School Roll Forecasting in Aberdeenshire

1. School Roll Forecasting in Aberdeenshire Richard Belding Aberdeenshire Council

2. Aberdeenshire in Scotland

4. Actual School Rolls

5. Brief History • 1977 FORTRAN model run on ICL mainframe computer at Grampian Regional Council • 1984 program redeveloped on modular basis using Lotus 1-2-3 on IBM PC/XT microcomputer (each secondary school with its feeder primary schools in a separate worksheet file) • 1996 system converted to MS Excel at Aberdeenshire Council after local government reorganisation • System updated annually • The fact that computer-based forecasts have been updated annually for 30 years reflects demand but also recognition that forecasts have limitations

6. Outline of Method • Currently forecasts produced annually from council Sept school census base for each stage (class/year) in each of 152 primary and 17 secondary schools for each school year to 2016 • For each school, method involves rolling forward year by year total pupils at each stage: seven primary (P1-P7) and six secondary (S1-S6) stages offered • Additional factors taken into account include: - intake to primary schools - out of zone admissions - transfer from primary to secondary schools - new house building and pupil yield - pupils staying beyond statutory school leaving age - constraints, migration and occupancy rate change

7. Not Included • No single-sex, selective or denominational state schools in Aberdeenshire • No forecasts made for nursery, special or private schools • But need to cope with openings, closures, and mergers of schools, phasing in and out of pupils, primary zone (ie catchment area) changes, secondary rezoning and secondary destinations outside council area

8. Intake to Primary Schools • During first seven forecast years, school roll increasingly influenced by P1 intake • Annual extract from Community Health Index (NHS patient register) of estimated numbers of pre-school aged children resident in zone used for first two P1 intake years forecasted • Beyond this, P1 intakes depended on changes in birth totals at council area level using GROS actual or council forecast figures

9. Out of Zone Admissions 1 • Adjustments to future P1 and S1 intakes to reflect recent levels of out of zone admissions near start of these stages • Movements expressed as net change to each school, and forecast moves held constant over time • Assumed that any net change due to out of zone admissions only occurs near start of P1 or S1 (Any other changes of this type only included when base roll updated to new base date) • Assumed that out of zone admission to primary school does not take place from residence outside of delineated secondary zone containing that primary school’s zone

10. Out of Zone Admissions 2 • In current set of forecasts, effects of admission limits and reserved places on secondary school intakes have not been taken into account

11. Transfer from Primary to Secondary Schools • Normally transfer from primary to secondary education takes place according to standard set of zoning procedures • Assume that P7 pupils in a primary school at end of summer term do not subsequently migrate out of current secondary zone before or move to privateeducation at start of secondary schooling • Then P7 stage will transfer in its entirety to one secondary school unless: - the cause is (or was) out of zone admission, or - the primary school has split or dual zoning (in six cases, separate forecasts produced for each part)

12. New House Building • Number of estimated and anticipated completions of dwellingsby calendar year and primary zone updated as at 1 January each year • Certain developments excluded: - small sites (below five units) - sheltered housing sites - sites consisting only or mainly of one bedroom flats • Also included were major new developments identified between 1 January and time of school roll forecasts

13. Pupil Yield • Number of pupils likely to be generated from newly completed dwellings depends on type of property • At primary zone level, forecast total P1-P7 pupil yield (pupils per new dwelling ratio) used now varies spatially from 0.30 to 0.45 • At secondary zone level, forecast total S1-S4 pupil yieldis either 0.15 or 0.20 • These totals are then distributed between stages • A forecast pupil yield is held constant over time

14. Pupils Staying beyond Statutory School Leaving Age • Forecast staying on rates into S5 and S6 calculated from recent levels in school concerned (held constant over time) • But note changes in curriculum, availability of places in further and higher education, job prospects • Scottish Government does not plan to raise statutory school leaving age

15. Constraints, Migration and Occupancy Rate Change • Council strategic forecasts of 5-11 and 12-15 year olds at 2011 and 2016 for Aberdeenshire were used to derive control totals for P1-P7 and S1-S4 pupil forecasts to take some account of net migration and occupancy rate change within existing dwelling stock • Allowances made for factors such as special and private schools, as well as out of zone admissionsandsecondary zoning movements across council area boundary • Linear interpolation used at intermediate dates • For each year sequentially, proportional adjustment for all primary schoolsin a secondary zone followed by same for S1-S4 in the secondary school: changes feed through worksheet to later years and stages for these schools

16. Compare with Capacity 1 • For each school and year, total roll compared with school capacity (taking into consideration only permanent and linked temporary accommodation) • Problems at primary level for current update

17. Compare with Capacity 2

18. Error: General • Initially assumed that when family moves out of zone, new family replaces it with same number and age of children as previously, but some subsequent allowance for occupancy rate change within existing dwelling stock • Number or date of anticipated completions of dwellings or forecast pupil yield in zone may not be correct particularly in long term • To try to minimise inaccuracy, roll forecasts updated annually • Because of independent rounding to nearest pupil, sum of individual P1 to P7 or S1 to S6 forecast rolls may not be exactly the same as total for each school

19. Error: Primary Schools • A difficult part of primary school roll forecasting is predicting P1 intake • Particularly in settlements with more than one primary school, where schools relatively close together, out of zone admissions may become an issue

20. Error: Secondary Schools • In short term, most potential secondary pupils already within local feeder primary school system • In Aberdeenshire, secondary schools relatively isolated spatially from each other: no settlement has more than one secondary school, and this limits impact of out of zone admissions, which may make roll prediction more difficult (also admission limits and reserved places can have effects) • However, staying on rates into final two stages may fluctuate from year to year in a school

21. Error: Small Schools 1 • Relative inaccuracy of forecasts for small primaryschools can be significantly influenced by movements of one or two families into or out of zone • Method uses changes in birth totals at council area level in forecasts for individual primary schools, and anticipated completions of dwellings on small sites not included (small sites important in rural areas of Aberdeenshire which small primary schools serve), thus forecasts for small primary schools must be treated with considerable caution • Data for small primaryschools used in final primaryconstraining phase and in secondary forecasts

22. Error: Small Schools 2 Primary Secondary

23. Error: Small Schools 3 Primary Secondary

24. Richard Belding Aberdeenshire Council 10 September 2008 for the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies (Revised but not updated 3 March 2009)