The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates How Do We Make Sense of it All? Patrick J. Kell

1. The Fast-Approaching Frontier: Employment Outcomes of College Graduates How Do We Make Sense of it All? Patrick J. Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

2. Environmental Pressures • Federal Gainful Employment • Effective utilization of federal SLDS grants • College attainment/completion goals – state retention of graduates and economic returns • Increased focus on “credentials of value” – the attainment of credentials of less than two-years in length (primarily) that yield living/competitive wages • Meeting employment demand in key areas – e.g. health, education, STEM, trades • Increasing need for employment outcomes data to make the case for continued investment (state and federal policymaking environments)

3. The Data are Simple Institution Records Employment/Wage Records • Employed – record in the database (excludes self employed, military, and employed out-of-state) • Earnings • Industry of Employment • Region of Employment • Completions • Level of Award (Certificate, Associates, Bachelor’s Masters, Doctorate, Professional) • CIP Code of Award – Field of Study • Continued Enrollment Link SSN Data Available by Term Data Available Quarterly

4. Major Questions Answered • What percentage of the graduates are employed in-state – by level and type of award? • Are the graduates employed in the region in which they graduate? • What are their quarterly earnings? • What industries are the employed in? (only relevant in a few fields) • What percentage continue to enroll/persist in postsecondary education?

5. Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (United States) (Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Residents Who Earned Graduate/ Professional Degrees) STEM Health Business and Communications Employment Outcomes Metrics/ UI Data Match Psychology and Social Sciences Liberal Arts Education Age Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)

6. Most Effective Uses of the Data • State brain drain. Is the state retaining the graduates it produces? How is it changing over time? (the impact on the degree and attainment goals of the state). • State-level supply and demand. What is the employment status of graduates in key areas of demand for the state? E.g. health and STEM fields, certain trades. Don’t fall into the trap of overly detailed program-to-occupation supply and demand studies. • Regional supply and demand. Are institutions producing graduates that meet local employer needs? What are the employment status and wages of the graduates they produce? • Information for students and families. What programs provide the highest wages in the short-run? What programs are more likely to require continued education upon completion?

7. Institutional Accountability (Difficult at Best) • Small numbers of graduates for many programs • It is very difficult to calculate the “value added” by institution – i.e. the likely employment and wages of students had they not completed their college credentials • The state economy treats graduates from some institutions better than graduates from others (with the same credentials) – the “prestige” factor • Institutions serving large numbers of place-bound students are victims of their local economy (e.g. a part of the state that has low wages relative to other parts of the state) • The difficult balance between directing students into programs with competitive wages and providing student choice

8. Gates Foundation Voluntary Metrics Project • Voluntary participation of 20 institutions – represented by nearly all sectors • Pilot a few employment outcomes metrics using the match between graduate student unit records and the state unemployment insurance (UI) databases • Data Captured: Employment, continued enrollment, and wages one and five years after graduation (by level and field of study) • Documentation of the results, barriers, what the data tell us, what they don’t, and the most responsible/effective uses of the data in policy and practice

9. Context

10. Why Indiana?

11. Focus of IndianaSkills.com • Career and training opportunities associated with: • Levels of education that are greater than high school and less than a bachelor’s degree. • Typically requiring undergraduate postsecondary certificates, certifications, associates degrees.

12. Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey

13. Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level (2005-09) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

14. Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage (2010) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

15. Change in Percent of 18 to 64 Year Olds with HS Diploma or Less Living in Families not Earning Living Wage – Since 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

16. Supply Demand Information and Analysis Imposed – A “Study” Information Made Accessible – Creating an Environment for Change Employers – “I’ve been telling you this for years, we can’t find people with the skills we need” Education/Training Providers – “This is great information but you’re asking us to cut programs that generate revenue, restructure/change faculty resources, add programs that cost more to provide, and change student choice?” Policymakers – “Interesting report but the college in my district doesn’t like it” Potential Students – “I have no clue the report even exists, and wouldn’t read it if I did” Students Employers Information Providers Policymakers Access to Data and Information that Inform Users and Generates the Public Will for Change

17. Website Designed to Help: • Job seekers find career opportunities and short term training programs that best match their skills and interests, are in high demand, with competitive wages. • Employers learn a great deal more about the occupations they are hiring for, the skills and credentials they should be requiring, and the wages being paid to similar employees around the state. • Students become better informed about short-term training programs that lead to gainful employment in the state and regions in which they live.

18. Data Sources • General information about occupations – U.S. Department of Labor, MyNextMove.org, MySkillsMyFuture.org, Bureau of Labor Statistics, O’net • Real-time data on occupation demand – Burning Glass • Status of recent college graduates – Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System (IWIS).

19. Most Job Postings for Sub-Baccalaureate Occupations (Source: Burning Glass)

20. Most Requested/Required Certifications (Source: Burning Glass)

21. Status of Recent College Graduates (Source: Indiana’s Workforce Intelligence System) Example – Registered Nurses

22. Data and Information Available by Region Gary South Bend Fort Wayne Lafayette Richmond Indianapolis Terre Haute Bloomington Columbus New Albany Evansville

23. Additional Features • “Top 10 Lists” – e.g. Occupations with greatest demand, highest earnings, highest percentage of employability, most requested certifications by Indiana employers, most requested specialized skills by Indiana employers, etc. • Job Description Creator – an easy-to-use tool that enables employers to generate job descriptions for occupations they are hiring for – utilizing the data and information on the website (e.g. typical level of education required, certifications associated with the occupation, wages earned by Indiana employees, etc.)

24. Add Screenshots of IndianaSkills.com