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The future of aid, 2005-2010

The future of aid, 2005-2010. Setting the scene: trends and forces shaping the aid system. Why now?. 2005 is decision time, coherent or not: Post-9/11 foreign policies still in flux, Impacting the fragile 2002 aid “consensus”, While new schemes graft onto old system;

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The future of aid, 2005-2010

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  1. The future of aid, 2005-2010 Setting the scene: trends and forces shaping the aid system

  2. Why now? • 2005 is decision time, coherent or not: • Post-9/11 foreign policies still in flux, • Impacting the fragile 2002 aid “consensus”, • While new schemes graft onto old system; • UK/EU and US can innovate

  3. What’s up for discussion? • The credibility of the Millennium Goals • Should aid double and if so, how; • Aid if no trade?; • Who runs the IMF and World Bank; • Value-added of EU and UN; • How to pay for global goods.

  4. The aid system today • Talking ODA, mainly • Some 75 agencies, $58 billion p.a. • Much of it technical, humanitarian • No exits and many entries • Weak users, weak owners

  5. Four shaping forces • Shrinking middle on the demand side • Multiple donor objectives • Symbiotic relationships with NGOs • Institutional barriers to competition

  6. Consensus Better, simpler aid Predictability Millennium Goals Ownership and PRS Performance-based Achilles’ Heel Cost-benefit? Short termism Growth, shelf life Conditionality Selectivity Conventional wisdom after Monterrey

  7. Unfinished Business • Aid volume and Absorption • New Tied Aid • Selectivity and Balance • Grants versus Loans

  8. New Wine into old bottles • The Millennium Challenge Account: beyond conditionality? • The Global Fund: chip off the old block? • The International Financing Facility: opportunity to reshape global aid governance?

  9. Poverty +/- Tied aid +/- MDG triumph/ fade UN , EU, up/down Pivot role of MICs Competition +/- Recipient choice +/- More, less bilaterals More, less NGOs Pivot role of MICs 2010, a snapshot : two sketches among many

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