Ana Iglesias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010

1. Adaptation: managing the unavoidableRoundtable 3: Can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies? Ana Iglesias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010 Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010 Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)

2. 1 key issue can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies? 2 challenges • Speak a common language (prioritise reasons for concern) • Improve dialogue between science, policy and society (define how, lessons from EU initiatives, measures that make sense today and in the future) (academic point of vies, some thoughts and some examples)

3. Reasons for concern Financial crisis, terror, inequality, degradation of the environment, … Common element: global issues, what happens in one place has an influence on what happens in another place

4. Food importers are buying agricultural land of poor countries Defining the baseline is difficult

5. High risk, highly certain Medium risk, some uncertainty Possible opportunity, if management is adequate “The adaptation gap” Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to climate?

6. Example 1Changes in land productivity (Iglesias et al 2007; 2010) HadCM3A2 HadCM3B2 We do not know how our world would be like in the future

7. Complexity: need to understand local vulnerabilities

8. What might a low GHG diet look like?(Source: T. Garnett, 2009) • Not overeating • Much less meat and dairy • Seasonal field grown foods • Not eating certain foods • Reducing dependence on cold chain • Wasting less • Efficient cooking • Redefining quality

9. 6 Evaluation criteria • Mitigation potential • Externalities • Barriers to implementation (tech., ec., social) • Interest to farmers • May be included in CAP? • Incentives? 6 Measures with high mitigation potential • Catch crops • Reduced tillage • Use crop residues • Optimising fertiliser use • Increase wood crops • Optimal pasture renewal Source: PICCMAT (6th FP EU) 10

10. Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage 120 Population (millions) 80 40 0 2020 2050 2080 Example 2: Water University of Southampton 11

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14. Example 3: Human displacement http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html

15. Improve dialogue science, policy, society Example 4: Lessons from EU initiatives (EC White paper on adaptation; EU funded research) 16

16. Axis 1 • Farm modernization • Restoring & prevention • Farm advisory services • Training Axis 2 • Agri-env measures • Payments linked to WFD Axis 3 • Diversification into non-agricultural activities Leader Role of RD (CAP) A flexible framework

17. natural water resources regulation infrastructure non-conventional resources Policy water availability Policy nature non-nature uses essential productive Policy Role of WFD Policy water recycling Source: Garrote et al., 2010

18. Example 4: Evaluation (and valuation) of policy action (Iglesias et al., 2010) HadCM3/HIRHAMB2 scenario, 2071-2100, (% yield change) (1) Emphasis on water resources protection and urban development (2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private) (3) Emphasis on agricultural production and rural development

19. Reasons for concern when we think about climate change Consequences are too unequal Uncertainty Deciding on the solutions that are appropriate (the how issue)

20. thank you ana.iglesias@upm.es Presentation made at the: EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010 Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010 Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)