US National Security Interests

1. US National Security Interests Iraq

2. Defining National Security Interests US National Security Policy US National Interests: “our perceived needs and aspirations in relation to our international engagement” • Vital National Interest • When threatened – US must act; not acting will have immediate, critical consequences to US Interests. • Important National Interests • Not acting to protect these will cause damage, that may eventually have critical consequences. • Peripheral National Interests • Unlikely to affect critical national interests.

3. Elements National Power • Diplomatic – efforts in direct and indirect diplomacy, through our State Department professionals. • Informational - Information dissemination to shape our interests and behavior of other nations. • Military – application of military power. • Economic - use of US Economic Power to shape behavior

4. Area: slightly smaller than California Population: ~ 26.5 million Largest city: Baghdad (5.6 million) Religion: 97% Muslim (65% Shia) 3% Christian Language: 80% Arabic 20% Kurdish Iraq

5. Sandstorm- Southeastern Iraq

6. Zagros Mountains near Sulaimaniyah

7. Wheat fields in the Jazirah

8. Alluvial plain

9. Marshes of southern Iraq

10. Long-standing patterns in the history of Iraq Continue to have a strong impact on your present area of operation

11. Major Patterns in the History of Iraq • Tribes and cities have been mutually dependent and competing for power for over 4000 years. • Women and domestic space have been segregated for at least 4000 years • States have been relocating people to reduce their ability to resist for nearly 3000 years • Islam is also an historical, cultural, and civilizational reference point • Conflict for control of Mesopotamia (Iraq) between western powers and Persia (Iran) • Favoritism towards minority Sunni urban elite, discrimination against majority Shia rural poor • Absence of democratic traditions and institutions in modern Iraq

12. United States Iraq Comparative view of the Historical context • Older nation • Younger history and culture • History of democratic transition in government • Citizenship as idiom of participation in rule • Tradition of pluralism and open debate • Younger nation • Older history and culture • History of violent changes of government • Tribalism and ethnicity as idiom of participation in rule • Tradition of particularlism and repression of dissent

13. Provinces of Iraq

15. History of Iraq • Ancient Mesopotamia (3500 BC – 300 AD) • Early Islam (650 – 1258 AD) • Ottoman empire (1520 - 1917) • Modern Iraq (1921 to present)

16. Modern IraqPolitical Rule • Monarchy 1921-1958 • Qasim regime 1958-1963 • Continued military rule 1963-1968 • Baathist control 1968-1979 • Baathism under Saddam 1979-2003

17. Baathist Iraq: 1968 - 2003 No genuine political participation No institutionalized, legitimate rule Real power in the hands of a narrow, tribal-based elite

18. Recap: Modern Iraq • Failure to build broadly-based political institutions • No popular “buy-in” to political process • Reliance on tribes to govern • Involvement of military in governing • Shia and Kurds largely excluded • Instability and violent change of government are the norm

19. Contemporary Military History in Iraq • Iran – Iraq War – 1980 – 1988 • “First Gulf War” – 1991 • Operation Iraqi Freedom – 2003 - present

20. Iran – Iraq War • Continuation of Persian – Western Conflict • Initiated by newly Fundamentalist Iran: • Shah of Iran is deposed, and fundamental Islamists control Iran. • Opposed to ‘secular’ rule in Iraq by Baathists/Hussein. • Repression of Shia Tribes in Iraq. • US sides with Iraq in latter stages of the war. • Ends in a Stalemate, but with both nations weakened from years of war.

21. Persian Gulf War - 1991 • Iraq Invades Kuwait • Threatens Saudi Arabia • Thirty-one nation coalition led by the US defends Saudi Arabia; pushes Iraqi Army from Kuwait • Aftermath: • US presence in Saudi Arabia • Hussein retribution against Shia, Kurds • UN Peace Treaty & Resolutions

22. The Road To Gulf War II • Continued repression of minority Kurds and majority Shia. • UN enforced “No Fly Zones” • UN restrictions on Iraqi weapons development. • UN economic sanctions • US Policy of Regime Change in Iraq • 9/11

23. Operation Iraqi Freedom - 2003 • Small Coalition of the “willing” • Not sanctioned by the UN • US Led Operation: • Quick, decisive defeat of Iraqi Conventional Military forces. • Overthrow of Hussein/Baathists. • “Mission Accomplished”……..

24. OIF – 2004-2006 • Lack of security throughout the nation. • Confusion among US agencies • Widespread Sectarian Violence. (Internal) • Fight for political control • Foreign “Insurgents” (External) • Foment sectarian violence • Kill Americans • Drive America from Iraq • Lack of basic government & services for Iraqi citizens. • Growing Iranian influence and support of Shia militias.

25. “The Surge” • Increased US Combat Troops: • Change in Tactics: • Units deployed alongside Iraqi Sec Forces in neighborhoods. • Bring security and support to Baghdad • Change in Strategy: • Work with Tribes and Militias to improve security and drive out insurgency. • Increase Military authority. • Refocus on Reconstruction & Security

26. The Situation – Jan 2009 • Much safer – everywhere • Insurgency is defeated. • Militias are “beating guns into plowshares” • Iraqi political leadership is stronger and better able to govern. • Iranian influence has been reduced. • Reconstruction has flourished. • Services to citizens and economy are growing.

27. Electricity Reconstruction Overview • There are 3 generation projects valued at $223.5M as of 5 Dec 08. The forecasted completion date of all generation work is Mar 09. The Qudas Power Plant Expansion will be the last to complete. • Mullah Unit one • The Qudas Power Plant Expansion will strengthen the Baghdad Ring and serve 180,000 - 235,000 homes. The contractor is striving to provide power to the grid with one GTG operating on distillate fuel by end of CY08 & with the second GTG in same status by Jan 09. • Qudas –Unit 9 auxiliary package alignment final adjustments • World Bank Estimate: $20B U.S. Contribution: $4.3B • Qudas - Gas Turbine Generator #9 • There are 8 transmission projects in progress valued at $151.1M as of 5 Dec 08. The forecasted completion date of transmission work is 30 Sep 09. The Ghammas Substation will be the last to complete. • Transmission • Work is now completed connecting Haditha Substation Baghdad Bay to West Baghdad. Gulf Region Division ~ US Army Corps of Engineers • Distribution

28. Ribbon Cutting Ceremony at new Elementary School – June 2008

29. The Risk • Lack of political progress – • Are Kurds and Sunni’s represented ? • Will majority Shia share power ? • Will citizens believe in elections ? • Security is tenuous – • Sectarian violence can return • Insurgents • Iran • Turkey and Kurds. • ISF cannot operate without US Military support. • What happens to the US if Iraq becomes a failed state

30. The Solution ?

31. Issues for US Policy Makers • Is Iraq a US vital National Interest ? • What is US objective & desired outcome ? • What is the cost to achieve the objective ? • Is the future cost of operations worth the outcome (Risk/Reward) ? • How do we achieve our objectives ? • Diplomatic - Military • Informational - Economic

32. Discussion • “Go to War” decision-making • Iraq as a National Interest • Middle East as a National Interest. • What is the Global War on Terrorism? • How is Iraq related to GWOT? • How is Afghanistan related to GWOT? • What if ?? Second order effects… • US Defense Strategy Under the Bush Administration – “Preemption” • What Strategy will/should the Obama Administration Pursue ?