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The problem with Belgium …

The problem with Belgium …. Frederik Delaplace Editorial Director Mediafin De Tijd & L’Echo. “ Rumours of my Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated “ Mark Twain. A typical Belgian. Flemish,European , Belgian Working in Brussels Living in Flanders

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The problem with Belgium …

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  1. The problemwithBelgium… FrederikDelaplace Editorial Director Mediafin De Tijd & L’Echo

  2. “Rumours of my Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated “ Mark Twain

  3. A typical Belgian • Flemish,European, Belgian • Working in Brussels • Living in Flanders • Managing a bilingual newsroom, producing newspaper in Fr & Dtch • Dutch first name, French surname

  4. A video on Belgium

  5. A governmentforeveryproblem: italwaysworkeduntilnow

  6. What’s the problemtoday?

  7. What’s the problemtoday?

  8. FlandersvsWallonia • Institutionally: eager for change • Economically right-wing • Wealthy • Oriented to the Anglo-Saxon world • Wants more self-control • Institutionally conservative • Economically left-wing • Slow economic recovery • Oriented to southern Europe • Wants to protect Belgian structures

  9. The famous BHV

  10. “Nousavonsunaccord.”

  11. Well, some of us have…

  12. Last government?

  13. New government • Will have to cut expenses • Will have to raise taxes • Will have to rethink the costly social security • Will have to strengthen the financial sector • … • Will need (at least) 22bn € savings and new income by 2015.

  14. FT, this morning

  15. Let’s talk economy…. • Economic growth above european average • Belgium, one of two European countries where economic activity is now higher than before 2008 • Budget deficit lower than European average • Credit rating AA+ (S&P, Fitch), Aa1 (Moody’s) • Unemployment lower than European average • Current account surplus (families save more than budget deficit) => poor country, rich people • World famous social security system • Rich families and companies=> financing debt internally

  16. On the downside • Sovereign debt above average, just above 100% GDP (difference with European average declining) • Credit rating under negative review, largely due to banking problems • Competitiveness worsening due to high labour cost (automatic inflation link), inflexible labour market • Political turmoil

  17. And, of course, high taxes…

  18. Economicgrowth

  19. Our banks • 2008: • Government intervention in Fortis (sold to BNP Paribas), Dexia and KBC (capital injections and warranties) • Restructuring program agreed with EU • 2011: • Nationalisation of Dexia Bank Belgium • New problems ahead? • Rating agencies very critical about Belgian debt situation

  20. Our most famousbanker is… …our prime minister

  21. Are we worse off than others?

  22. More thanchocolates… • Relatively good economic growth perspectives • Dynamic corporate culture, more and more export driven (AB Inbev, Le Pain Quotidien, Univeg, Jan De Nul, Netlog…) • Financial problems rather well handled, but the inheritance remains heavy, rating revision under way • Poor country, rich citizens

  23. Best financial media in Europe ;-)

  24. Bill Bailey’s view http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/video/2011/oct/11/bill-bailey-bunker-belgium-video

  25. frederik.delaplace@mediafin.be @fdelaplace Questions?

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