Brandon Lagerquist Northshore School District Paul Stern Washington State University

1. Predicting Success in Math: The relationship between high school courses and remedial math in college Brandon Lagerquist Northshore School District Paul Stern Washington State University Social & Economic Sciences Research Center March 26, 2009

2. Presentation Outline • Background – why study relationship between high school math and college remediation? • Math Placement and First College Enrollment in Math • Predicting the Need for Pre-College Math • Exploring Differences between Students at 2-Year and 4-Year Colleges • Pre-College Needs of Students who took Higher Levels of Math • Implications and future research

3. Background • Why is remedial math in college an important topic? • it is one indicator of preparedness. • need for remediation strains budgets. • need for remediation costs time and causes frustration. • need for remediation is a barrier to success.

4. Pre-College Math is a Barrier to Degree/Certificate Completion

5. Study Sample(N=1,219) • Graduated from high school in 2004 or 2005 • Enrolled in district at least 3 years and took the WASL • Not enrolled in the ELL program • Enrolled at a public college and information available about readiness for college-level math or English

6. Data Sources • High school transcript, assessment, and demographic information • Higher education enrollment and remediation data from the Graduate Follow up Study (GFS) and National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) • Enrollment & assessment data from Washington’s public colleges and universities • Placement test results, math enrollments, and math grades from Bellevue, Cascadia, and Shoreline Community Colleges.

7. Definition of “College Ready” in Math: 2-Year Colleges • Bellevue, Cascadia, & Shoreline College: College-readiness was determined by examining the math placement test results, the level of first enrollment, and/or the grade earned in the first math class. (N=617) • Other 2-Year College: A student was college-ready if they enrolled in a college-level math course at a community college without first taking a remedial course. (N=104)

8. Definition of “College Ready” in Math: 4-Year Colleges • Washington Public 4-Year College: A student was college-ready if they received a score on the Math Placement Test that placed them into a college level course, and if they were not identified on the Graduate Follow up Study as having enrolled in a remedial course. (N=498)

9. College Readiness by Type of College

10. Distribution of Highest Math Course Passed

11. Math Placement and First College Enrollment in Math • To what extent did students who placed into pre-college math at a CTC defer enrollment in math until after their first year? • How many and which students placed into college-level math but choose to start at the pre-college level? • How many and which students placed into pre-college but enrolled at the college level?

12. Placement & Enrollment of Local Community College Students

13. Immediate or Deferred Enrollment?

14. Placement and Level of Course Enrolled in

15. Focus on Students with No Math Information

16. Placement and Level of Course Enrolled in

17. Predicting the Need for Pre-College Math • Does a student’s course-taking history predict whether they will need to take pre-college or “remedial” courses? • Does the timing of high school coursework influence the need for remedial instruction? • Does a student’s grades in math predict whether they will need to take remedial math? • How does performance on the math WASL relate to the likelihood that a student will be ready for college level coursework?

18. College Readiness by Type of College

19. College Readiness by Highest Course Passed

20. College Readiness by Timing of Highest Course

21. College Readiness by Grades in Math

22. College Readiness by Math WASL Performance

23. Percent of Graduates who were College Ready in Math by High School (Excluding Alternative Schools) 100% 80% 56% 60% 48% 47% 40% 20% 0% A B C (N=388) (N=474) (N=330) College Readiness by High School

24. Findings from Regression on Math College Readiness • Logistic regression with an R2 value of 48% • Highest level math course (most important) • Math WASL Score • High School Math GPA • Gender (Males more likely) • Taking a math course in the senior year • Non-significant variables: High school, ethnicity, level of college enrollment, and SPED

25. Differences between 2-Year and 4-Year College Students • What are the differences in college readiness rates by student characteristics and math background between students at two-year colleges and at four-year colleges?

