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Current Conditions in Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, August 13th, 2012

Current Conditions in Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, August 13th, 2012. Canada. Russia. Ukraine. Kazakhstan. Orenburg, Russia. USA. Spring Wheat. Spring Wheat. Spring Wheat. Winter Wheat/ Corn. Corn/ Soy. China. anomaly. anomaly. anomaly. India. anomaly.

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Current Conditions in Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, August 13th, 2012

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  1. Current Conditions in Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, August 13th, 2012 Canada Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Orenburg, Russia USA Spring Wheat Spring Wheat Spring Wheat Winter Wheat/ Corn Corn/ Soy China anomaly anomaly anomaly India anomaly Non Cropland Not shown anomaly Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal Current season crop development (2012) Becker-Reshef /Vermote UMD Average season development (2000-2011)

  2. Time Series of Depicting impact of drought conditions on croplands only in Northern Hemisphere, 2012 Crop condition depicted through NDVI anomalies on 1st day and 15th day of each month (May-Sept) Crops in development stages sensitive to drought conditions are highlighted in red text within each region

  3. Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, May 1st, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): wheat Europe: Wheat & Corn USA: Wheat Non Cropland Not shown China: Wheat, Corn & Soy • Highlights: • Drought in southern Ukraine affecting winter wheat • Drought in Spain affecting winter wheat Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  4. Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, May 15th, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): wheat Europe: Wheat & Corn USA: Wheat Non Cropland Not shown China: Wheat • Highlights: • US drought developing • Drought in Ukraine affecting winter wheat • Drought in Spain affecting winter wheat • Drought in Russia, Kazakhstan developing Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  5. Northern Hemisphere Crop Condition Anomaly, June 1st, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): wheat Europe: Wheat & Corn USA: Wheat Non Cropland Not shown China: Wheat, Corn & Soy • Highlights: • US drought developing • Drought in Ukraine affecting winter wheat • Drought in Spain affecting winter wheat • Drought in Russia, Kazakhstan during planting • Dry conditions in India during planting Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  6. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, June 15th, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): wheat Europe: Wheat & Corn USA: Wheat Non Cropland Not shown China: Wheat, Corn & Soy • Highlights: • US drought spreading and intensifying • Drought in Ukraine intensifying in the south • Drought in Russia, Kazakhstan intensifying • Dry conditions spread in India Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  7. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, July 1st, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): Wheat & Corn Canada: Wheat Europe: Corn USA: Corn & Soy Non Cropland Not shown China: Corn, soy , rice • Highlights: • US drought continues to spread and intensify affecting soy and corn • Drought in Ukraine intensifying in the south • Drought in Russia, Kazakhstan intensifying, affecting spring wheat and corn • Dry conditions continue in India Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  8. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, July 15th, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): Wheat & Corn Canada: Wheat Europe: Corn USA: Corn & Soy Non Cropland Not shown China: Corn, soy , rice • Highlights: • US drought continues to spread and intensify affecting corn and soy • Drought in Ukraine continues and spreading north • Drought in Russia, Kazakhstan intensifying, affecting spring wheat and corn • Dry conditions in Manitoba/Ontario Canada, affecting corn Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  9. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, August 1st, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): Wheat& Corn Europe: Corn Canada: Corn & wheat USA: Corn & Soy Non Cropland Not shown India: oilseeds, rice China: Corn & soy • Highlights: • US drought continues to spread and intensify • Drought in Ukraine continues to intensify in south east • Drought in Russia, Kazakhstan intensifying, affecting spring wheat and corn • Rains mitigate dry conditions in Ontario, good conditions in the western Canada Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF

  10. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, August 15th, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): Wheat& Corn Europe: Corn Canada: Corn & wheat USA: Corn & Soy Non Cropland Not shown India: oilseeds, rice China: Corn & soy • Highlights: • Drought conditions persist in US, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine • Conditions continue to improve in Manitoba/Ontario, good conditions in the western Canada Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF)

  11. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, Sept 1st, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): Wheat& Corn Europe: Corn Canada: Corn & wheat USA: Corn & Soy Non Cropland Not shown India: oilseeds, rice China: Corn & soy • Highlights: • Drought conditions start to mitigate in Russia, Kazakhstan & Ukraine • Dry conditions persist in US • Dry conditions persist in Romania Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF)

  12. Northern Hemisphere NDVI Crop Anomaly, September 6th, 2012 Black Sea Region (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan): Wheat& Corn Europe: Corn Canada: Corn & wheat USA: Corn & Soy Non Cropland Not shown India: oilseeds, rice China: Corn & soy Crop NDVI Anomaly -0.4 0 0.4 normal Worse than normal Better than normal • Crop stage sensitive to moisture and temperature • Crop stages largely based on USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF)

  13. Comparison of 2012 Drought with Conditions in Previous Years USA and Russia

  14. 2012 drought primarily affecting corn and soy crops USA NDVI Crop Anomaly July 17, 2012 Vegetation Anomaly from last year (July 2011) depicting the Texas drought USA NDVI Crop Anomaly July 17, 2011

  15. Comparing the 2012 Black Sea Region Drought to the 2010 Drought Crop Condition July 17, 2012 2012 drought affecting crop production in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan Crop Condition During the 2010 Russian Drought: (July 17 2010) Vegetation Anomaly during the 2010 Russian drought, when grain production decreased by 30% and wheat prices rose over 80% in 6 months

  16. Vegetation Index Daily Time Series 2010-2012 vs. Average Conditions (2000-2011) 2000-2011

  17. Russia: Estimated Wheat Production (MT) by District Percent of national wheat production by district Courtesy – Mark Lindeman, FAS

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