Andy Walker Principal Engineer National Renewable Energy Laboratory Andy.Walkernrel

1. Andy Walker Principal Engineer National Renewable Energy Laboratory Andy.Walker@nrel.gov Key talking points: Key talking points:

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3. 3 REO Team Andy Walker, PI Billy Roberts, GIS Claire Kreycik, Incentives Grace Griego, Reports Chris Helm, Software Development Dan Bilello, Donna Heimiller, Jim Leyshon Kate Anderson

4. 4 Purpose of REO To identify and prioritize RE Project Opportunities To estimate magnitude of cost and savings at each. Project Pipeline: Screening (REO) Feasibility Studies Procurement Specifications and Financing Contract and administration Acceptance testing and commissioning

5. 5 Renewable Energy Technologies Photovoltaics

6. 6 Best Mix of Renewable Energy Technologies Depends on: Renewable Energy Resources Technology Characterization Cost ($/kW installed, O&M Cost) Performance (efficiency) Economic Parameters Discount rates Fuel Escalation Rates State, Utility and Federal Incentives Mandates (Executive Order, Legislation)

7. 7 Optimization Procedure

8. 8 Site Information Building name Location Square Footage Number of Floors Use and cost of utilities Ventilation Rates Lighting Levels Hot Water Use

9. 9 Renewable Energy ResourcesGeographical Information System (GIS) Datasets NREL Datasets: solar radiation 10x10 km grid Horizontal, South-facing vertical, tilt=latitude Wind Energy 200mx1000m grid Biomass Resources Illuminance for Daylighting Temperature and Heating Degree Days Purchased Datasets utility rates (wholesale/retail) for each service territory and customer class (residential, industrial, commercial) (Platts) State and utility incentives and utility policy (from www.DSIREUSA.org) City Cost Adjustments (RS Means & Co.) Location Independent Installed Hardware Costs from NREL technology databook Economic Parameters (discount rate, inflation rate)

10. 10 Example of NREL GIS DataWind Energy in vicinity of Fairfield CA This is an example of what our GIS information for the wind resource looks like. This is an example of what our GIS information for the wind resource looks like.

11. 11 Technology CharacteristicsHeuristic Models Cost (Size, m2)*(Unit Cost, $/m2) Performance (Size, m2)*(Resource, kWh/m2)*(efficiency)

12. 12 Technology Characteristics: Photovoltaics

13. 13 Technology Characteristics:Wind Power

14. 14 Technology Characteristics: Solar Water Heating

15. 15 Technology Characteristics: Solar Ventilation Air Preheat

16. 16 Technology Characteristics: Concentrating Solar Heat/Power

17. 17 Technology CharacterizationBiomass Heat and Electricity

18. 18 Technology Characteristics: Daylighting

19. 19 Integration of multiple projects… kWh from utility = kWh load – kWh renewables

20. 20 Two approaches to integration: Time Series. Identify state of system at each time step, and step through time series (8,760 hours/year) to perform integration. Eg: HOMER, SAM, IMBY, PVWatts, etc. Polynomial Expansion: Identify states that system could be in and calculate percentage of time system is in that state. Time period is arbitrary, currently 24 time periods used to represent year (January day, January night, February day, etc etc.) Eg. REO

21. 21 Stochastic Integration of Renewable Energy Technologies by the method of Polynomial Expansion (SIRET)

22. 22 Stochastic Integration of Renewables by method of Polynomial Expansion or…”Mind your P’s and Q’s…” Any number of states, any number of technologies Consider two states (p=fraction time on, q=fraction time off) over time period T for 7 technologies (p + q) = 1 1*1*1*1*1*1*1=1 (p1+q1)*(p2+q2)*(p3+q3)*(p4+q4)*(p5+q5)*(p6+q6)*(p7+q7)=1

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24. 24 Life Cycle Cost Analysis Sum of 25 years (or 40) of cash flows Initial costs Minus any rebates, tax credits, etc. Electric, Gas, and Biomass Fuel Costs Escalated at NIST rates Operation and Maintenance Costs Escalated at general inflation Production Incentives Accelerated Depreciation Future costs are discounted to present value based on discount rate

25. 25 Optimization Problem Determine the least cost combination of renewable energy technologies for a facility Objective: Minimize Life Cycle Cost ($) Variables: Size of Each Technology (kW of PV, kW of wind, etc) Constraints: such as 15% of energy from renewables

