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What future for roads in a sustainable world

Professor John Cole University of Southern Queensland. People Mobility and Economics. What future for roads in a sustainable world. These megatrends will shape future. More from less - depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources means resource use efficiency

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What future for roads in a sustainable world

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  1. Professor John Cole University of Southern Queensland People Mobility and Economics What future for roads in a sustainable world

  2. These megatrends will shape future • More from less- depleting natural resources and increasing demand for those resources means resource use efficiency • A personal touch - Growth of services followed by second wave of innovation aimed at tailoring and targeting services • Divergent demographics - OECD ageing and lifestyle and diet related health problems vs 3rd world high fertility rates, malnourishment and poverty . • On the move– career mobility, moving house more often, commuting further and travelling overseas more often • i World - paralleling natural world with digital virtual world Our Future World Draft March 2010 An analysis of global trends, shocks and scenarios Compiled by Stefan Hajkowicz and James Moody with detailed input from over 50 CSIRO scientific and business development staff

  3. Australia’s dilemma Graph from “Factor Five: Transforming the Global economy through 80% Improvements in resource productivity”, Ernst von Weizacker et al Earthscan London 2009 p 241

  4. Can we compete with a cost structure like this? Cost of a loaf of bread Australia Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu/GF Baking Division in The Australian 11 Feb 2012 p 15

  5. Road freight estimates and forecasts 1972-2030 National Transport Commission 2011

  6. More cars, fewer passengers, more trips Connecting SEQ 2031 Qld Government

  7. Australia – economic directions as personal experience Services dominant Health and Education are growth sectors

  8. I thought the talk was about sustainability…

  9. The biggest question of our times Can we live sustainably? “…it is wrong to destroy the habitability of our planet and ruin the prospects of every generation that follows ours” Al Gore in The Assault of Reason (2007) 213

  10. Sustainability • A system condition • Aspirational goal • Not necessarily a natural state • People focussed concept Potential Resilience It’s about us Connectedness

  11. Roads, systems and sustainability Roads as Structure Roads as function • Geophysical • Spatial impacts • Embedded energy and materials • Ambient environmental impact • Economic functions – mobility and trade • Social functions – mobility, settlement patterns • Metaphorical functions – human psychology • Functional impacts – environmental and social System issues: governance, business models, status, utilisation

  12. BAU is not working “The traditional approach is proving unsustainable. “The community should be encouraged to reconsider its perception of the road network as being a pure public good. Jim Murphy, Deputy Secretary, Commonwealth Treasury 22 March 2012 AFR 23 March 2012

  13. More will be spent on trains and ports and roads AFR 2 Nov 2011 40 projects $41b - 75% Victoria and Qld

  14. The curse of traffic congestion “The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE 2007) estimates that the avoidable cost of road congestion is currently in excess of $10 billion per annum, and that this cost will continue to rise over the coming decade, reaching around $20 billion nationally by 2020 if we continue ‘business as usual’. Discussion Paper:Our Cities- building a productive, sustainable and liveable future – Commonwealth Government 2010 AFR 2 Dec 2010 p7 “The real cost of building roads has increased by around 65 per cent over the last 15 years. There is also less suitable land for new roads in our cities, and evidence increasingly suggests that new roads are not in themselves a solution to congestion”.

  15. Sector systems threats presents opportunities • Public expectation re utilities & infrastructure • Lack of full cost pricing • Energy/materials intensity • Peak oil • Market asymmetry/distortions • Lifecycle investment • Utilities business models inc cost • One size fits all

  16. We take our roads for granted • As a percentage of GDP infrastructure spending reduced by around 40% in the decade to 2007 (The Australian 22 Jan 2011 p7) • $700bn shortfall – IE Aust Jan 2011 • ALGA - road maintenance and upgrade shortfalls exceed $1.2bn annually (CM 15 Oct 2010 p 25) $16 bn spent on school halls $3.4 bn spent on rail

  17. Automotive transformation – is anyone interested? AFR 16 Mar 2012 p 17 • 49 electric cars sold in Australia in 2011 • Factor 10 improvement in car emissions needed to meet 2050 target • 2011 cars were about 3% more fuel efficient than cars year before • Nissan Leaf 170 k m on $6 • But costs $51,000

  18. Get someone else to pay Public-private partnerships supported by Australians The Australian 4 August 2011 p6

  19. The business model is not profitable • $3.2 bn airport link • Record daily use 81,470 August • Projections 135,000 daily • 10 banks have $3bn in the project • Debt restructuring inevitable • Needed – a funding model to reflect socio-economic transition

  20. This is where we are… “Acceptable ideas are competent no more and competent ideas are not yet acceptable” Stafford Beer, Platforms of Change, New York, John Wiley and Sons: 1975 The Sustainability Paradox

  21. There are things we can do to properly price road usage AFR 23 Feb 2011, p13

  22. Whole systems approach to resource productivity • Ask the right questions to ensure the need or service is met • Benchmark against the optimal system • Design and optimise the whole system • Account for all measurable impacts • Design and optimise subsystems in sequence • Ditto to achieve compounding resource savings • Review the system for potential improvements • Model the system track technology innovation • Design to create future options

  23. Materials innovation Light Weight Geopolymer Fly ash Aerated geopolymer

  24. Multi-modal precints

  25. High speed freight http://www.rail.co/2012/03/21/high-speed-freight-train-runs-from-lyon-to-london/

  26. Freeways to streets We cannot ignore the socio-cultural context and function of roads

  27. Road haulage = base load flexible mobility

  28. But the roads sustainability issue will not resolve until… • Full lifecycle costs are understood, accounted for and paid • Viable business models sharing risk and stimulating public and private investment are developed and accepted • Australians understand that nothing is free • Fixing inefficiency delivers short as well as long term payback

  29. john.cole@usq.edu.au Thank You

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