26. Comparing 2-Year and 4-Year College Readiness

27. College Ready Populations Among Two- and Four-Year Students 2-year Students 4-year Students 100% 78% 80% 74% 73% 72% 70% 69% 68% 63% 60% 60% 51% 41% 41% 37% 36% 40% 35% 34% 31% 30% 20% 0% NSD Male Female White Trad Asian A B C Total Minority Gender Race/Ethnicity High School Comparisons by Demographic Characteristics

28. Comparisons by Math Background

29. Pre-College Needs of “Higher Level Math” Students • Focusing on Calculus and Integrated 4 students, what can course grades, WASL math scores, placement test results, and course enrollments tell us about the pre-college needs of these students?

30. Overall College Readiness Rates in Math

31. College Enrollment Rates

32. College Readiness is a Function of Overall Preparation

33. Students are not choosing to enroll in a lower level class

34. Conclusions: Placement and Enrollment (Part 1) • Students who placed into pre-college math were more likely to wait a year or more (29%) before enrolling, than those who placed at the college level (18%). • Students who placed at the pre-college level and did not enroll in a math class were most likely to have stopped at or below Int. 2 and much more likely to have a D average or lower in math.

35. Conclusions: Placement and Enrollment (Part 2) • Students who placed at the college level and did not enroll in a math class were more likely than their peers to have stopped at Int. 4/Pre-Calculus and have a C average in math. • Students who placed at the college level and enrolled at the pre-college level were more likely than their peers to have stopped at Integrated 3/Algebra II.

36. Conclusions: Predictors of Remediation • The need for pre-college math can be explained by courses taken, WASL scores, and student grades. • Differences between high schools are most often a function of the above factors.

37. Conclusions: Two-Year and Four-Year Students • At two-year colleges, males and Asian Americans were more likely to be ready for college-level coursework than other groups. • Students attending four-year colleges enter with higher math skill levels than students attending two-year colleges.

38. Conclusions: Calculus and Integrated 4/Pre-Calc Students • Students with lower grades and lower WASL test scores were less likely to be college-ready than their peers with higher grades and higher test scores. • There is no evidence that students are placing into college level and making an independent choice to start at the pre-college level.

39. Conclusions • Integrated 4 is the key course for college-level math. • 281 students completed Integrated III as a junior and did not move on to Integrated IV as a senior. • how do we convince these students to take Integrated IV as a senior? (39% college ready who stopped at Int. 3 versus 80% college ready who stopped at Int. 4.) • But, would those students who stopped at Int. 3 be successful at Int. 4? What is the difference between a junior who takes Int. 3 and moves on to Int. 4 as a senior versus the student who takes Int. 3 as a junior and no math as a senior?

40. Research implications for counselors -- What our HS students need to know: • Passing the WASL is not enough -- math is a problem and barrier for many college students. • You need more than just Algebra II or Integrated 3 to have a high probability of moving directly into college level math. • Starting in college with pre-college math does not mean you can't go on to complete a degree. But it will slow you down in comparison to other students: it will cost you money and time. • Don't take a math class just to keep in practice - take a higher level math class to upgrade your skills and placement.

41. Research implications for faculty -- What our math instructors need to do: • High school faculty: Go back to college. • Take the placement test(s) used by your local college. • Sit in on courses that students coming out of your courses should matriculate into. • College faculty: Go back to high school. • Sit in courses that students coming into your courses should be coming from. • Participate in a professional learning community with a focus on your shared problem. Share… • Curriculum alignment • Effective instructional techniques & assessments

42. Contact Information Paul Stern Washington State University Social & Economic Sciences Research Center Puget Sound Division 360-576-6030 ext. 21 http://www.sesrc.wsu.edu/k12 sternpo@wsu.edu Brandon Lagerquist Northshore School District 425-408-7722 blagerquist@nsd.org

43. Acknowledgements • Funding for the preceding research was made possible in part due to grants from: • Washington Educational Research Association (WERA) • www.wera-web.org • Transition Math Project (TMP) • www.transitionmathproject.org