26. 26 Comparison of TEAM REO and Site Visit Reports for DOE Sites

27. 27 Compare/Contrast with Hourly Simulation

28. 28

29. 29 Completed REO Analyses Multiple Buildings at one site: Town of Greensburg, KS National Zoo, DC High School in Sun Valley, ID San Nicolas Island, CA DOE Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, NM DOE Savannah River Plant SC Pacific Missile Range Facility, HI Presidio of San Francisco CA Multiple Sites: 7 Frito Lay North America plants 62 Anheuser Busch facilities 8 Agricultural Research Stations in TX 31 DOE Laboratories 85 Air Force Bases 121 GSA Land Ports of Entry 32 DHS Land Ports of Entry 3 USCG Bases

30. 30 Results of Renewable Energy Optimization:Technology Sizes

31. 31 Annual Energy from Each Technology (with Basecase)

32. 32 Initial Costs for Each Technology

33. 33 Photovoltaics not cost effectivedemonstration on school only

34. 34 Wind Energy

35. 35 Solar Ventilation Air Preheating

36. 36 Solar Water Heating

37. 37 Biomass Energy

38. 38 Daylighting

39. 39 Life Cycle Cost of Renewable Energy Case versus BaseCase

40. 40 REO Example: Frito Lay North AmericaMinimum Life Cycle Cost (no constraints) NREL first provided this service to Frito Lay North America. We have been working with the EPA climate leaders and tracking every one of our 34 plants on how we're doing.  Since 2000 we've decreased electricity by 21 percent, water by 35 percent and fuels by 24 percent.  But as the saying goes, you can’t save yourself rich and we asked NREL to evaluate renewable energy opportunities at 7 plants. This figure shows the results of this study, which is just minimizing life cycle cost without any percent renewable energy constraint. There are two bars for each plant. The first bar is the basecase and the dark grey is electric and the light grey is natural gas. The second bar for each plant is the Renewable Energy Case where some of the conventional energy use has been replaced with renewable energy. Biomass and solar thermal are very visible in the chart but there are other measures which are also in the solution but two small to see. NREL first provided this service to Frito Lay North America. We have been working with the EPA climate leaders and tracking every one of our 34 plants on how we're doing.  Since 2000 we've decreased electricity by 21 percent, water by 35 percent and fuels by 24 percent.  But as the saying goes, you can’t save yourself rich and we asked NREL to evaluate renewable energy opportunities at 7 plants. This figure shows the results of this study, which is just minimizing life cycle cost without any percent renewable energy constraint. There are two bars for each plant. The first bar is the basecase and the dark grey is electric and the light grey is natural gas. The second bar for each plant is the Renewable Energy Case where some of the conventional energy use has been replaced with renewable energy. Biomass and solar thermal are very visible in the chart but there are other measures which are also in the solution but two small to see.

41. 41 Frito Lay North AmericaSolar Thermal at Sunchips Plant Modesto CA I’d like to elaborate on some of the renewable energy projects that we are doing on our facilities. We have five large distribution centers in California that are using photovoltaic cells. And these photos are of a solar thermal plant which we are just completing in Modesto CA. There are five acres of solar concentrators, 54,000 square feet of concave mirrors, to superheat pressurized water to over 500 degrees. We use the steam from that to cook the oil to make SUNCHIPS. NREL provided some technical assistance to this project by doing an independent savings estimate and we’d like to keep them involved as we make sure we’re getting the best performance that we can out of the system.   I’d like to elaborate on some of the renewable energy projects that we are doing on our facilities. We have five large distribution centers in California that are using photovoltaic cells. And these photos are of a solar thermal plant which we are just completing in Modesto CA. There are five acres of solar concentrators, 54,000 square feet of concave mirrors, to superheat pressurized water to over 500 degrees. We use the steam from that to cook the oil to make SUNCHIPS. NREL provided some technical assistance to this project by doing an independent savings estimate and we’d like to keep them involved as we make sure we’re getting the best performance that we can out of the system.  

42. 42 REO Example: Frito Lay North AmericaMinimum Life Cycle Cost (Net Zero constraint) Then we asked NREL to add the constraint of net zero utility energy use and we came up with a different solution. Still lots of boimass and solar thermal but now you can see big wind energy in the solution. Building measures such as daylighting and solar ventilation air preheating are also in the solution but the building loads are so small compared to the industrial process that they don’t show up in this graph of annual energy delivery.Then we asked NREL to add the constraint of net zero utility energy use and we came up with a different solution. Still lots of boimass and solar thermal but now you can see big wind energy in the solution. Building measures such as daylighting and solar ventilation air preheating are also in the solution but the building loads are so small compared to the industrial process that they don’t show up in this graph of annual energy delivery.

