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Postprocessing of temperature and wind for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2

Vanessa Stauch Offenbach, September 2009. Postprocessing of temperature and wind for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2. COSMO General Meeting. calibration with Kalman Filter. >> recursive estimation of forecast error (prediction – correction) >> requires online observations

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Postprocessing of temperature and wind for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2

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  1. Vanessa Stauch Offenbach, September 2009 Postprocessing of temperature and wind for COSMO-7 and COSMO-2 COSMO General Meeting

  2. calibration with Kalman Filter >> recursive estimation of forecast error (prediction – correction) >> requires online observations >> can be used quasi-instantaneously (no large historical database) >> cannot predict fast changes (assumption of persistent error) >> suitable for a subset of parameters (normally distributed errors)

  3. error : ^ error model: with with states evolution: ^ prediction: calibration with Kalman Filter

  4. COSMO models COSMO-LEPS COSMO-LEPS 10km, +132 hours COSMO-7 6.6km, +72 hours COSMO-2 2.2km, +24 hours COSMO-2 COSMO-7

  5. Kalman Filter @ MeteoSwiss operational: T2m, TD2m for COSMO-LEPS mean COSMO-7 COSMO-2 IFS in preparation: FF10m, TW2m, RH2m for COSMO-LEPS mean COSMO-7 COSMO-2 IFS

  6. Swiss met. measurement network 62 stations

  7. T2m predictions COSMO-7 COSMO-7 COSMO-7 COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-2 KFC7 KFC2 performance?

  8. benefit COSMO-2 vs COSMO-7? C2 vs C7 C2-KF vs C7-KF =

  9. benefit COSMO-2 vs COSMO-7-KF??

  10. stations for wind speed calibration Schaffhausen (SHA) Chasseral (CHA) Üetliberg (UEB) Oron (ORO) Piz Martegnas (PMA) Gütsch (GUE) SMN station WKA Evionnaz (EVI)

  11. SHA CHA/WiCro UEB WiFel WiGue ORO PMA EVI/WiCol height differences

  12. represenativeness of met. station wind turbine Gütsch model prediction representative for (mean) grid box local point observation (specific conditions)

  13. SHA CHA UEB PMA ORO GUE EVI COSMO-7 vs COSMO-2 rRMSE (%) für 1-24h, period 01.09.08 – 31.03.09

  14. SHA CHA UEB PMA ORO GUE EVI effect on MOS-postprocessing rRMSE (%) für 1-24h, period 01.09.08 – 31.03.09

  15. SHA CHA UEB PMA ORO GUE EVI effect on KF-postprocessing rRMSE (%) für 1-24h, Zeitraum 01.09.08 – 31.03.09

  16. summary >> statistical postprocessing profits from a better NWP input model >> „dynamical downscaling“ does not replace statistical adaptation to local observations (in particular if results being verified against those)

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