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Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire

Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire. Introduction. Place of report in the session Reporter: a US Jewish gay anti-imperialist … in Holland Reporter’s limits: not an economist not an expert on any of these countries. Overview of report.

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Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire

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  1. Imperialism, globalization in crisis and Obama’s Middle Eastern empire

  2. Introduction • Place of report in the session • Reporter: • a US • Jewish • gay • anti-imperialist • … in Holland • Reporter’s limits: • not an economist • not an expert on any of these countries

  3. Overview of report I. Imperialism: Lenin’s classic theory II. Neoliberal globalization III. Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’ IV. From Bush II to Obama: in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Palestine

  4. I. Imperialism: Lenin’s theory The Marxist understanding of imperialism before Lenin • Marx and Engels: Ireland, Poland, Algeria and India • German social democracy: ‘not a man, not a penny’ • Cracks in the consensus: the Moroccan crisis (1911)‏ • An outdated vision of capitalism: revisionism and Hilferding’s Finance Capital • Luxemburg’s The Accumulation of Capital • The shock of 1914

  5. Basics of Lenin’s theory (from a non-economist!)‏ • Laissez-faire capitalism and monopoly capitalism • Uneven development and export of capital • Competition for raw materials • The division of the planet: colonial empires • Spheres of influence and semi-colonies

  6. Colonial empires 1914

  7. (Official) division of the world PERCENTAGE OF TERRITORY BELONGING TO THE EUROPEAN COLONIAL POWERS (including the United States)‏ 1876 1900 Increase or decrease Africa.......... 10.8 90.4 +79.6 Polynesia.... 56.8 98.9 +42.1 Asia............ 51.5 56.6 +5.1 Australia..... 100.0 100.0 — America...... 27.5 27.2 -0.3

  8. (Unofficial) control of the world DISTRIBUTION (APPROXIMATE) OF FOREIGN CAPITAL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE (circa 1910)‏ Britain France Germany Total (in billions of German marks) Europe.......... 4 23 18 45 America.......... 37 4 10 51 Asia, Africa, and Australia...... 29 8 7 44 Total........ 70 35 35 140

  9. Imperialism, 1916-1982 1914-20 Re-division: German and Ottoman possessions become British, French, Italian, Japanese and US 1936-45 Failed German challenge to re-division; Italy and Japan lose their colonial possessions 1947/1956 Truman Doctrine and Suez crisis mark replacement of British by US hegemony 1949 Chinese revolution 1955 Bandung: India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. gain autonomy 1975 US defeat in Vietnam 1979/1980/1982 Thatcher elected; Reagan elected; debt crisis

  10. II. Neoliberal globalization Is imperialism still a relevant framework to analyze the post-1979 world economy? Claudio Katz’s arguments: • Growth of inequality: dominant and dependent countries • Terms of trade • Extraction of financial resources • Transfer of industrial profits • Loss of political autonomy

  11. Distribution of wealth (2005)‏ % world pop.% world GDPGDP per cap. Dominant 14% 78% $ 31,000 countries Dependent 80% 19% $ 1,410 countries (Figures from CADTM)‏

  12. Debt: the poor fund the rich Marshall Plan aid to Europe, post-WW2: $ 90 billion Debt payments from dependent to dominant countries, 1980-2004: $5300 billion Number of total Marshall Plans from poor to rich: 59

  13. Terms of trade and repatriation of profits Ratio of prices between dependent country exports and dependent country imports: 1980 100 2002 48 Net repatriation of profits from dependent countries by multinational corporations, 1998-2002: $ 334 billion

  14. Multinationals: monopoly finance capitalSelected GDP of countries and revenues of multinational corporations Multinationals (2010/11, $ billion)‏ 1. Wal-Mart $ 422 2. Exxon Mobil 370 3. Shell 368 4. BP 297 5. Sinopec 290 6. Toyota 242 7. PetroChina 222 8. Total 213 9. Chevron 205 10. Japan Post 201 Countries (IMF, 2010, $ billion)‏ 1. US $ 14,658 2. China 5,878 5. France 2,582 7. Brazil 2,090 10. India 1,538 12. Spain 1,410 16. Netherlands 869 Egypt 218 Israel 213 Iraq 82 Afghanistan 15

  15. Autonomy lost - and found? • IMF/World Bank/WTO: one dollar, one vote • ‘Structural adjustment’ and ‘conditionality’ • Consequences for social spending and debt repayment • Consequences for negotiating positions • Beyond dependence: China, Brazil, India(?) • Signs of change: Doha, Bancosur(?)

