Astroid Observation – Resources and Partnering

1. Astroid Observation – Resources and Partnering Information Theoretic, Statistical Data Miningfor AstroidThreatIdentification/Characterization Eikenberry-UFAstro & Lindgren-EL 9/30/2013

2. CHALLENGES & COLLABORATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING APPROACH • Observational data sets have vast and growing quantities of information on asteroids, • Data for any given asteroid are oftenincompleteor inconclusively matched to the asteroid identification, • We can combine our skill sets to provide tools that help exploit the richness of these data sets.

3. WHAT WE AND THESE TOOLS CAN DO • Provide probabilistic models to help classify the asteroid properties, predict their orbital elements from partial data, and to validate their threat likelihood of earth impacts. • Provide tools for better coping with error and uncertainty in incoming and archival data bases. For example:

4. EXAMPLES WHAT THESE TOOLS DO • Missing Data ‐ Filling the Gaps with Probabilistic Estimates. Algorithms finds gaps and fills them based on cases where items are not missing. Does careful science based gap fill, tracks and reports changes. • Data Distributions. Over a hundred of non‐normally distributed, algorithms/programs for parameter estimating & computing probabilities. • Multivariate Probabilities and Uncertainties. Multivariate/information theoretic methodology able to handle nonlinearities in big data for modeling and rapidly estimating/finding rare outcomes

5. WE ARE NOW ACTIVELY FOSTERING • Collaboration between academic scientists specializing in astronomical studies of asteroids observation, classification, and orbital/dynamical modeling, in the US and abroad, with • Multidisciplinary Entropy Limited specialists, and • Multidisciplinary professionals at public and private research centers, and laboratories, including NASA centers and relevant USG academic affiliates FFRDc.

6. OUR DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND SOME NEXT STEPS • We are searching and finding many professionals and organizations that share our passion and have relevant tools. • Our work to help build a focused network and true collaboration includes carrying out survey and bibliographic research, producing workshops, and develop joint projects with partners. • The following slides list NASA and USG university resources, as well as FFRDCs of NASA plus NSF, DOE, DOD, DHS and the White House

7. RELEVANT MISSIONS • NASA Asteroid Redirect Initiative • NASA Wise, and Neo Wise Missions • NASA Kepler 4 wheel mission • NASA Kepler 2 wheel mission NEO options • AND OTHERs NASA/DOE/NSF/USAF/INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS UNDERWAY AND PLANNED

8. UARC* RESOURCESUniversity Affiliated Research Centers • UARC partner/sponsors USG agencies include NASA, NSF, DOD and others - with focus on aerospace, physics, astronomy engineering, security, IT, etc. • NASA Ames UARC-University of California System/UCSC and 501c3 Institutes including SETI Institute and BARI Institute -Bay Area Environmental Research Institute and others. • UARCs include Univ. Arizona, CalTech, Johns Hopkins Univ., Univ. Hawaii, Univ. Washington and others

9. FFRDC RESOURCES – NSF • NSF-UCAR-NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research • NSF AUR/NOAO - National Optical Astronomy Observatories, AZ (and science collaborator /partner in the LSST) • NSF AUI,NRAO-National Radio Astronomy Observatory • NSF-SRI/Arecibo -NAIC-National Astronomy & Ionosphere Center, VA/Arecibo PR

10. FFRDC RESOURCES - DOE • DOE: DOE-FIRMILAB- Fermi National Accelerator Lab/ Observatory • DOE-ANL-Argonne National Lab, • DOE-UC-LBNL-Lawrence Berkeley Nat. Lab • DOE-UC/LLNS-LLNL-Lawrence Livermore National Lab • DOE-UC/LAMS-LANL-Los Alamos National Lab • DOE-Stanford Univ-SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (a science collaborator and partner in the NSF-DOE sponsored LSST-LargeSynopticSurveyTelescopealongwith NOAO, UW, UC, NCSA, IPAC/CalTech, and • others).

11. FFRDC RESOURCES - DOD • DOD-OSD-USAF-AC Aerospace Corporation • DOD-OSD/USAF-MIT-MIT Lincoln Laboratory • DOD-OSD-NDRI/RAND National Def. Res. Inst • DOD-OSD-US Army. Arroyo/RAND • DOD-OSD-MITRE-NSEC-Nat. Sec. Eng. Center • DOD-CMU-SEI-Software Engineering Institute • DOD-Lockheed-SNL-Sandia National Lab. • DOD-IDA-SAC-Inst. Defense Analysis- Studies AC

12. FFRDC RESOURCES - DHS - EOP • DHS: DHS-SS&T-Analytic Services, Inc-HSSAI-Homeland Security Studies & Analysis Institute • DHS-SS&T-MITRE/HSSED-Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute, VA • White House-EOP-OSTP/NSF-IDA STPI. Science and Technology Policy Institute

13. VA* RESOURCES-OPPORTUNITIESVirtual Astronomy • We have identified a number of exciting ‘virtual astronomy’ projects and workers around the world who are makingnew NEO discoveries and improved NEO characterizations from • NEO observational data and from digging through massive cataloged image databases. • We look forward to working these pioneers to help make their work more efficient and effective

14. COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT STAGES • Survey, develop collaboration consensus, & proposals. • Develop real world asteroid observational data sets for testing • Find and select best of breed existing tool sets to test • Develop next generation collaborative tool test • design, building and objectively test. Feasibility. Product. • Educate. Try out. Obtain and digest critical feedback. • Publication in relevant peer reviewed professional journals. • Follow up / next steps. Est time: 24 – 36 months.

15. CONTACTS Prof. Steve Eikenberry, Univ. Florida Astronomy Web: www.ufl.edu. Email: eikenberry@astro.ufl.edu and Coordinator  Veronica Donoso <hipatia@astro.ufl.edu> Dr Ron Christensen / Dr Orley Lindgren Entropy Limited, Web: www.entropylimited.com Email: rchristensen@entropylimited.com Email: olindgren@entropylimited