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Gdansk, 7 April 2014. Report by Hungarian unions affiliate d to i ndustri A ll Europe. Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union (Miners & Light industry) Building, Wood and Building Material Workers' Unions (Builders) MOL Miners' Union / Oil & Gas (MOL)
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Report by HungarianunionsaffiliatedtoindustriAll Europe • Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union (Miners & Light industry) • Building, Wood and Building Material Workers' Unions (Builders) • MOL Miners' Union / Oil & Gas (MOL) • Metalworkers' Trade Union Federation (Metal) • Hungarian Chemical, Energy and Allied Workers' Unions (Chemical) • United Federation of Workers' Trade Union of Electricity (Electricity)
Elections • 6 April 2014 • oneroundsystem – tworoundbefore • thereare no practicalnumbers • Hungariancitizensnotresidingin Hungary mayvotefortheparty-list • New constituencyborders, reducednumber of constituencies (from 176 to 106), 93 seatsformparty-list; alltogether 186 seats less thanbefore
Elections • National list: forconstituencyseatsatleast 500 signaturesareneeded. A nationallistcan be setupbythepartyhavingsetcandidatesinatleast 27 constituencies (out of the 106) inatleast 9 counties (out of 19) and Budapest. Everycitizenmaysupportcandidates of severalparties. • Mandateswill be distributedamongcandidateorganizationsabovethethreshold (5% incase of one-party-list, and 10% incase of twoparties' jointlist, 15% incase of threeor more parties' jointlist and andminorityrepresentativesabove 5% thersholdrespectively). • Minorities, thatwillnotreachthe 5% threshold (out of allminority-listvotes, not out of allvotes) orwillnotgetatleastoneseat, will be abletosend a minorityspokesmantothe National Assembly from 2014, who has right onlytospeakbutnottovote.
Results of thepreliminarypoll: • Number of partiesrunningcandidatesintheelection : 31 • 1707 canndidates – number of candidates has significantlyincreased • The presentgoverningconservativeparty Fidesz-KDNP …. mandates • The oppositionleague (MSZP, DK, Együtt-PM) • Jobbik – a right wingexstremistparty • LMP – a liberal, greenparty
Changing figures of GDP %compared with the same period of the previous year
2014: economiccourseaccordingtothebudgetact The main macroeconomicfactorsaccordingtothevariousforecasts, (%)
EUR/HUF rate Beforetheelections 2014 – 308,62 Beforetheelections 2010 – 261,60 difference: 19 % (~50 HUF)
Development of inflation Rezsicsökkentés Forrás: KSH
Development of industrialproductioncomparedtothesameperiodofthepreviousyear
Employmentinthenationaleconomy(figuresinthousands) Forrás: KSH
Structure of thechangesinemployment Forrás: KSH Ennyivel lett több állás 2012-2013, ezer fő
Development of theaveragegrosswage of employedworkers a nemzetgazdaságban
The main difficulty is that – because of somestructuralproblems – Hungary is laggingbehindintheregionregardingeconomicdevelopmentonthemiddlerunaccordingtothepresent market expectations Expectedeconomicgrowth(FocusEconomics, September 2013; %) CEE Min-Max (Mo. nélkül) CEE átlag (Mo. nélkül) Magyarország Előrejelzés Forrás: Focus Economics, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária
Structuralproblem: theinvestmentrate is thelowestin Hungary intheregion Investmentinproportionto GDP (%) * A 2014. évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint a beruházás 2014-ben 5,9%-kal nő. Elkezdődik a felzárkózás. Forrás: Eurostat, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária
Structuralproblem: credit activity has beenthelowestintheregionforthelast 4 yearsnow Net credit outplacementfromthebankstotheprivatesector (seasonallyadjusted, inproportionto GDP %) Forrás: Nemzeti Bankok CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária
Statistics and structure of taxrevenueofthecentralbudget (accordingtolaw) • VAT – 27%, incometax 16 % foreveryone, companytax 10% (upto 500 MHUF, over this income19%) Forrás: NGM, ÁSZ *Költségvetési előirányzat
Structuralproblem: totalexpenditure of thestatebudget is stillhighcomparedtotheregion Gross sum of thebudgetexpenditures (inproportionto GDP %) Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés 2012-2013-ra
Structuralproblem: thestatedebtin Hungary is stillthehighestintheregionwhichcausesvulnerability The consolidatedstatedebt (inproportionto GDP %) 81,0 Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés 2012-2013-ra; * A 2014.évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint 2014végére 76,4% várható
Debtstockinproportionto GDP % Forrás: NGM, Eurostat, Európai Bizottság
Contractedcompetitivenessranking 2008-2013 • Hungary has beenfallingbehindcomparedtotheVisegradcountriesfrom 2008 • The situation of Hungary has beensimilartotheone of theMediterraneancountries
Actual TU developments Reportoncollectivebargaining: • AgreementinthePermanentConsultation Forum (VKF): grosswageincrease 3,5 %, qualified minimum wage: 118.000 HUF, minimum wage 101.500 HUF • Recommendationforsubsectors, electricity, mining, industry, companyorcompanylevelagreements • Retaining and recruitingmembers • Training, education (projects) • Inclusion of youthworkers, restartingdualvocationaltraining • Closeco-operation of industrial trade unions (metalworkers, mining, construction, typography, meattrade). Meeting of operativebodieson 27 March. • The newconfederation MSZSZ has beenofficiallyregistered.
Actual TU developments Project onNOxoccupationalexposurelimits and use of chemicalsinmining EVDSZ-LIGA project Sectoralsocialdialogueafterthecrisis Quality of collectiveagreementsgettingweaker, conditionsofconcludingagreementsgettingworse Changing of employers’ behaviour, bargaininggetting more difficult Consequences of IndustriAllconferencein Madrid, tasksregardingthe EU Parliamentelections
Demonstration of minerson 29 January 2014 We may need international support in the future Demands: • Occupational pension for open pit miners • Average earning calculation • Disabled category III disability benefits for miners
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