Walt Musial Leader-Offshore Projects National Renewable Energy Laboratory walter_musial@nrel

1. Walt MusialLeader-Offshore ProjectsNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywalter_musial@nrel.gov Offshore Wind DOE Peer Review May 10, 2006 Golden, CO

2. DOE Offshore Wind Program History

3. Current Status of Offshore Industry • Offshore 804-MW out of over 60,000- MW world-wide – less than 2% • Offshore has affected current onshore systems • Offshore will continue to influence European markets.

4. Predicted Growth of German Wind Energy Markets http://www.hamburg-messe.de/Scripte/allgemein_Info/Bestellung_DEWI-Studie/Studie_WindEnergy_en.htm?menu=Visitor

5. Why Offshore Wind in the US? Land-based wind sites are not close to coastal load centers Load centers are close to offshore wind sites Two market approach is needed U.S. Wind Resource US Population Concentration % area class 3 or above Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind Graphic Credit: GE Energy

6. U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Opportunity U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Resource U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Resource Not Yet Assessed

7. Current 0-5nm excluded 5-20nm 67% exclusion 20-50nm 33% exclusion Alaska and Hawaii not included SC to Mexico excluded Class 4 not included No state boundaries Updates in progress New maps by AWS Truewind Exclusions not assumed Resource by 10-m depths All States (except FL, AL) State boundaries Distance from Shore 0-3nm – State waters 3-6nm – MMS/State zone 6-12nm – MMS High Viewshed 12-50nm – Low Viewshed Offshore Resources Assumptions

8. Wind Energy Cost Trends 1981: 40 cents/kWh • Increased Turbine Size • R&D Advances • Manufacturing Improvements 2006: 9.5 cents/kWh • Multi-megawatt Turbines • High reliability systems • Infrastructure Improvements Land-based Offshore 2014: 5 cents/kWh 2006: 4 - 6 cents/kWh 2012: 3.6 cents/kWh

9. Coastal Energy Prices Are Higher with no Significant Indigenous Sources

10. DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach DOE Offshore Wind Energy Program European Wind Energy Experience Offshore Industry

11. Offshore Oil and Gas Industry: The Link to Offshore Wind Energy

12. Offshore Industry Collaborations are Essential • MMS regulatory authority • Offshore industry needs to diversify • IEC insufficient for structural certification • Infrastructure owned by offshore industry • 50 years of offshore experience

13. Joint Activities with Offshore Industry Minerals Management Service • DOE/MMS Memorandum of Understanding • Advisory Relationships Established • Proposed Rulemaking Comments • Scoping Meetings – Upcoming

14. Joint Activities with Offshore Industry • Joint Industry Project • Purpose: Determine requirements for offshore safety and certification. • Participants: US Offshore Wind Developers, Offshore construction, DOE, MMS • Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) • Wind Session 150 attended • Invited for 2007 • High level of interest • SeaCon Studies

15. DOE/NREL Offshore Wind Energy Program: Approach DOE Offshore Wind Energy Program European Wind Energy Experience Offshore Industry

16. European Collaborations • NREL/RISO C0-Operating Agents for New International Energy Agency Offshore Annex – XXIII. • Eight Active Countries

17. OC3 Slide of results

18. Horns Rev- Corner turbine enhancements? Wind Direction Offshore array modeling and analysis can open new siting options both offshore and onshore

19. Offshore Wind Cost Elements Offshore turbine 33% of the life cycle cost vs. 59% onshore derived from NREL cost model and CA-OWEE report 2001 Most of an offshore wind project will come from offshore industry engineering, construction and support services

20. Why Offshore Turbines Will Get Bigger 1 Substructure Energy per Area Installation Operation and Maintenance Grid and Electrical Infrastructure Turbine Costs High capacity offshore infrastructure enables larger machines.

21. Deep Water Wind Turbine Development Offshore Wind Technology Development Path 90.1 GW 183.2 GW >500 GW Current Technology 4 to 18 meters depth up to 14 km from shore

22. Offshore Technology Pathway Strategy (Subcontracts) Laboratory SeaCon

23. Simplify

25. Sea-BasedConcept Studies (SeaCon) • DOE/NREL sponsored studies underway: Objectives: • Use offshore O&G experience - form partnerships • Define requirements for infrastructure and technology • Narrow focus on best technology options • Establish basis for test bed and system development

26. SeaCon Studies Connectivity

27. Transitional Depth Foundations 30-m to 60-m Depths 200 GW potential Tripod Tube Steel Spaceframe, Jacket, or Truss Talisman Energy Concept Guyed Tube Suction Bucket

28. Floating Foundations >60-m Depths >500 GW potential Concept Marine Associates Concrete TLP Dutch tri-floater Barge Spar Mono-hull TLP SWAY

29. Offshore Blade Cost is Low Relative to Total Project • All of the energy • Most of the loads • 4% of the cost Cost of Energy Can we afford more expensive rotors?

30. Regulatory and Environmental • Drivers for first offshore wind projects in US. • New regulatory paradigm in process at MMS • Environmental basis • European experience • Cape Wind DEIS • Onshore experience • No major environmental impacts found • Public acceptance – reservations due to uncertainty and viewshed

31. Summary • Two market approach for wind • Offshore: European driven • U.S. resource potential near 1000-GW • Near term US offshore experience needed • Environmental, regulatory, and public perceptions are drivers in US. • Further R&D is necessary to lower costs • Offshore O&G industry experience is essential Wind can potentially supply 20% of electric energy in United States