43. 43 On Nov 15 2007 Frito Lay announced our plans to take that plant to Net Zero, and we plan to do so through a combination of solar thermal and biomass energy. On Nov 15 2007 Frito Lay announced our plans to take that plant to Net Zero, and we plan to do so through a combination of solar thermal and biomass energy.

44. 44 REO Example: Frito Lay Optimization for Seven Manufacturing PlantsConstraint: Net Zero Here are the sizes of each renewable energy component corresponding to the net zero solution for each plant. The Photovoltaics are totally driven by incentives. In Arizona there is 200 kW limit on the incentive so that’s the optimal size for Plant #1. In California there is a 1000 kW limit and you can see that Plants 4 and 5 are close to 1000 kW for that reason. The fact that they are not exactly 1000 shows you how much slop is in the optimization algorithm. Since we use a lot of process steam, solar thermal parabolic troughs and biomass turned out to be the most economical way for us to get to net zero for almost all of these plants. Here are the sizes of each renewable energy component corresponding to the net zero solution for each plant. The Photovoltaics are totally driven by incentives. In Arizona there is 200 kW limit on the incentive so that’s the optimal size for Plant #1. In California there is a 1000 kW limit and you can see that Plants 4 and 5 are close to 1000 kW for that reason. The fact that they are not exactly 1000 shows you how much slop is in the optimization algorithm. Since we use a lot of process steam, solar thermal parabolic troughs and biomass turned out to be the most economical way for us to get to net zero for almost all of these plants.

45. 45

46. 46 REO Example: Net Zero ZooNational Zoological Park (NZP) and Conservation Research Center (CRC), Washington DC

47. 47 USCG FacilityDiamond Head, HIwith incentives

48. 48 31 DOE Sites This graph shows the basecase and net zero life cycle cost totalled up over a 25 year analysis period. In all cases the net zero costs more than the basecase. But what is surprising to me is how close they are. It’s only about 20% more expensive to go net zero according to these estimates.This graph shows the basecase and net zero life cycle cost totalled up over a 25 year analysis period. In all cases the net zero costs more than the basecase. But what is surprising to me is how close they are. It’s only about 20% more expensive to go net zero according to these estimates.

49. 49 REO Example: Minimize Life Cycle CostUS Navy San Nicolas Island CA I thought you would be interested in this island example where the renewables would displace diesel fuel barged in from Los Angeles. Wind Energy is a big part of the solution but notice how these other renewable energy technologies can serve their loads at a lower cost, such as daylighting for example. There was no set goal regarding percent of renewables in this example so you can see there is still a lot of JP5 (diesel fuel) in the renewable energy case. Of the $23 million dollar investment to implement this solution, about $10million was associated with the battery plant. So we also evaluated a case without batteries that still shows substantial reductions in fuel use, about half in fact. The reason the total amount of energy is not the same in all cases is due to the fact that the renewables do not involve waste heat from the generator power plant, which is where most of the basecase fuel energy goes unfortunately. I thought you would be interested in this island example where the renewables would displace diesel fuel barged in from Los Angeles. Wind Energy is a big part of the solution but notice how these other renewable energy technologies can serve their loads at a lower cost, such as daylighting for example. There was no set goal regarding percent of renewables in this example so you can see there is still a lot of JP5 (diesel fuel) in the renewable energy case. Of the $23 million dollar investment to implement this solution, about $10million was associated with the battery plant. So we also evaluated a case without batteries that still shows substantial reductions in fuel use, about half in fact. The reason the total amount of energy is not the same in all cases is due to the fact that the renewables do not involve waste heat from the generator power plant, which is where most of the basecase fuel energy goes unfortunately.

50. 50 119 Land Ports of Entry

51. 51 New: Monthly REO (example) Consider 2,200,000 sf office building, 12 floors Washington DC Climate, Utility Rates, Incentives

52. 52 Photovoltaics Details

53. 53

54. 54 Monthly REO Executive Summary

55. 55 It's so much easier to suggest solutions when you don't know too much about the problem.  - Malcolm Forbes Thank You!