-sex structures may be produced. • Recent Mexican emigration is predominantly male and occurs mainly at working ages.

  22. Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2011.

  23. Stocks: acs plus birthcertificate data

  24. US Census: Stand up and be counted? By Laura Trevelyan BBC News, New York 2010 is census year in America - and there is a lot riding on this drive to count everyone in the country. Some $400bn (£251bn) of federal money is allocated according to the population in each of the 50 states, and so are Congressional seats. “ If you want better services, allow yourself to be counted, I am guaranteeing that nothing bad will happen to you ” Ruben Diaz Jr, Bronx Borough president “ I now how afraid the people are, they are hiding, and they believe the police force is looking for them ” Carlos Soto

  25. Sources • PopulationCensuses • Populationprojections • Expansionfactors • Surveys • Public data • Births • Schoolattendance • Health • Etc.

  26. Total births in USA, 1990-2006 Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006

  27. Births in the USA, 1997-2006 Note: 2005-2006 births to México-born women estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1997-2006

  28. Births to Mexico-born women Note: 2005-2006 values were estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006

  29. Mexico-bornfertility in theUnitedStates, avge. 2005-2007 Source • Gregg Robinson, Privatecommunication: USBC, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates, American CommunitySurvey (ACS), GeographicArea: UnitedStates, Country of Birth: Mexico • Ownfrom NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006 • 2004 value (*) Birthcertificate data notcorrectedformultiplebirths

  30. Mexico-bornfertility in theUnitedStates, avge. 2005-2007 Source: • Data Ferret, USBC, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates, American CommunitySurvey (ACS), GeographicArea: UnitedStates, Country of Birth: Mexico • Ownfrom NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006 • 2004 value (*) Birthcertificate data notcorrectedformultiplebirths

  31. Data deficiencies Necessary assumptions: • Birth data-bases for 2005-2006 did not include the mother’s place of birth. • Birth-rates or sex-age structures of the Mexico-born population did not change much over a short period. I used the assumption about birth-rates. • Estimate the 2004 population, not available for ACS in the Data Ferret on-line tool. • Timing is not equal. • Birth rates from question to women about births in past 12 months (from July 1 of survey year). • NCHS births are for a calendar year (January - December). • Numbers refer to same concept • ACS numbers refer to women while NCHS ones to children. Allow for multiple births. • Some Mexican migrants do not respond to the census and/or the ACS, but still bear children. • Are they similar to the rest in this respect? or is there a bias? • There is life after censuses and surveys.

  32. 1st. Rough PreliminaryResults(DO NOT QUOTE) • Source: • Owncalculationsbasedon NCHS birthcertificate data-bases, 2004 • Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates • Owncalculations, as shown.

  33. ACS Fertility

  34. Source: • Owncalculationsbasedon NCHS birthcertificate data-bases, 2004 • Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates • Owncalculations, as shown.

  35. 2nd. Rough PreliminaryResults(DO NOT QUOTE) • Source: • Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004 • Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates • Own calculations, as shown.

  36. Net International MigrationforMexico

  37. Closing • Use of LFS and of administrative records in study of Mexico international migration discussed. • Rotation factor of Mexican LFS useful in determining changes in household composition, specifically by way of migration. • Use of birth data suggested in the study of migration if migration records unavailable (i.e., undocumented migration or integration process as in Europe). • Use of other administrative data worth looking into. • The proposal put forward may be of interest to countries in the region in view of the availability of adequate administrative records.

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