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Monetary Policy Summary of 2007 and Looking Ahead to 2008

Monetary Policy Summary of 2007 and Looking Ahead to 2008. January 2008. Inflation in Israel and around the world. Inflation in the last 12 months and the inflation targets, 1997−2007. The Bank of Israel interest rate, actual inflation,* and inflation expectations,** 2004-08. Percent.

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Monetary Policy Summary of 2007 and Looking Ahead to 2008

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  1. Monetary PolicySummary of 2007andLooking Ahead to 2008 January 2008

  2. Inflation in Israel and around the world

  3. Inflation in the last 12 months and the inflation targets, 1997−2007

  4. The Bank of Israel interest rate, actual inflation,* and inflation expectations,** 2004-08 Percent * In previous 12months. ** For next 12 months. SOURCE: Bank of Israel Monetary Department.

  5. Inflation in previous 12 months (to November 2007) in Israel and selected emerging markets and advanced economies Percent Advanced economies Emerging markets

  6. The CPI, the Energy Price Index, and the Basic Foods Price Index *(rate of change in previous 12 months, to November 2007) Percent Energy Price Index Index of Basic Food Prices CPI * Basic foods—Bread, cereals and baked goods, fats and margarine.

  7. The CPI, and the index excluding energy and basic food prices(rate of change over previous 12 months, to November 2007) Percent CPI CPI excluding energy and basic food prices * Basic foods—Bread, cereals and baked goods (?), fats and margarine. .

  8. Inflation expectations based on the market and forecasters predictions

  9. Inflation in 12 previous months, inflation targets, and one-year inflation expectations based on the market, 1997─2007 Limit of inflation target CPI Inflation expectations

  10. Long-term inflation expectations (average of ten to twelve years forward, January 2003 to December 2007)

  11. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months based on the capital market and forecasters’ predictions Percent SOURCE:Bank of Israel Monetary Department.

  12. The Exchange Rate

  13. The exchange rate1 January 2001 to 8 January 2008

  14. The real exchange rate vis-à-vis Israel’s trading partners(January 1997─December 2007*) Percent 124.8 • A rise in the index indicates depreciation. • The figure for December 2007 is calculated from spot exchange rates known for the half-month, our forecast CPI from the monthly model, and an extrapolation of inflation in the countries whose currencies are in the currency basket. SOURCE: IFS data. August−December 2007 figures calculated by Bank of Israel.

  15. The current account of the balance of payments(percent of GDP in annual terms, 1995─2007*) Percent of GDP * Estimate SOURCE: Balance of payments, Central Bureau of Statistics.

  16. Nonresidents’ investments in Israel (percent of GDP, 2000─07*) Percent of GDP 8,092 5,058 450 6,871 4,138 1,812 14,302 75 723 5,062 4,792 9,700 3,626 3,822 2,041 1,767 Israelis’ investments abroad(percent of GDP, 2000─07*) Percent of GDP 8,956 5,900 8,244 14,399 2,149 2,381 3,154 2,708 6,100 3,336 1,623 2,065 4,544 2,930 688 982 * Forecast by the Bank of Israel Foreign Exchange Activity Department. SOURCE: Balance of payments, Central Bureau and Statistics.

  17. The CPI, the housing index, and the NIS/$ exchange rate (rate of change in previous 12 months)

  18. Looking ahead

  19. Inflation forecasts for 2008 (at end of 2007) • Forecasters—2.7 percent (2.0─3.7 percent) • Capital market—1.6 percent • BoI Companies Survey—2.7 percent (74 percent of respondents believe that we will meet the inflation target) The Bank of Israel models • According to both models, at the current level of the exchange rate the current interest rate environment is consistent with inflation of 2 percent at the end of 2008

  20. Actual inflation and fan chart of expected inflation, 2006─2009(Rate of cumulative price increases in previous 4 quarters) Percent 30% 38% 32% *The fan covers 66 percent of the distribution of expected inflation. SOURCE: Bank of Israel Monetary Department.

  21. Thank you

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