Research and Public Policy Evans School of Public Affairs April 30 , 2013

1. Research and Public Policy Evans School of Public Affairs April 30, 2013 Annie Pennucci Associate Director Washington State Institute for Public Policy www.wsipp.wa.gov

2. Background The Research Examples Upcoming Washington State Institute for Public Policy Washington State Institute for Public Policy Created by the 1983 Legislature • Mission: carry out non–partisan research on projects assigned by the Legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors • Board of Directors • Senator Mark Schoesler, Co-Chair • House Democratic Vacancy, Co-Chair • Senator Mike Carrell • Senator Karen Fraser • Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles • Representative Cary Condotta • House Republican Vacancy • House Democratic Vacancy • Ken Conte, House Staff • Richard Rodger, Senate Staff • David Schumacher, OFM Director • Gubernatorial Appointee Vacancy • Sandra Archibald, Univ. of WA • Les Purce, The Evergreen State Col. • Robert Rosenman, WA State Univ. • Rodolfo Arévalo, Eastern WA Univ.

3. Background The Research Examples Upcoming Washington State Institute for Public Policy WSIPP Capitol

4. Background The Research Examples Upcoming Washington State Institute for Public Policy • 1983 legislative intent • Apply expertise of academia to needs of state policymakers • Connect The Evergreen State College (based in Olympia) with state government • Goal: better informed policy making

5. Background The Research Examples Upcoming Washington State Institute for Public Policy • Current role • Applied research • Legislature assigns and funds most studies • Reports are easy to understand and accessible to policymakers • Non-partisan staff

6. The Research Background Examples Upcoming Three Types of Legislative Assignments to WSIPP • What Works? Benefit-Cost Analysis (research reviews) • Outcome evaluations of specific Washington programs (primary research) • Miscellaneous Are there evidence-based policy options that improve public outcomes, at less cost?

7. The Research Background Examples Upcoming 1a. What Works? What Doesn’t? • We systematically analyze all, credible evaluations of real world ways to improve key public outcomes. • Crime • Education, Early Ed. • Child Abuse & Neglect • Substance Abuse • Mental Health • Developmental Disabilities • Teen Births • Employment • Public Assistance • Public Health • Housing What does the weight of the evidence tell us?

8. The Research Background Examples Upcoming 1b. What’s Cost-Beneficial? • For programs and policies determined to “work” • How much does it cost? • What are the long-term benefits in monetary/fiscal terms? • Which are the best investments from the state’s perspective? • What is the risk of success/failure?

9. The Research Background Examples Upcoming 2. Outcome Evaluations • Do Washington programs & policies achieve their intended effects? • Comparison group research • Administrative and survey data • Outcomes-focused

10. The Research Background Examples Upcoming 3. Miscellaneous • “Other duties as assigned” • Often qualitative (e.g., describe a program or process or survey stakeholders regarding their views) • Review other states’ policies in comparison with Washington’s • Key Institute role = independence, objectivity

11. Examples Background The Research Upcoming Example #1: How Does Class Size Impact Student Outcomes? • Report to the 2013 Legislature • Test scores and high school graduation • Literature review (meta-analysis) • Supplemented by WSIPP analysis of state-level data • Cost estimation • Risk analysis

12. Examples Background The Research Upcoming Literature Search • How to find studies: • Keywords in combination (class size, evaluation, K-12, outcomes, public schools, effective, and so on) • Databases (ProQuest and other academic journal sources, Google Scholar) • Previously published reviews/meta-analyses. Comb reference lists. • Organization databases (e.g., the Campbell Collaboration, What Works Clearinghouse)

13. Examples Background The Research Upcoming Literature Review • Screening studies: • Is the study an evaluation or descriptive? • Does the evaluation address the research question? • Is there a valid comparison group? • What outcomes are measured?

14. Examples Background The Research Upcoming Meta-analysis • An effect size (or in the case of class size, an “elasticity”) • Represents the difference in outcomes between the experimental and comparison groups • Tells us how much change we might expect in an outcome if a program or policy is implemented • Must be interpreted within the context of the policy environment

15. Examples Background The Research Upcoming How a 10% Decrease in Class Size Affects Student Outcomes* *The measured outcomes include student test score gains, high school graduation, and dropout rates. The chart plots the 77 credible effects we found in the research literature. Our summary line is a weighted average.

16. Examples Background The Research Upcoming Per-Student Benefits and Costs of Reducing Class Size by One Student

17. Examples Background The Research Upcoming Economics & Risk: Reducing Class Size by One Student Chance that benefits outweigh costs 100% 1st grade: 94% Close to 50% 50% 0% K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Grade Where Class Size Is Reduced

18. $307 Grade repetition reduction Lower K-12 costs $3.06 Examples Background The Research Upcoming Example #2: Early Childhood Education (low income) Benefits Per Individual 2011 dollars Main Source of Benefits Crime reduction $5,485 Lower CJ / victim costs Less child abuse & neglect Test scores & graduation rates $1,240 $13,266 Increased earnings Lower CW / victim costs Lower K-12 costs Special education reduction $1,081 Fewer out-of-home placements $557 Lower CW / victim costs Lower health care system costs $756 Lower Medicaid enroll. $22,693 Total Benefits Per Individual Nearly 100% chance of benefits exceeding costs $7,489 Cost Per Individual Benefits Per Dollar of Cost

19. Examples Background The Research Upcoming WSIPP “Consumer Reports” Lists Evidence-based policy options ranked by return on investment

20. Upcoming Background The Research Example Current Legislative Proposals • In the 2013 session: • Reduce class size in K-3 (or K-1) • Expand early childhood education for low-income children by 10% • Assign WSIPP additional reviews to identify evidence-based options for K-12 education funding increases

21. Upcoming Background The Research Example Current WSIPP Projects • Innovative K-12 Public Schools in Washington State • State Need Grant (Student Outcomes) • Outcomes of Juveniles Tried in Adult Courts • I-502 Evaluation: Costs and Benefits of the Legalization of Cannabis in Washington State • Impacts on Crime from Different Approaches to Policing

22. Upcoming Background The Research Example Potential* Upcoming WSIPP Projects • How can the state control Medicaid costs? • Which components of early childhood education programs are evidence-based? • Develop a risk assessment tool for individuals involuntarily committed for mental illness • Compile an inventory of evidence-based approaches to substance abuse intervention *Depends on 2013 legislative session