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National Hurricane Center The Road Ahead

National Hurricane Center The Road Ahead. Bill Read, Director National Hurricane Center. Drivers. Decision support concept of operations Storm Surge Road Map Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project AWIPS 2 transition Communication landscape Coastal development (land use policy)

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National Hurricane Center The Road Ahead

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  1. National Hurricane Center The Road Ahead Bill Read, Director National Hurricane Center

  2. Drivers • Decision support concept of operations • Storm Surge Road Map • Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project • AWIPS 2 transition • Communication landscape • Coastal development (land use policy) • Hurricane resistant building (or not) • Evacuation philosophy(ies)

  3. Decision Support: Hurricane Liaison Team DHS NOC Communication Flowchart FEMA NRCC National Hurricane Center @ the Tropical Prediction Center FEMA RRCC HLT HLT State EOCs Hurricane Hotline Local NWSFOs Local EOCs

  4. Decision Support:Hurricane Liaison Team Looking forward: review, revise, improve • Provide an avenue for the rapid exchange of communication with the National Hurricane Center • Provide information as a key decision tool for evacuation decision making to save lives • Aid in providing information for response resource allocations Video Teleconfernece during Hurricane Rita. President Bush, Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin are being briefed by DHS, FEMA and the NHC.

  5. Decision Support: Collaboration WFO-NHC • Philosophy for collaboration (Ours rather than mine or yours) • Tools for collaboration – AWIPS 2 or ??? • Service goal – improved decision support • Forecaster exchange program – increase mutual understanding • Course for WFOs

  6. Keys to advances in the next decade Funded operationally oriented research Continued improvement in computing power Operational models deliver on results of research

  7. NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Lead Director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division 22 September 2009

  8. National Hurricane Forecast System - 2020 • Goals • Improve Forecast Accuracy • Hurricane impact areas (track) – 50% in 10 years • Severity (intensity) – 50% in 10 years • Storm surge impact locations and severity • Extend forecast reliability out to 7 days • Quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty to enable risk management decisions

  9. Track improvement trend and HFIP Goals – Limit to predictability?

  10. Ike example with current and future cone (HFIP Goal) . . . Red dot is landfall - Same relative error to cone – note much smaller threat area

  11. Intensity Goals for HFIP much more of a challenge than Track

  12. Rapid intensity changeCurrent models have little or no skill

  13. Experimental Rapid Intensification

  14. AWIPS 2 – short term drag on improvements Hard to change A long time coming

  15. Communications Landscape • Expanding media (how to keep up with) • Graphical/text mix • Serious media – social media - how best to use • Content

  16. “Products”…. Plus one more page… Plus 8 more pages…

  17. …or “information”?

  18. Land Use Policy • 100 year flood plain • “We will rebuild – and better” • Chamber of Commerce mentality toward mitigation • Growth into risk areas along the coast unabated

  19. The 100 Year Flood Plain

  20. “I was told I wasn’t in a flood plain” Atlanta, 2009

  21. Tropical Storm Allison • Most flooded property outside the 100 year – buyouts • Most of 100,000 cars were parked – streets are floodways • Medical center flooded 1976 and most hospitals mitigated to the 100 year event – 2.5B in damage due to Allison… • Deaths - all either drove or walked into flood water well after warnings issued

  22. Storm Surge – “we will be back” But should we???

  23. What we must do this next decade • Require Flood Insurance for all in identified surge risk area – recruit the mortgage industry (Like they do for Fire) • Advocate a land use policy prohibiting critical care institutions like nursing homes from being built in surge zones

  24. “We will rebuild – and build better” • Biloxi – New Orleans – Galveston --- every time a hurricane disaster occurred the city leaders have stated their city would rise from the debris. • However… the rebuilds haven’t been that much better… maybe even worse today as much more expensive stuff going up right on the waters edge (or in NOLA case, below…) • Building codes in most states only minimally increases resilience of homes and businesses (if followed)

  25. Chamber of Commerce • “we don’t want to scare away potential residents or businesses” • “people will not pay the higher price for code built homes” • Biloxi example (casino set back, innovative pole markers) • Galveston County example (flood stakes at low water crossing, surge markers)

  26. What we must do this next decade Make allies of the Chambers of Commerce!

  27. Evacuation challenges • Post Katrina 120 hour timelines • FEMA Administrator, some state directors pushing to re think with goal of shortening timelines • Factors other than safety of life come into play ($$$, perception of lost tourism) • Decisions are made on uncertainty, regardless of whether or not the decider knows it

  28. Evacuation philosophy??? Everyone leaves – even if they don’t really have to

  29. Evacuation Philosophy? Less than 10% evacuate – even when told to!

  30. The Road ahead….

  31. “If you do not change your direction, you will end up exactly where you are headed” Ancient Chinese proverb

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