ASHRAE Birmingham Chapter

1. ASHRAE Birmingham Chapter Tom Werkema ASHRAE Vice President Distinguished Lecturer September, 2013

2. ASHRAE WILL GIVE YOU THE WORLD Give Back to ASHRAE TEACH NETWORK LEARN GROW SHARE This ASHRAE Distinguished Lecturer is brought to you by the Society Chapter Technology Transfer Committee

3. Complete the Distinguished Lecturer Event Summary Critique Forms are available at: www.ashrae.org/distinguishedlecturers • CTTC needs your feedback to continue to improve the DL Program • Distribute the DL Evaluation Form to all attendees • Collect at the end of the meeting • Compile the attendee rating on the Event Summary Critique • Send the completed Event Summary Critique to your CTTC RVC and ASHRAE Headquarters

4. BECOME A FUTURE LEADER IN ASHRAE – WRITE THE NEXT CHAPTER IN YOUR CAREER Find your Place in ASHRAE! Visit www.ashrae.org ASHRAE Members who attend their monthly chapter meetings become leaders and bring information and technology back to their job. YOU ARE NEEDED FOR: • Membership Promotion • Research Promotion • Student Activities • Chapter Technology Transfer Technical Committee

5. Agenda 1. Climate Change Science BREAK 2. Climate International 3. Climate Country Specific 4. Regions/States 5. Energy Efficiency 6. Ozone Science 7. Ozone International 8. Ozone Country Programs 9. Technology Impact 10. Personal Responses to Climate Change

6. What is the “greenhouse effect”? Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation. It is much cooler than the sun, though, so it emits in the infrared, just like a person, a cat, or any other body. Some of that infrared energy may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere, affecting the global energy balance.

7. Venus has an atmosphere with more than 90% CO2. It also has sulfuric acid clouds. Its planetary greenhouse effect is about 500°C (the atmosphere raises the temperature by that much). Earth has an atmosphere with much less CO2 than Venus. The greenhouse effect raises its average temperature by about 30°C. The greenhouse effect is basic physics and it is real. What about greenhouse warming?

8. The Atmosphere CCS-2

11. Carbon dioxide 1960-2008

12. The 2000s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 years CCS-3

14. NOAA/AGGI

15. Radiative Forcing CCS-7

16. Halocarbon Emissions, continued Combined CO2-equivalent emissions from halocarbons: ~7.5 Gt near 1990, about 33% of that year's CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning ~2.5 Gt near 2000, about 10% of that year’s CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning

17. Climate Change - International 3 largest GHGs at record levels Increasing at ever faster rate CO2 @ 397 PPM CH4 & N2O also up Total increase 30% since 1990

18. Mt. Pinatubo - Philippines

21. Sea Ice Extent – March 2012 FIGURE 1. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT ON MARCH 18 WAS 15.24 MILLION SQUARE KILOMETERS (5.88 MILLION SQUARE MILES). THE ORANGE LINE SHOWS THE 1979 TO 2000 MEDIAN EXTENT FOR THAT DAY. THE BLACK CROSS INDICATES THE GEOGRAPHIC NORTH POLE. SEA ICE INDEX DATA. ABOUT THE DATA.CREDIT: NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTERHIGH-RESOLUTION IMAGE

22. Sea Ice Extent –Sept. 2012

23. Figure 5. These images show declining sea ice age, which indicates a thinning Arctic sea ice cover more vulnerable to melting in summer. Ice older than two years now accounts for less than 10% of the ice cover. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy NOAA/ESRL

26. Cloud changes: the biggest cause of prediction uncertainty Global warming will change cloud warming and cooling characteristics. This will exert a powerful feedback on climate change, but the feedback projected varies between models.

27. Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966–2000

28. Components of sea-level rise

34. Mt. Pinatubo - Philippines

35. Gulf Stream – aka Global Halon Circulation System

40. 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Date (year A.D.)

41. Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T = 14 years) in the atmosphere compared to CO2 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 HFC-134a 0.2 0.1 0 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 Date (year A.D.)

42. Cut-off at a 100 year Integration Time Horizon 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 HFC-134a 0.2 0.1 0 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 Date (year A.D.)

43. Agenda 1. Climate Change Science 2. Climate International 3. Climate Country Specific 4. Regions/States 5. Energy Efficiency 6. Ozone Science 7. Ozone International 8. Ozone Country Programs 9. Technology Impact 10. Personal Responses to Climate Change

44. Global Emissions Scenario IS92 a IPCC 1992 Current estimates for emissions growth in Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher

45. Global Emissions for 550 PPM Stabilization IPCC 1994 Stabilization is not feasible without Non-Annex 1 countries’ participation

48. Climate Change International • August 1990 • June 1992 • March/April 1995 • December 1995 • July 1996 • December 1997 First IPCC Assessment Rio de Janeiro, Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties (1), Berlin Second IPCC Assessment Conference of Parties (II), Geneva Conference of Parties (III), Kyoto

49. Kyoto Protocol • Controls Emissions • 6 Greenhouse Gases • CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 • Avg. reduction for developed countries • 5.2% from 1990 level • 2015 reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3 ppm • Now represents < 13% of total emissions

50. Climate Change – International Meetings in Doha, Qatar – Nov, Dec 2012 2013 November in Prague, Czech Republic Agreed to continue Kyoto Protocol 8 year period from 2013 Did not agree to fund $100b/year for developing countries Previous agreements would commence funding in 2015 Developed countries provided $30b in interim