  16. III. Armed globalization and the ‘war on terror’ • Militarism: response to — and cause of — disintegration of peripheral states (Katz)‏ • Role of US: * Enforcer of neoliberal world order * Sole superpower: 50%+ of global military spending * Military-industrial complex * Military supremacy & inter-imperialist rivalries * Oil: Latin America and the Middle East • Tools: ‘Coalitions of the willing’, NATO and UN

  17. The post-1991 world order The first US invasion of Iraq (1991): a decisive moment (Achcar)‏ • US military return to Gulf region (after 1962 withdrawal)‏ • Demonstration of superior US military technology • Network of bases and alliances

  18. 9/11: Bush’s opportunity The intervention in Afghanistan and the US presence in Central Asia

  19. IV. The empire and Obama • A time of deepening crisis • In Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Palestine • Factors in imperial politics in Mideast: • Oil • Geopolitics • Alliance with Zionism • ‘Clash of civilizations’ • Introduction: imperialism and globalization in the Islamic world

  20. Glory of the Islamic world

  21. Ottomans (and Safavids)

  22. British and French

  23. US imperialism 1933 US contract with Saudi king 1956 Suez crisis 1967 & 1973 US backs Israel 1979 Iran revolution; USSR invades Afghanistan 1989 USSR leaves Afghanistan 1991 First US invasion of Iraq 2001 9/11; US invasion of Afghanistan 2003-? US invasion and occupation of Iraq 2008 Descent into global slump 2010/1 Arab revolutions; intervention in Libya

  24. Lessons of Middle Eastern history • Depth of anti-imperialism • Oil, imperialism and populism • Vital interests: converging and contradictory • ‘The Arab despotic exception’

  25. Oil: proven reserves (2010)‏ RankCountryReserves (bil. bbp)% of total • Saudi Arabia 265 19 • Canada 175 13 • Iran 138 10 • Iraq 115 8 • Kuwait 104 8 • United Arab Emirates 98 7 • Venezuela 98 7 • Russia 74 5 • Libya 47 3 • Nigeria 38 3

  26. Oil: reserves by region

  27. Oil: control Control over oil depends less on legal ownership than on extraction and refining technology and profit-sharing 1912 Iraq: Turkish Petroleum Company founded (later Iraq Petroleum Company, European consortium)‏ 1933 Saudi Arabia: Agreement with Standard Oil (US)‏ 1951 Iran: Parliament nationalizes oil 1954 Iran: After coup, shah signs Consortium Agreement with Western companies 1972 Iraq: Ba’athist regime nationalizes oil 1973 OPEC boycott of US and Netherlands 2007 Iraq: Hydrocarbon law introduced in parliament

  28. Israel: imperial liability, imperial asset • Liability • Spark of revolutions (1952 and after)‏ • Major factor in legitimacy of independent-minded fundamentalism (Hamas, Hezbollah)‏ • Cost ($3 billion per year and trade benefits)‏ • A loose cannon • Asset • A rock-solid ally • Source of expertise in spying, assassination, torture • A useful proxy for intervention (in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq…)‏ • World’s fourth-largest military • … at a fraction of the cost of US forces

  29. The clash of barbarisms • Islam and Arab identity • The diversity of Islam: Sunni centre and Shia crescent • Petty bourgeoisie and fundamentalism • The diversity of fundamentalism: pro-imperial, anti-‘crusader’ and undecided • Women and LGBTs • Fundamentalism: a deadly enemy • ‘March separately, strike together’ • The Arab revolutions: fundamentalism sidelined

  30. Iraq • Oil (fourth largest proven reserves)‏ • Resistance: 1920s, 1958, Ba’athism • ‘A new Middle East’ • US hegemony: challenge to Russia, China … France • US power, Iranian influence: clash ahead? • Obama’s ‘withdrawal’ • Ongoing resistance and solidarity

  31. Afghanistan • No oil • Resistance: 19th century (Durand Line, 1893), 1979, Taliban • Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan • State-building?: the US (‘Enduring Freedom’), NATO (ISAF) and the UN • Obama’s war • A difficult solidarity

  32. Arab revolutions/intervention in Libya • An end to the ‘Arab despotic exception’? • Tunisia: the spark • Egypt: the central country (since 1952) • Imperialism threatened (Bahrain) or marginalized (Syria) • A very unfinished process (tomorrow) • Libya: oil (a bit), history of resistance (since 1911), shifting relation to imperialism • The right to assistance - and the danger of subordination

  33. Palestine • No oil • Resistance: 1929, 1936, fedayeen, Intifadas (1987 & 2000)‏ • Fatah, Hamas … and the left • The impossible second state • The assault on Gaza (2008)‏ • Obama and the ‘peace process’ • Towards a new strategy?

  34. Palestine: the impossible second state

  35. Resistance and solidarity • The legitimacy of resistance • The balance of military forces • Our globalization: linking civil societies • Fundamentalism and democracy, capital and labour • Solidarity: a political battle • Solidarity: concrete tasks

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